Adaptation of Biodiversity to Climate Change (AF04)

1. Adaptation of Biodiversity to Climate Change(AF04) Report the the AIACC regional meeting Pretoria, March 2003 Bob Scholes, Albert van Jaarsveld, Graham von Maltitz, Stephanie Freitag, Mike Rutherford, Guy Midgley, Barend Erasmus, Jean Nel, Jenny Cooper CSIR, SA National Parks, National Botanical Institute, Univ Stellenbosh

2. What is the problem? • Country studies, regional studies and IPCC have confirmed that biodiversity is at risk from climate change in southern Africa • Biodiversity is important for the economy, for human welfare and in its own right • We have no guidance regarding the best way to minimise the impact

3. Key species analysis Aloe marlothii Source: Rutherford et al, National Botanical Institute

4. Biome analysis Source: Rutherford et al 2000, SA Country Study, NBI

5. Species richness analysis Current With climate change Land transformation overlaid Source: van Jaarsveld et al Univ Pretoria

6. Objectives of AF04AIACC study: Adaptation of biodiversity to climate change in Southern Africa • Advance the state of the science • Quantify adaptation options wrt • Cost effectiveness • Robustness • Human welfare and social acceptability • Develop tools for wider use • Develop regional capacity and awareness

7. Evolution of approaches Conservation biology Climate impact studies Biome statistical Equilibrium Biome model Equilibrium Species model Equilibrium Func type model Island biogeography Dynamic Species model Dynamic Func type model Optimisation AF04 Dynamic, multispecies Fragmented landscape

8. Adaptation optionsnot mutually exclusive Ex situ Conser- vation Size and Shape of parks ‘Matrix Manage- ment’ Facilitated dispersal Do Nothing How many species does each option protect? At what cost? How robust are the options to different climates ?

9. 3 2 1 Approach • Three deliberately different case studies 1.Cape floral kingdom: • data rich, megadiverse, mountainous,fragmented 2.Succulent Karoo: • Diverse, geological specificity, large distances 3.NE Lowveld • Ecosystem response, habitat, productivity

10. Cape Floral Kingdom • very detailed and accurate distribution • records for some taxa (Proteaceae) • Sophisticated conservation planning based on • stationary climate Potential future distribution Current distribution Farmland Protected area Possible future Protected area

11. Succulent karoo Dispersal distance Propagule number Pop 1 Pop 2 Pop 3 Time to maturity Barriers of unsuitable habitat Migration of climate envelope

12. Model path Model constraints Model entities Carnivores (Climate), prey, habitat Birds: Large and small raptors, scavengers Mammals: Individual species Birds: functional groups Mammals: species, functional groups for small mammals Herbivores (Climate), food, habitat Habitat structure (woody plants, trees, shrubs and grass) Climate, soil Plants NE Lowveld

13. Timeline Jan 2002 Start Literature review and planning Nov 02 Methods workshop Bioclimatic envelope modelling Optimisation studies Jul 03 Completion of Cape Study Dispersal modelling Jan 04Completion of succulent karoo study Ecosystem modelling Jul 2004 Completion of NE Lowveld study Oct 04 Workshop for conservation planners Dec 2004 Final reporting End