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The South American Monsoon System: Recent Evolution and Current Status

Learn about the recent evolution of the South American monsoon system, including current conditions, forecast predictions, and anomalous precipitation patterns. Explore detailed information and climate highlights in this update.

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The South American Monsoon System: Recent Evolution and Current Status

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  1. The South American Monsoon System: Recent Evolution and Current Status Update prepared by Climate Prediction Center / NCEP 18 September 2017 For more information, visit:http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/Global_Monsoons/American_Monsoons

  2. Outline • Highlights • Recent Evolution and Current Conditions • NCEP/GFS Model Forecasts • Climatology

  3. Highlights • Long-term rainfall deficits are present over the Amazon Basin, Brazilian Plateau and southern Brazil. • During the last 7 days, below-average precipitation was observed over areas in central and southern Brazil. Above-average precipitation was observed over portions of northern Peru, eastern Argentina, Uruguay and the extreme southern Brazil. • For Days 1-7 (18-24 September 2017), below-average precipitation is predicted over much of central and southern Brazil, as well as southern Chile. Above-average precipitation is predicted for the extreme southern Brazil, northern Uruguay, central Bolivia, Ecuador and much of Peru.

  4. Rainfall Total & Anomaly Patterns:Last 7 Days Total Anomaly During the last 7 days, below-average precipitation was observed over areas in central and southern Brazil. Above-average precipitation was observed over portions of northern Peru, eastern Argentina, Uruguay and the extreme southern Brazil.

  5. Rainfall Totals & Anomaly Patterns:Last 30 Days Total Anomaly During the last 30 days, below-average precipitation was observed over much of western Brazil. Above-average precipitation was observed over portions of northern Peru, Uruguay and eastern Argentina.

  6. BP Recent Evolution: RainfallLast 90 Days BP: Brazilian Plateau • 90-day rainfall deficits are present over Amazon Basin (~ 50 mm) , the Brazilian Plateau (~ 45 mm) and southern Brazil (~ 200 mm).

  7. Tropical Pacific and Atlantic SST Anomalies SSTs are below-average across much of the central and eastern tropical Pacific. (For details concerning El Niño – La Niña, go to the link below.) A weekly PowerPoint summarizing the ENSO Cycle: Recent Evolution, Current Status and Predictionsis available at: http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/enso.shtml

  8. Atmospheric Circulation Recent 7 days • Upper panels: During the period of 10-16 Sept. 2017, anomalous anticyclonic flow (center noted by red A) was observed over southern Brazil. • Lower panels: Anomalous sinking motion was observed over central Brazil and southern Chile. Anomalous rising motion was observed across northern Chile and Uruguay. A • Rising motion (negative omega, yellow/red shading), usually associated with wetter- than-normal conditions. • Sinking motion (positive omega, blue shading), usually associated with drier-than-normal conditions.

  9. 925-hPa Wind &Temperature Recent 30 Days Recent 7 Days During the 7-day period 07-13 May 2017, above-average temperatures were observed over much of Brazil. Low-level (~600 m above sea level) wind and temperature anomalies based on the NCEP Climate Data Assimilation Systems (CDAS) analysis. The patterns of anomalous temperature and wind at 925-hPa are usually similar to surface observations. Note: Areas with surface pressure below 925-hPa are masked out.

  10. NCEP/GFS Model Forecasts Bias-Corrected Precipitation Forecasts from 18 September 2017–Days 1-7 Total Anomaly Note: Bias correction based on last 30-day forecast error.

  11. NCEP/GFS Model Forecasts Bias-Corrected Precipitation Forecasts from 18 September 2017– Days 8-14 Total Anomaly Note: Bias correction based on last 30-day forecast error.

  12. NCEP/GFS MODEL FORECASTS • For Days 1-7 (18-24 September 2017), below-average precipitation is predicted over much of central and southern Brazil, as well as southern Chile. Above-average precipitation is predicted for the extreme southern Brazil, northern Uruguay, central Bolivia, Ecuador and much of Peru. • For Days 8-14 (25 September – 01 October 2017), below-average precipitation is predicted over central and southern Brazil, as well as portions of northern South America. Above-average precipitation is predicted over portions of southeastern Argentina and Uruguay.

  13. Forecast Verification Forecast from 04 Sep 2017 Valid for 11-17 Sep 2017 Forecast from 11 Sep 2017 Valid for 11-17 Sep 2017 Observed 11-17 Sep 2017

  14. ClimatologyRainy Season Dates ONSET DEMISE

  15. Precipitation Climatology

  16. Precipitation Climatology Animation

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