Established 1980 Sponsors: WMO (1980+), ICSU (1980+) and IOC (1992+) Objectives

1. WCRP Established 1980 • Sponsors: WMO (1980+), ICSU (1980+) and IOC (1992+) • Objectives • To determine the predictability of climate • To determine the effect of human activities on climate 2005 - 1980 = 25!

2. WCRP Domains • Global Energy and Water Cycle Experiment • Climate and Cryosphere • Climate Variability and Predictability • Stratospheric Processes and their Relation to Climate SPARC Where does integration take place? GEWEX CLIVAR CliC GEWEX CliC CLIVAR SPARC

3. Arctic Ocean Model Intercomparison Project (AOMIP) • Arctic Regional Climate Model Intercomparison Project (ARMIP) • Asian-Australian Monsoon Atmospheric GCM Intercomparison Project • Atmospheric Model Intercomparison Project (AMIP) • Atmospheric Tracer Transport Model Intercomparison Project (TransCom) • Carbon-Cycle Model Linkage Project (CCMLP) • Climate of the Twentieth Century Project (C20C) • Cloud Model Feedback Intercomparison Project • Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP) • Coupled Carbon Cycle Climate Model Intercomparison Project (C4MIP) • Dynamics of North Atlantic Models (DYNAMO) • Ecosystem Model-Data Intercomparison (EMDI) • Earth system Models of Intermediate Complexity (EMICs) • ENSO Intercomparison Project (ENSIP) • GEWEX Atmospheric Boundary Layer Study (GABLS) • GEWEX Cloud System Study (GCSS) • GCM-Reality Intercomparison Project for SPARC (GRIPS) • Global Land-Atmosphere Coupling Experiment (GLACE) • Global Soil Wetness Project (GSWP) • Models and Measurements II (MMII): Stratospheric Transport • Ocean Carbon-Cycle Model Intercomparison Project (OCMIP) • Ocean Model Intercomparison Project (OMIP) • Paleo Model Intercomparison Project (PMIP) • Project for Intercomparison of Landsurface Parameterization Schemes (PILPS) • Potsdam DGVM Intercomparison Project • Potsdam NPP Model Intercomparison Project • Project to Intercompare Regional Climate Simulations (PIRCS) • Regional Climate Model Inter-comparison Project for Asia (RMIP) • Sea-Ice Model Intercomparison Project (SIMIP) • Snow Models Intercomparison Project (SnowMIP ) • Stretched Grid Model Intercomparison Project (SGMIP) • Study of Tropical Oceans In Coupled models (STOIC) • WCRP F11 Intercomparison • WCRP Radon Intercomparison • WCRP Scavenging Tracer Intercomparison • Ice sheet Model Intercomparison Project • Prediction of Regional scenarios and Uncertainties for Defining EuropeaN Climate change risks and Effects (PRUDENCE) • Seasonal Prediction Model Intercomparison Project-2 (SMIP-2) and Seasonal Prediction Model Intercomparison Project-2/Historical Forecast (SMIP-2/HFP)

4. Past activities/achievements: TOGA World Climate Research Programme (1980-2005)

5. TOGA  CLIVAR TRITON TAO PIRATA

6. WOCE World Climate Research Programme (1980-2005) Past activities/achievements: • TOGA

7. The WOCE -> CLIVAR/ARGO

8. ACSYS GEWEX-I SPARC Climate assessments and projections Atmospheric reanalyses and new data sets CliC Where does integration take place? World Climate Research Programme (1980-2005) Past activities/achievements: • TOGA • WOCE

9. What is the WCRP’slong-range vision? Data and ModellingInfrastructure Coupled PhysicalBiologicalChemicalModels EarthSystemModels Operational Climate Observing System Operational ClimatePrediction System Regional ClimateAnomalyPrediction

10. Facilitate converting accumulated achievements into prediction Address seamless prediction/projection problem - days, weeks, seasons, years, decades, centuries, bridging with climate assessments (like IPCC) Address prediction of the broader climate/Earth System Demonstrate the use to society of WCRP-enabled predictions NWP Thorpex LRF IPCC DAS hours, days, weeks, seasons, years, decades, centuries WCRP scientific challenges

11. COPES Coordinated Observation & Prediction of the Earth System AIM • To facilitate prediction of the climate/earth system variability and change for use in an increasing range of practicalapplications of direct relevance, benefit and value to society DEMETER (effect of ensembles for single-model and multi-model approach) Goals • Determine what aspects of the climate/earth system are and are not predictable, at weekly, seasonal, interannual and decadal through to century time-scales • Utilise improving observing systems, data assimilation techniques and models of the climate/earth system (-> IGBP, GCOS, NWP centres, …)

12. COPES Coordinated Observation & Prediction of the Earth System Feasibility and expected skill of seasonal prediction in all regions of the globe with currently available models and data (this should be repeated regularly) Techniques for ensemble prediction of climate variability and change Scientific basis for, best approaches to, current skill of projections of regional climate change at several time-scales Well-tested, detailed chemistry-climate prediction and projection models and procedures (with the International Global Atmospheric Chemistry project (IGAC) of IGBP) Realistic simulations of an Ice Age Cycle (in cooperation with the Past Global Changes (PAGES) project of IGBP)

13. COPES Coordinated Observation & Prediction of the Earth System Focus on reducing the range of uncertainty of climate sensitivity exhibited by models Understanding of arid and desert climates and focus on the skill of climate predictions for them  Understanding of monsoon climates worldwide and determine their predictability Collaborate with IPCC Working Group 1 so as to enable the science that it will review in its Fourth Assessment Report

14. COPES Coordinated Observation & Prediction of the Earth System Determine how, why and where modes of climate variability change in response to anthropogenic forcing and longer-term climate change caused by it Assess the extent to which intraseasonal oscillations are predictable in coupled models Determine the space-time scales on which the ocean temperature, salinity and circulation can be predicted Increase the accuracy in projections of sea-level rise Coordinated reanalyses of the components of the climate system, with regular, coordinated updates

15. COPES Coordinated Observation & Prediction of the Earth System COPES modelling strategy: 1.Experimentation with current GCMs to:  a.provide the material for IPCC and other international assessments through sensitivity studies, climate hindcasts and projections of future change; b.assimilate and predict the coupled system on intraseasonal to interannual (and eventually longer) time-scales.  2.Continued experimentation (including ‘retrospective predictions’ at various time-scales) and process studies with current GCMs and comparison with observations to improve and validate the models used in 1.

16. COPES Coordinated Observation & Prediction of the Earth System COPES modelling issues (cont.): 3.Development of the ability to perform more detailed global modelling of the carbon cycle, hydrology, dynamic vegetation, tropospheric and stratospheric chemistry, cryosphere, ocean biology, lateral transport of elements and a range of other biogeochemical processes (requiring observations, process studies and modelling of the individual systems). 4.Work on extending GCMs to include each of these additional components of the Earth system in turn, as a basis for the studies in 1. 5.Development of and work with more holistic models (incl. EMICs) to: a.study the interactive aspects of the natural system; b.simulate longer time-scales, e.g. Ice Age Cycles; c.compare and validate with GCMs where possible.  6.Development of models of the interaction between the human and natural systems based on the more holistic models. 7.Use of simpler models to help in the design of the diagnosis of the more complex coupled models.