Meteorological Analysis and Prediction Laboratory a.k.a. “The Forecasting Lab” – Who we are

1. Meteorological Analysis and Prediction Laboratory a.k.a. “The Forecasting Lab” – Who we are Gary Lackmann Megan Gentry Ph.D. student (MS) Christian Cassell (MS) Kelly Mahoney Ph.D. student (MS) Kevin Hill Ph.D student (MS) Richard Barnhill undergrad researcher Also (not pictured): Adam Baker (MS) Blair Holloway (MS) Morgan Silverman (MS) Chris Hill (Ph.D.)

2. What we do… Meteorological Analysis & Prediction Laboratory Objectives: Enhance understanding & improve forecasting of high-impact weather systems via observational and theoretical analysis, formulation & refinement of conceptual models, & improvements to NWP models Collaborations with NCEP, NWS emphasized Winter Storms Tropical Cyclones Flood Forecasting NWP Models

3. Lake-effect snowstorm, Buffalo, NY What we study… Flash flood, Centennial Campus Hurricane Opal, Gulf of Mexico ‘95 Ice storm during cold-air damming, 2002, Apex NC Convective storms, Apex, NC Quebec ice storm, 1/’97

4. Use of Numerical Models… • Numerical models increasingly used in weather analysis & prediction • In high-impact events (rare), model assumptions not always justified • Objectives and approach: • Diagnose, understand atmospheric processes in high impact weather events • Examine process representation in model atmosphere • Seek ways to improve model, ideally leading to more accurate forecasts or simulations • Alert model users to deficiencies, process recognition

5. Identifying Research Problems • Sometimes brought to us by NWS forecasters; more likely to notice when model predictions fail in given situations: • Appalachian cold-air damming • Ice storms • Heavy precipitation events • Convective storms • Sometimes discover missing or misrepresented processes via other means: • Precipitation mass sink effect • Representing turbulence over windy oceans, esp. during hurricanes • Combination of theoretical analysis, modeling, observational analysis: improve understanding, develop practical applications

6. Example of Past Collaboration: Ice Storms

7. Current Research Projects • NOAA Collaborative Science, Technology, and Applied Research program (CSTAR) • 3 Consecutive awards spanning ~10 years • Project involves 10 regional NWS offices • Many student thesis projects have led to: Operational forecasting improvements Employment opportunities in the NWS

8. Current Research Projects • DOE Climate Change Program Example WRF domain showing coverage of Atlantic MDR for a 36-km model simulation. • Collaboration with Drs. Semazzi, Xie, Aiyyer • Novel means of assessing future TC activity • Use WRF model to answer the question: What would the 2005 Atlantic hurricane season have been like in 2105?

9. Current Research Projects • NSF Convection project (collaboration with Dr. Parker) • Convective system motion is complex; forecasting challenge • Accurate forecasts important: Precipitation, severe weather • Interested in convective momentum transport: role in MCS motion? Absent in some operational model parameterizations Corfidi 1996, 2003

10. Current Activities • Involved with Unidata program, emphasis on geoscience education, visualization software, multi-disciplinary focus • Currently involved with governance at Unidata The GEON-IDV is freely available, and offers exciting 3-D graphics capabilities. This image shows earthquake locations under Mt. St. Helens Idealized simulation of Hurricane: 3-D isosurfaces of potential temperature (blue), rainwater (yellow), and plan plot of SLP generated with Unidata’s Integrated Data Viewer (IDV)

11. Current Activities • 2006 Summer workshop, with 80 Geoscience educators • Theme was “Models as Educational Tools” • See article in July BAMS for more details

12. Models as Teaching Tools Topic: Scales of atmospheric adjustment, Rossby radius of deformation, tropical cyclogenesis Idealized model simulation, small initial disturbance Idealized model simulation, larger initial disturbance

13. Philosophies and Emphases • Encourage graduate students to help write proposals, especially for Ph.D. students • Support undergraduate research • Collaborate with NWS forecasters, scientists at National Centers (NCEP/HPC, NSSL/SPC) • I like to stay involved in the research • Why should students have all the fun? • Or, am I just a micromanager?

14. Typically 1- 4 undergraduate research projects Current Undergrad Researchers Richard Barnhill Bryce Tyner Chris Webster Mallory Nicholls Monica Laureano (w/ SCO)

15. Collaborations • Lab located in RIII building, Centennial Campus – facilitates interaction with NWS • Have also taken on consulting work with Progress Energy • Collaboration with scientists at National Centers (NCEP/HPC, NSSL/SPC) • Doing some work with RENCI (w/ SCO) • Collaboration with Greg Fishel, WRAL on NWP projects

16. Where do our students get jobs? • National Weather Service field offices • National Centers for Environmental Prediction • Hydrometeorological Prediction Center • Tropical Prediction Center • Private sector companies • River Forecast Center • Military services (Air Force) • Often “applied” interests; skills with modeling, data analysis and manipulation market well

17. A typical day in the lab? Snowbird, UT for the AMS conference in July… Kevin likes to keep things neat in the lab

18. What we do when computers misbehave…

19. Acknowledgements Amazingly good grad students Collaborations with scientists at NWS, NSSL, NCEP, other agencies who have supported and utilized our research Funding from the NSF, NOAA, NWS, and DOE has made it possible to organize this research group Thanks to the GSA for organizing this symposium, and to you for your attention