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The Struggle for Primacy in a Global Society

The Struggle for Primacy in a Global Society. Lecture Objectives . Rise and fall of great powers – the role of politics, economics, and culture Characteristics of a great power and a failing power Challenges facing the United States Imperial overstretch and its examples U.S. – China rivalry

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The Struggle for Primacy in a Global Society

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  1. The Struggle for Primacy in a Global Society GPST 3000 - Stojek - Verona 2013

  2. Lecture Objectives • Rise and fall of great powers – the role of politics, economics, and culture • Characteristics of a great power and a failing power • Challenges facing the United States • Imperial overstretch and its examples • U.S. – China rivalry • Some Military History of Europe…it’s summer after all GPST 3000 - Stojek - Verona 2013

  3. Power and Change Power transition theory- the distribution-of-power between countries changes clustering in different actors • Rise of China and fall of the United States Multipolar - Several hegemons (the leading country in an international system) • Before WWII, US, Britain, France, Germany, Japan, Italy, and the Soviet Union were great powers. Bipolarity – two hegemons • After the WWII - US and Soviet Union remained dominant countries … Then when the Soviet Union fell, the US dominated and created Unipolarity • Military power is unipolar with the US dominating, but • Other forms of Power are multipolar: China, Western Europe, Japan GPST 3000 - Stojek - Verona 2013

  4. What determines States’ Power? • Geographic area • Population • Natural resources • Intelligence capabilities • Quality of national leadership • Level of technological/educational achievement • Political transparency • “Soft power” ??? GPST 3000 - Stojek - Verona 2013

  5. Rise and fall of great powers • Urbanization – concentration of talent and diversity • Geography – a natural buffer/resource store • Ex: Britain and the United States • War - Can increase/decrease the power of a nation • Hubris –Overestimation of power and expanding military power  eroding of states’ economic base • The Lippmann Gap or imperial overstretch • Imperial overstretch – disparity in state’s global ambitions and their resources to fulfill such ambitions GPST 3000 - Stojek - Verona 2013

  6. Rise and fall of great powers • Population pressures • the amount of resources a state has • Too much pressure can lead to a weaker state or increased frustration (Germany in 1930s) • Urbanization • Synonymous with freedom and innovation • Attracts diverse groups of people thus improving the capabilities of a rising power • Commitment to tolerance, freedom, and trust • Inequality and frustration (Failed States) GPST 3000 - Stojek - Verona 2013

  7. Characteristics of a great power • Effective power conversion • Power conversion – capacity to change potential power (measured by available resources) into realized power; determined by changed behaviors of others • Good structural, institutional, and situational leadership • High power capability (economic/military strength and political effectiveness) • Build institutions to legitimize their control • Democratic enlargement • The internalization of values, beliefs, and norms (soft power) GPST 3000 - Stojek - Verona 2013

  8. Why Decline? • Hubris • Imperial overstretch • Failure to commit to freedom, tolerance, and trust • Failed or lack of leadership GPST 3000 - Stojek - Verona 2013

  9. “The "military conflict" referred to in the book's subtitle is therefore always examined in the context of "economic change." The triumph of any one Great Power in this period, or the collapse of another, has usually been the consequence of lengthy fighting by its armed forces; but it has also been the consequences of the more or less efficient utilization of the state's productive economic resources in wartime, and, further in the background, of the way in which that state's economy had been rising or falling, relative to the other leading nations, in the decades preceding the actual conflict. For that reason, how a Great Power's position steadily alters in peacetime is as important to this study as how it fights in wartime” Paul Kennedy, The Rise… p. xv

  10. Challenges facing the U.S. • Global economic crisis and financial recession • Emerging market economies – China, India, Brazil, Russia (BRIC) • Alliance (Treaty of Friendship and Cooperation) between China and Russia to challenge American security • Non-state actors • “…weak powers confront the strong in unorthodox ways” (35) • Asymmetrical warfare • Ex: suicide bombings and other terrorist acts • “Empires are usually their own worst enemy.” (36) GPST 3000 - Stojek - Verona 2013

