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The South American Monsoon System: Recent Evolution and Current Status

The South American Monsoon System: Recent Evolution and Current Status. Update prepared by Climate Prediction Center / NCEP 18 September 2017. For more information, visit: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/Global_Monsoons/American_Monsoons. Outline. Highlights

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The South American Monsoon System: Recent Evolution and Current Status

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  1. The South American Monsoon System: Recent Evolution and Current Status Update prepared by Climate Prediction Center / NCEP 18 September 2017 For more information, visit:http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/Global_Monsoons/American_Monsoons

  2. Outline • Highlights • Recent Evolution and Current Conditions • NCEP/GFS Model Forecasts • Climatology

  3. Highlights • Long-term rainfall deficits are present over the Amazon Basin, Brazilian Plateau and southern Brazil. • During the last 7 days, below-average precipitation was observed over areas in central and southern Brazil. Above-average precipitation was observed over portions of northern Peru, eastern Argentina, Uruguay and the extreme southern Brazil. • For Days 1-7 (18-24 September 2017), below-average precipitation is predicted over much of central and southern Brazil, as well as southern Chile. Above-average precipitation is predicted for the extreme southern Brazil, northern Uruguay, central Bolivia, Ecuador and much of Peru.

  4. Rainfall Total & Anomaly Patterns:Last 7 Days Total Anomaly During the last 7 days, below-average precipitation was observed over areas in central and southern Brazil. Above-average precipitation was observed over portions of northern Peru, eastern Argentina, Uruguay and the extreme southern Brazil.

  5. Rainfall Totals & Anomaly Patterns:Last 30 Days Total Anomaly During the last 30 days, below-average precipitation was observed over much of western Brazil. Above-average precipitation was observed over portions of northern Peru, Uruguay and eastern Argentina.

  6. BP Recent Evolution: RainfallLast 90 Days BP: Brazilian Plateau • 90-day rainfall deficits are present over Amazon Basin (~ 50 mm) , the Brazilian Plateau (~ 45 mm) and southern Brazil (~ 200 mm).

  7. Tropical Pacific and Atlantic SST Anomalies SSTs are below-average across much of the central and eastern tropical Pacific. (For details concerning El Niño – La Niña, go to the link below.) A weekly PowerPoint summarizing the ENSO Cycle: Recent Evolution, Current Status and Predictionsis available at: http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/enso.shtml

  8. Atmospheric Circulation Recent 7 days • Upper panels: During the period of 10-16 Sept. 2017, anomalous anticyclonic flow (center noted by red A) was observed over southern Brazil. • Lower panels: Anomalous sinking motion was observed over central Brazil and southern Chile. Anomalous rising motion was observed across northern Chile and Uruguay. A • Rising motion (negative omega, yellow/red shading), usually associated with wetter- than-normal conditions. • Sinking motion (positive omega, blue shading), usually associated with drier-than-normal conditions.

  9. 925-hPa Wind &Temperature Recent 30 Days Recent 7 Days During the 7-day period 07-13 May 2017, above-average temperatures were observed over much of Brazil. Low-level (~600 m above sea level) wind and temperature anomalies based on the NCEP Climate Data Assimilation Systems (CDAS) analysis. The patterns of anomalous temperature and wind at 925-hPa are usually similar to surface observations. Note: Areas with surface pressure below 925-hPa are masked out.

  10. NCEP/GFS Model Forecasts Bias-Corrected Precipitation Forecasts from 18 September 2017–Days 1-7 Total Anomaly Note: Bias correction based on last 30-day forecast error.

  11. NCEP/GFS Model Forecasts Bias-Corrected Precipitation Forecasts from 18 September 2017– Days 8-14 Total Anomaly Note: Bias correction based on last 30-day forecast error.

  12. NCEP/GFS MODEL FORECASTS • For Days 1-7 (18-24 September 2017), below-average precipitation is predicted over much of central and southern Brazil, as well as southern Chile. Above-average precipitation is predicted for the extreme southern Brazil, northern Uruguay, central Bolivia, Ecuador and much of Peru. • For Days 8-14 (25 September – 01 October 2017), below-average precipitation is predicted over central and southern Brazil, as well as portions of northern South America. Above-average precipitation is predicted over portions of southeastern Argentina and Uruguay.

  13. Forecast Verification Forecast from 04 Sep 2017 Valid for 11-17 Sep 2017 Forecast from 11 Sep 2017 Valid for 11-17 Sep 2017 Observed 11-17 Sep 2017

  14. ClimatologyRainy Season Dates ONSET DEMISE

  15. Precipitation Climatology

  16. Precipitation Climatology Animation

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