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National Severe Weather Services

National Severe Weather Services. Dr. Russell Schneider NOAA-NWS Storm Prediction Center. opportunities, enhancements & plans. Briefing for NWS Partners. 20 June 2007. Outline. Product Refinement Watch Outline Update (WOU) frequency New Products & Service Improvements

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National Severe Weather Services

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  1. National Severe Weather Services Dr. Russell Schneider NOAA-NWS Storm Prediction Center opportunities, enhancements & plans Briefing for NWS Partners 20 June 2007

  2. Outline • Product Refinement • Watch Outline Update (WOU) frequency • New Products & Service Improvements • Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook • Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook • Upcoming Extended Range Product Enhancements • GIS-friendly latitude-longitude “points” products • NDFD compatible grids • Standardized MD Headlines • Watch Hazard Probabilities

  3. Watch Update Refinement Products should be consistent: National overview from SPC Local nuances from WFOs WOU & WCN

  4. Watch Update Refinement • Option 1: Increase Frequency of Current WOU Product • Option 2: Create New “Digital Services” Product with Continuous Updates (VTEC & UGC only) • Option 3: Focus Efforts on Synchronization of Current Watch Update Process • (Watch Status, WCN & WOU updates) Discussion and Suggestions Welcome !!!

  5. Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook Issued: 0935 UTC 18 May 2007 valid: 21-26 May 2007 Description: Line drawn for areas where there is at least a 30% probability for severe thunderstorms (equivalent to a high end slight risk threat). Issued daily with graphic & discussion.

  6. Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook Issued: 0542 AM CDT Tue June 12, 2007 valid: 14-20 June 2007 Description: Day 3-8 forecast of “critical” fire weather conditions including potential dry lightning busts. Issued daily with graphic & discussion

  7. Planned Service Enhancements • Day 3-8 Fire & Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlooks • GIS friendly latitude-longitude “points” product • NDFD compatible grids DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK AREAL OUTLINE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0424 AM CDT TUE JUN 05 2007 VALID TIME 051200Z - 061200Z FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK POINTS DAY 1 ... FIRE WEATHER CATEGORICAL ... CRIT 32441455 34121549 35631774 36631762 37661682 38771577 40721396 41281213 41271035 40530821 39940761 38930709 38310686 37540700 35160696 32680674 31720705 EXTM 34791446 35221543 35871584 36821607 37831525 39111309 39051244 38361191 37071216 36251257 35041357 34791446 &&

  8. Planned Service Enhancements • Day 3-8 Fire & Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlooks • GIS friendly latitude-longitude “points” product • NDFD compatible grids DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK AREAL OUTLINE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0424 AM CDT TUE JUN 05 2007 VALID TIME 051200Z - 061200Z FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK POINTS DAY 1 ... FIRE WEATHER CATEGORICAL ... CRIT 32441455 34121549 35631774 36631762 37661682 38771577 40721396 41281213 41271035 40530821 39940761 38930709 38310686 37540700 35160696 32680674 31720705 EXTM 34791446 35221543 35871584 36821607 37831525 39111309 39051244 38361191 37071216 36251257 35041357 34791446 && D4-5 D6

  9. Do all Convective Watches have the same risk? No Watch Hazard Probabilities Tornado (2+ reports): 80% EF2+ Tornado: 50% Wind (10+ reports): 90% 75 mph Wind: 40% Hail (10+ reports): 95+% 2”+ Hail: 70% Hail & Wind (6+ reports): 95+% PDS Tornado Watch: 2006 Tennessee Outbreak

  10. Watch Hazard Probability Product (WWP) Watch Hazard Probabilities Tornado (2+ reports): 80% EF2+ Tornado: 50% Wind (10+ reports): 90% 75 mph Wind: 40% Hail (10+ reports): 95+% 2”+ Hail: 70% Hail & Wind (6+ reports): 95+% Easily Decodable Text Product .. that includes hazards & other key watch attributes

  11. Mesoscale Discussion HeadersStandardized [Mesoscale Discussion Product Header Deleted] CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY VALID 172144Z - 172315Z [Text Deleted] 47400171 48260054 47539865 45319816 44389858 44380028 46330153 Concerning Lat-Lon

  12. Permitted MD Headers SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY (less than 30%) SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE (30-60%) SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY (60-90%) SEVERE POTENTIAL...TORNADO WATCH LIKELY (60-90%) SEVERE POTENTIAL...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH LIKELY (60-90%) SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH NEEDED SOON (>90%) SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH TORNADO WATCH HEAVY RAINFALL OUTLOOK UPGRADE 01Z OUTLOOK UPDATE BLIZZARD HEAVY SNOW FREEZING RAIN WINTER MIXED PRECIPITATION

  13. www.spc.noaa.gov

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