  11. U.S. – China rivalry • China’s growing power + America’s decreasing power = antagonizing relationship • China’s growth was spurred by: • Deliberate, draconian policiesto reduce population growth • Adaptation of free market • Increased privatization of economy • Promotion of entrepreneurship • Efforts to attract foreign investments • China used the U.S. war on terror and financial crisis to further their growth GPST 3000 - Stojek - Verona 2013

  12. 4: A very brief (military) history of (Western) Europe

  13. Euro-Quiz UGA à Paris - Meyer

  14. Euro-Quiz UGA à Paris - Meyer

  15. Euro-Quiz UGA à Paris - Meyer

  16. Euro-Quiz UGA à Paris - Meyer

  17. Euro-Quiz UGA à Paris - Meyer

  18. Size & latitude UGA à Paris - Meyer www.pptpalooza.net/PPTs/EHAP/GeographyOfEurope.ppt

  19. Regions UGA à Paris - Meyer

  20. Climate

  21. (Major) ReligiousGroups

  22. Members of the Indo-European Language Family UGA à Paris - Meyer

  23. Brief (military) history of Europe • National Identity: “Who are we?” (and who are we not?) • Modern System of States: “What is our territory?” http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Rvlp7cBWwIw • Byzantine Empire (≈395-1453) • Foundation & Spread of Islam (622 (Hijra) - ) • Reconquista (722-1492 ) • Holy Roman Empire (962–1806) • Golden Horde (1240s-1500) • Ottoman Empire (1299-1923 (Sieges of Vienna: 1529/1683)) 3 basic forms of “world” political systems • Imperial System • Feudal System • Anarchic System of States UGA à Paris - Meyer

  24. 1. Imperial System Characteristics • One government controls most of “the world” = lack of a roughly equal opponent • “Border regions”  boundaries (life cycle) World Empire vs. Regional Empire British Empire (1920s) Roman Empire (200AD) Aspiring & Failed Empires • Wilhelmine & Nazi Germany, Imperial Japan, etc.. • Dutch Empire(?), USSR(?), United States (?) Sources: http://www.worldhistory.timemaps.com/images/AD200/RomanEmpire.jpg, ttp://worldroundup.files.wordpress.com/2009/07/british_empire_1920s.png

  25. 2. Feudal System Characteristics • “Middle”/“Dark” Ages ≈ 400 – 1600 • Loyalties not fixed primarily by territorial boundaries • Multiple loyalties: king, local lords, church, etc. • Church controls 1/3 of the land tries to curb feudal warfare (e.g. only 40 “combat days”/year) • Henry IV: “Walk to Canossa” (1077) • Henry VIII: Anglican Church (1534) UGA à Paris - Meyer Source: http://www.declarepeace.org.uk/captain/murder_inc/site/pics/feudal.jpg

  26. Historic Dates & Context: The Battle of Hastings, 1066 • Reality: “Just another struggle for succession”  • Interpretation: Culturally, politically, linguistically: • Jack Straw (2003) “Britain was founded in 1066 by the French”  • Sir Walter Scott: Ivanhoe (1819): “Norman yoke” destroying Saxon democratic/egalitarian culture – “they did this to us”  • Edward Freeman (1872):“the Norman was a Dane who, in his sojourn in Gaul, had put on a slight French varnish, and who came into England to be washed clean again.” • Selective reading of history • Dates as symbols “actual” historical significance. • E.g. “1683” in the debates about Turkey’s EU membership

  27. Decline of the Feudal System Holy Roman Empire of the German Nation (962-1806) • feudal pyramid declines into a discordant group of independent fiefs • noble families, religious institutions, burghers of the developing towns, etc. • 225 political entities Source: http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/d/d6/Holy_Roman_Empire_1648_fr.svg/756px-Holy_Roman_Empire_1648_fr.svg.png

