National Statistics Quality Review on International Migration Estimates

1. National Statistics Quality Review on International Migration EstimatesUpdate on taking forward the recommendations of the review Emma Wright & Giles HorsfieldPopulation and Demography DivisionOffice for National Statistics

2. Overview • Estimates of Total International Migration • Data Sources & Methodology • Trends • National Statistics Quality Review • Recommendations • Work and results to date • Future plans & further information

3. Estimates of Total International Migration • ONS produces estimates of Total International Migration (TIM) between the UK and the rest of the world: • An international migrant is defined as a person who changes his or her country of usual residence for a period of at least a year • Estimates of both inflows (immigration) and outflows (emigration)

4. Data Sources & Methodology • International Passenger Survey (IPS) • Continuous voluntary sample survey covering principle air, sea & Channel Tunnel routes • based on intentions • does not cover all migration • Estimates from IPS are adjusted for: • Switchers (those whose intentions change) • Flows between the UK & Irish Republic (Irish CSO) • Asylum seekers & their dependants (Home Office) • TIM estimates have been produced since 1991 - earlier estimates were derived from the IPS only.

5. Trends in Total International Migration Net gain Net gain Thousands of migrants Net loss

6. National Statistics Quality Review • National Statistics Quality Review on international migration, commissioned before 2001 Census results were released • Joint ONS and HO review • Review Board • representatives from ONS, HO, OGDs, academia • Aim of the review “ to make recommendations for continuation of, and changes to, the current data, methods and outputs of UK international migration statistics ”

7. Review Recommendations • Final Report published September 2003 • Main recommendations • Development of better estimates of total migration flows • Use of existing survey and admin data sources for UK geographical distribution of migration • Development of survey and admin sources on persons subject to immigration control • Build need for data on international migration into new admin data sources • Implementation Plan published January 2004

8. Work & results to date (1) International Passenger Survey: • New questions introduced in Jan 2004 on: • intended versus actual length of stay • short-term versus long-term migrants • Further questions piloted for 2005 • level of uncertainty on destination in the UK

9. Work & results to date (2) • Comparison of IPS/TIM estimates with Census and Labour Force Survey (immigrants): • Census/LFS question on place of usual residence 1 year ago • National totals • Age/sex comparisons • Regional comparisons

10. International migration to the UK

11. Age distribution of in-migrants to England and Wales in the IPS and the 2001 Census: persons Year to April 2001

12. Proportion of UK migrant inflows by region Year to April/Spring 2001

13. London: proportion of total UK in-migration, 1994-2002 LFS year to Spring; IPS and TIM previous calendar years

14. Scotland: proportion of total UK in-migration, 1994-2002 LFS year to Spring; IPS and TIM previous calendar years

15. Work & results to date (3) • Comparison of IPS/TIM estimates with NHS register sources (immigrants and emigrants): • persons registering (de-registering) with the NHS whose previous (next) place of usual residence is overseas • regional comparisons • potential for local authority breakdowns

16. International migration to/from England and Wales, 2002

17. Proportional England and Wales migrant inflows: TIM and IPS compared to NHSCR, 2002

18. Proportional England and Wales migrant outflows: TIM and IPS compared to NHSCR, 2002

19. Work & results to date (4) • Comparison of IPS/TIM emigrant estimates with receiving country immigrant statistics: • Difficulty in making such comparisons is well documented • Comparisons will focus first on EU 15, Australia, New Zealand, USA, Canada, South Africa • So far, 13 of these 20 countries, have agreed to take part in the study

20. Work & results to date (5) • Development of new data sources - requirements for migration statistics fed into: • 2011 Census • Continuous Population Survey • Citizen’s Information Project

21. Home Office research • Improved combining of IPS and HO data - investigation underway of coverage of groups subject to immigration control in IPS - asylum seekers, visitor switchers • Comparison of statistics on persons subject to immigration control and landing card data with IPS data on non-EU immigrants • Research into estimating unauthorised migrant stocks and flows • Development of longitudinal survey of immigrants • Feeding migration statistics requirements into development of enhanced arrival and departure recording systems and ID cards

22. Future Plans • Research work on IPS - non-response, emigration filter shifts, new questions, etc • Further work on use of LFS and NHSCR data to aid distribution of immigrants geographically • Further comparisons of emigrant estimates with overseas immigrant estimates • Investigation of administrative sources (e.g. DWP, DVLA) • Research into methods for combining data sources (ONS Methods Group)

23. Further information • Quality review report and Implementation Plan available on National Statistics website: http://www.statistics.gov.uk/methods_quality/ quality_review/population.asp • Annual Reference Volume http://www.statistics.gov.uk/downloads/ theme_population/MN_no_29_v3.pdf • Any further queries: emma.wright@ons.gov.uk giles.horsfield@ons.gov.uk