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Impacts of Climate Change on Water Resources

Impacts of Climate Change on Water Resources. G.B. Pant INDIAN INSTITUTE OF TROPICAL METEOROLOGY Pune. OUTLINE. Objectives Research Tasks Indian rainfall variability Baseline precipitation analysis Precipitation climatology of major river basins

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Impacts of Climate Change on Water Resources

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  1. Impacts of Climate Change on Water Resources G.B. Pant INDIAN INSTITUTE OF TROPICAL METEOROLOGY Pune

  2. OUTLINE • Objectives • Research Tasks • Indian rainfall variability • Baseline precipitation analysis • Precipitation climatology of major river basins • Spatio-temporal variability of precipitation over major river basins • Evaluation of HadRM2 simulations of precipitation over major river basins

  3. Objectives • Analysis of spatio-temporal variability of precipitation over major river basins of India • Study of past changes in water availability and their sensitivity to climate variability and land-use/land-cover changes • Evaluation of regional climate model simulations of precipitation • Study of past changes in water quality • Development of future scenarios for water availability and quality under different climate change scenarios

  4. Research Tasks • Identification of target river basins • Baseline precipitation analysis: Precipitation climatology of major river basins; Spatio-temporal variability of precipitation • Evaluation of HadRM2 simulations of monthly/daily precipitation over major river basins • Case studies of past changes in water availability and quality in relation to climate and land-use/land-cover changes • Hydrometeorological analysis of HadRM2 simulations for major river basins • Water availability scenarios for major river basins including the scenarios for the impacts of land use and cover • Identification of critical areas and frequency/impacts of extreme events

  5. Mean Rainfall PatternsData Source: CMAP (1979-2000) Summer Monsoon (mm/season) Annual (mm/year)

  6. Indian Summer Monsoon Contribution to Annual Rainfall and its VariabilityData Source : CMAP (1979-2000) Monsoon/Annual (%) Coefficient of Variation (%)

  7. The Stability of the Indian Summer Monsoon

  8. Temporal scales of monsoon variability Features Factors

  9. Rainfall Data • Homogeneous monthly rainfall data set for 306 stations (1871-2001) • Daily rainfall data at 500-1000 raingauge stations during 1901-90 (variable network)

  10. Change in Raingauge Network Density (1871-1992)

  11. Raingauge Network for Daily Rainfall Data

  12. All-India Summer Monsoon Rainfall (1871-2001)(Based on IITM Homogeneous Monthly Rainfall Data Set)

  13. Long-term Trends in Indian Summer Monsoon Rainfall

  14. Major River Basins of India

  15. Identification of Target River Basins • 66 notable river basins • 3 large river basins identified : Ganga, Godavari and Krishna • Summer monsoon main source of water for all the three basins

  16. Seasona Precipitation : GANGA

  17. Seasonal Precipitation : GODAVARI

  18. Seasonal Precipitation : KRISHNA

  19. Variation of Basin-mean Precipitation: GANGA

  20. Variation of Basin-mean Precipitation: GODAVARI

  21. Variation of Basin-mean Precipitation: KRISHNA

  22. The Hadley Centre Regional Climate Models(HadRM2/HadRM3H) • High-resolution limited area model driven at its lateral and sea-surface boundaries by output from HadCM • Formulation identical to HadAM • Grid : 0.44° x 0.44° • One-way nesting • Climate change simulations performed by the Hadley Centre using HadRM2 for the Indian region • HadRM3H installed at IITM; Climate change simulations and scenario development will be performed at IITM

  23. All-India Mean Monthly Rainfall

  24. All-India Seasonal Rainfall

  25. All-India mean Surface Air Temperature

  26. HadRM2 Simulations: Seasonal Precipitation (Control)

  27. HadRM2 Simulations: Seasonal Surface Air Temperature (Control)

  28. HadRM2 Simulations: Seasonal Precipitation (GHG-Control)

  29. HadRM2 Simulations: Seasonal Surface Air Temperature (GHG-Control)

  30. State-wise mean precipitation scenarios : HadRM2

  31. State-wise mean monsoon precipitation change scenarios : HadRM2

  32. State-wise Mean Temperature Scenarios : HadRM2

  33. State-wise Mean Annual Temperature Change Scenarios : HadRM2

  34. Godavari Annual Cycles of Rainfall in Major River Basins of India Ganga Krishna

  35. CONCLUSIONS • Coupled atmosphere-ocean models consistently indicate general warming over India, by about 2° to 4°C from 1990 to 2090. • The models also indicate enhanced rainfall conditions over India in a greenhouse gas increase scenario; however, there is some disagreement among the models on rainfall changes • The models consistently indicate substantial increase in monsoon precipitation over northwest India. • Significant potential for regionalization; work in progress.

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