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Poverty vs Public policy. * India doesn't have a poverty estimate now * It doesn't have a poverty line * But most of the programmes are targeted at poor * Does this mean development programmes will miss them?. Poverty vs Public policy. India faces a tough question: how to measure poverty?
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Poverty vs Public policy * India doesn't have a poverty estimate now * It doesn't have a poverty line * But most of the programmes are targeted at poor * Does this mean development programmes will miss them?
Poverty vs Public policy India faces a tough question: how to measure poverty? In three years three expert groups In six months, twice the estimates rejected First time, poverty line makes headlines
How poverty is measured? Poverty line: 2400 kcal/day/person for rural; 2200kcal for urban Poverty estimate: Consumption expenditure is the proxy for income Poverty programmes: A separate survey finds out poor households
Line of contention Poverty line is never meant for targeting programmes It is always vague in its degree But 1997 – post-liberalisation – saw two Indias emerging; APL and BPL There are major fights on In May govt. decided to junk the poverty line
But, the poverty line is.. Rs. 22/day/person as rural Rs. 29/day/person as urban Total poor: 354 million Urban expenditure is 88 per cent higher than rural 83 million rural people survive on Rs 15 a day
Poverty forever Poverty getting chronic Natural resources are more prone to it Tribal and forested areas much more prone Access to resource is the big trigger Only 9 out of 29 progs can prevent poverty
South Asia: Repeat India * Generate 2% of world income; support 20% population * World’s fastest growing economic region; recession no show * World’s largest poor population; 50% of total * Rich in resources; very high land use * Hunger is epidemic; food insecurity increasing
An ecological entity * 60% dependence on natural resources; 95% in Nepal * 60% labours in agriculture; 90% in Nepal * Contributes 25% GDP; decreased by 20% (1960-2000) * Population dependence remains same * Livestock dependence increasing; 1 to 1.3 billion between 1990-2003 * Urbanisation increasing; thus increase in natural resources
B.M.I decreasing Forest decrease: 0.7% in 1990-2000, 0.8% in 2000-2005 Land degradation: 42% degraded; 50% of dry land under desertification Water: 40% run off; glaciers receding; water stressed by 2020 Food insecurity increasing; 50% by 2010
Global ramifications If SA can't do it, world will not do it Chronic poverty worries the world Can block Africa development But, India holds lessons: good and bad If India can do, all can do it