  28. 3. Anarchic System of States: Origins 30 Years War(s) (1618-48): • Reasons: dynastic, strategic, religious conflicts within and between European powers • Actors: Emperor of the Holy Roman Empire, House Habsburg, Free imperial cities, Papacy, local lords, rulers of Bavaria, Spain, Papacy, Poland, Saxony, Dutch Republic, France, Sweden, etc. etc. etc. etc. etc. • Results: widespread devastation of “Germany,” famine, disease, bankruptcy…and a New Political Order https://qed.princeton.edu/getfile.php?f=The_Thirty_Years_War_1618-48.jpg

  29. Westphalian Sovereignty Peace of Westphalia (1648) • Basis of new European/world order • States = primary institutionalized actors in the system • Interests/goals transcend those of any individual • Statesovereignty • territoriality • exclusion of external actors from domestic affairs • Anarchy • Absence of a higher government/common sovereign • Self-help system (frequent but limited wars)  Key concept in the study of international politics UGA a Paris - Meyer

  30. World(!) War 1 1914: The Great War! • 15 million dead • E.g. Battle of the Somme: 1.3 mn dead & wounded  Prussian – Austrian war (1866): 36,000 total • Accelerating power shift away from Europe • Rise of Communism (Russian Revolution) • What had happened?? • Where did Westphalia go??

  31. The System Level 1. Rise of Nationalism Westphalian System: • Wars: dynastic, short, sharp, geographically limited  “rewrite the rules of the game”  “revolutionary wars” • Comparatively stable international system Balance of power between “divine” monarchs: • “L'État, c'estmoi!” (State Moralism) French Revolution (1789-1799)!! • Overthrowing of domestic institutions of a World Power ( American “Revolution” = independence from a distant land) • Power should emanate from the people!  Nationalism • Enormous Challenge to rules of the game and balance of power!

  32. The System Level Bye, bye stability… moderate process & stable system (monarchies) revolutionary pr. & unstable system (of differently governed states) Exogenous Change • Unexplainable through structural theory (e.g. Neo-Realism) • Constructivist “supplement” needed • Rise of popular sovereignty & nationalism • Radical Changes: Fight for “fatherland”/ “total war” • “draft” for the cause • Huge “national” armies • … UGA à Paris - Meyer

  33. “the crash will come twenty years after my departure if things go on like this” "One day the great European War will come out of some damned foolish thing in the Balkans” - Bismarck, 1897 The System Level 2. Rise of Germany • Unification of Germany, Versailles 1871 • 1881-1914: “Scramble for Africa” • 1890: “Belated nation”surpassing British Empire • Wilhelm II forces Bismarck to resign (“Dropping the Pilot“) • 1901: “Germany’s place in the Sun” • “In spite of the fact that we have no such fleet as we should have, we have conquered for ourselves a place in the sun. It will now be my task to see to it that this place in the sun shall remain our undisputed possession,…” - Kaiser Wilhelm II , 1901 • 1911: “Tirpitz-plan” • Build a navy “strong enough to make UK avoid battle” • 1913: UK 10% of World GDP vs.Germany 15% • … UGA à Paris - Meyer http://images.zeno.org/Kunstwerke/I/big/079s037a.jpg http://www.dhm.de/lemo/objekte/pict/gr102138/index.jpg

  34. Bipolarization of the System Loss of diplomatic flexibility (Nationalism + incredibly incapable leaders) Decline of “Concert of Europe” ( Triple Alliance vs. Tripple Entente)) Rigid Bipolarity  security dilemma is tightened UGA à Paris - Meyer http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/d/d7/Triple_Alliance.png,,, http://wpcontent.answers.com/wikipedia/commons/thumb/6/6b/Guerre_14-18-Humour-L%27ingordo,_trop_dur-1915.JPG/175px-Guerre_14-18-Humour-L%27ingordo,_trop_dur-1915.JPG

  35. Ergo… System State Individual Rise of Germany Collapse of Austria-Hungary Rising Nationalism Rising popular participation • Leader Personalities Domestic class conflict Aggressive German policy Bipolarity of Alliances Loss of moderation Escalating Crisis UGA à Paris - Meyer

