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Briefing to Premier & Cabinet 18 October 2010

The briefing highlights the record rainfall during September and the dominance of La Nina in Queensland. It emphasizes the likelihood of a fairly active cyclone season and continued above-average rainfall. The briefing also mentions the difficulty in predicting cyclone tracks and river flooding.

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Briefing to Premier & Cabinet 18 October 2010

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  1. Briefing to Premier & Cabinet 18 October 2010

  2. Very Wet during 2010

  3. Record Rainfall during September

  4. Rainfall Totals for week ending 14 October with some local falls 300-400 mm over the SE corner

  5. Southern Oscillation Index La Nina El Nino

  6. 7 TCs + Cat 3 TC DAVID makes landfall Two Cat 4-5 TCs – Mackay & Innisfail Cat 3 TC AIVU makes landfall Only 4 occasions in the past 130 years when the September Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) has been 20 or greater (relatively strong La Nina) 1917, 1975, 1988 & 2010 (November 1973 ahead of the 1974 floods – SOI in mid 30s)

  7. Sea Surface Temperature Anomaly September 2010 Sea Surface Temperature Anomaly September 2009

  8. Multi-Model Ensemble – 10 Global Models October - December

  9. Multi-Model Ensemble – 4 “Best” Models October - December

  10. Rainfall Outlook for October-December

  11. (Embargoed) Rainfall Outlook for November - January NOT FOR PUBLIC RELEASE

  12. Bureau of Meteorology National Climate Centre Outlook for Tropical Cyclones in the Australian Forecast Region 2010-11

  13. At least 6 Tropical Cyclones on 11 occasions in past 50 years- but not seen since the La Nina seasons of the late 1990s

  14. El Nino Natural climate variability is a dominating factor in Queensland especially in regards to tropical cyclone and monsoonal activity La Nina

  15. Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO) - which is a good reflection of the strength of the monsoon - is the most significant event since 1985

  16. Seasonal Outlook for Queensland • This is not a run-of-the-mill La Nina • The current La Nina event is now quite strong and well established - and the majority of global computer models indicate that it will persist until at least March next year • No two La Ninas are the same although La Nina events are usually - but not always - associated with enhanced tropical cyclone activity in the Coral Sea and above normal rainfall over much of Queensland • Therefore expect with some degree of confidence a fairly active cyclone season and a continuation of the above average rains and associated flooding • Unable to predict very far in advance where cyclones will cross the coast or which rivers will flood • Many catchments are saturated so runoff is likely to occur with less rainfall than normally required

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