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Climate and Water - Presentation of climate change and its impacts on quantity and quality of water

Climate and Water - Presentation of climate change and its impacts on quantity and quality of water. Harri Koivusalo 1 , Teemu Kokkonen 2 , Ari Jolma 3 , Hanne Laine 2 , Olli Varis 2. 1 Finnish Forest Research Institute, Joensuu Research Unit

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Climate and Water - Presentation of climate change and its impacts on quantity and quality of water

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  1. Climate and Water - Presentation of climate change and its impacts on quantity and quality of water Harri Koivusalo1, Teemu Kokkonen2, Ari Jolma3, Hanne Laine2, Olli Varis2 1 Finnish Forest Research Institute, Joensuu Research Unit 2 Helsinki University of Technology, Laboratory of Water Resources 3 Helsinki University of Technology, Laboratory of Geoinformation and Positioning Technology

  2. Terms of reference • Considering the potential impacts of climate variability and change on water resources, as well as uncertainties involved in assessing the impacts • To study and report how scenarios provided by regional climate models should be presented to the end users dealing with water resources management • To study and report how assessments based on environmental simulation models and regional climate scenarios can be condensed and presented to the end-users in a readily comprehensible form • To liaise with and receive feedback from those experts of the Association working on assessing the effects of climate change on water resources

  3. PROJECTION Developing scenarios of the future climate ATTRIBUTION Quantifying the effects of historical changes in the climate on lake dynamics SIMULATION Modelling the effects of future changes in the climate on lake dynamics PREDICTION Assessing the impact of the projected changes on lake dynamics - IMPLICATION Policy and socio-economics Background Climate and lake impacts in Europe (2003-2005) • Participants • Project outline

  4. Climate and lake modelling in CLIME Weathergenerator Observations HadAM3UK Metoffice PROBE HadRM3pUK Metoffice ECHAM4/OPYC3Max-Planck, Germany RCAOSMHI GWLF PROTECH

  5. CLIME-DSS • Visualises climate change across Europe • Summarises how climate change affects lake characteristics • Visualise the difference between control (1961-1990) and future (2071-2100) periods • How successful was the presentation in CLIME-DSS?

  6. Expert opinions about dissemination of climate change Esurveyspro survey service http://www.esurveyspro.com

  7. Respondents • Internet survey to > 160 people in RA VI countries • 37 replies

  8. Wintertime prepitation (RCAO-E) • Clarity of the map-based presentation of precipitation?

  9. Different ways representing climate change impact on precipitation • Change between future (2070-2100) and control (1960-1990) periods • Absolute precipitation in future

  10. Summertime air temperature • Clarity of the map-based presentation of air temperature?

  11. Different ways representing climate change impact on air temperature • Change between future (2070-2100) and control (1960-1990) periods • Absolute air temperature in future

  12. Clarity in presenting seasonal values of hydrometeorological variables in selected location?

  13. Clarity in presenting range of seasonal runoff in selected location?

  14. Clarity in presenting change in climate depicted as climate migration from one region to another?

  15. Relevance of selected lake variables

  16. Different ways representing climate change impact on water quality • Change between future and control nutrient level • Change between future and control algae level

  17. Change in hydrometeorological variables → Change in a lake variable Current level of a lake variable in a season Projected level of a lake variable

  18. Probability distributions characterise current and projected levels of a lake variable

  19. Clarity in presenting the current and predicted distributions for average summer time DOC concentration?

  20. Conclusions • Map-based tool well suited for disseminating RCM results • view large areas or select a point for detailed examination • Coloured visualisations and tabulated information equally informative and useful • Methods behind the visualisations and tables should be more transparent • Web pages: http://clime.tkk.fi/jrc/ • Contact: • Ari.Jolma@tkk.fi • Harri.Koivusalo@metla.fi

  21. Future activities on “Climate and Water” in WMO RA VI WGH • Role of reservoirs in the changing climate • Implications on water balance, greenhouse gases, etc. • Exploitation of global GIS data • Reservoirs and climate change in RA VI countries • Adaptation to climate change • Water resources management in changing climate • Use of reservoirs in the adaptation • Flood risk mitigation, drought risk alleviation

  22. MANY THANKS TO ALL RESPONDENTS River Iijoki, 65°22’ 26°47’, 27 Nov 08

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