  36. In search of a new world order… Disillusion… • “Civilization” • “Balance of Power” Woodrow Wilson: ( Otto von Bismarck) • Classic 19th century liberal • “the balance of power is the great game now forever discredited” • morality “good” and “bad” • Nationalism (self-determination), Ideologies, etc… • Democracy and Peace • “outlaw war” • The World Needs A New System! UGA à Paris - Meyer

  37. In search of a new world order… Westphalia  “Self-Policing” ( “Super-Leviathan”) • International laws & institutions (“intl. democracy”) • 14 Pts (14): “ Association of nations […] for the purpose of affording mutual guarantees of political independence and territorial integrity to great and small states alike.”  Collective Security • Collective Responsibility “Paper Treaties” • Permanent organizations to enforce rules of the game • Moral force and military force on “the side of the Good”  How? • Outlawing of offensive war (normative) • deter aggression (coalition of all non-aggressive states) • democratic peace • Collective punishment (sanctions & “just war”)

  38. Covenant of the League of Nations Content Ambiguity #16 Article #10 #11 #12 How? (Veto Power) “respect and preserve as against external aggression the territorial integrity and existing political independence of all Members…” Any war or threat of war [is] declared a matter of concern to the whole League, and the League shall take any action… Who? (Decision Maker) WHO IS THE SOVEREIGN? [The Members] agree in no case to resort to war until three months after the award by the arbitrators or the judicial decision, … Enforcement? • [...] severance of all trade or financial relations, the prohibition of all intercourse between their nationals… Coordination? UGA à Paris - Meyer

  39. The US and the League of Nations American Liberal Plan to Reorder World Politics • US senate refuses to ratify treaty of Versailles • “Collective” security without biggest actor in the system Reasons: • Isolationism vs. Interventionism • American “Colonies” (e.g. Philippines: 1898–1946) George Washington’s Farewell Address (1796): “The great rule of conduct for us in regard to foreign nations is in extending our commercial relations, to have with them as little political connection as possible. […] Europe has a set of primary interests which to us have none; or a very remote relation. Hence she must be engaged in frequent controversies, the causes of which are essentially foreign to our concerns. Hence, therefore, it must be unwise in us to implicate ourselves by artificial ties in the ordinary vicissitudes of her politics, or the ordinary combinations and collisions of her friendships or enmities.” UGA à Paris - Meyer

  40. League of Nations vs. “National Interest” France: • Deep seated fear  singles out aggressor in advance • “Traditional” Coalition building: Poland, “Little Entente” Yugoslavia, Czechoslovakia, Romania Germany • “Rape of Versailles” • “stab-in-the-back legend” • Severely weakened but not broken • “war guilt clause” – Germany as the sole aggressor • $33,000,000,000  collapsed economy • Reduction of Army to 100,000 men - no Air force • Loss of 25,000 square miles – home to 7 million people • Hyperinflation – weakening of the middle class UGA à Paris - Meyer http://www.geschichteinchronologie.ch/eu/D-bis-1933/Sontheimer_kraefte-gg-weim-rep-d/karte-1919-gebietsverluste-Deutschland.gif http://farm4.static.flickr.com/3130/2908764415_8f46ded784.jpg

  41. Ergo… System State Individual Unfinished WWI Inadequate econ. co-ordination Class Conflict Great Depression Ideological Politics (GER & JP) • Hitler’s Rise to Power Appeasement • Hitler’s schemes Escalation! Versailles Treaty US and SU Isolation Unstable Balance UGA à Paris - Meyer

  42. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xCnEbQjaUvY&playnext=1&list=PL939C23D40C983B6Dhttp://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xCnEbQjaUvY&playnext=1&list=PL939C23D40C983B6D

  43. “Statistics” • “State” • Population (≈1939) • Military • Deaths • Civilian • Deaths • Jewish D. • Holocaust • ≈Total Deaths • ≈ % of pop. USSR 169,000,000 8,800,000 -10,700,000 12,300,000 14,200,000 1,000,000 • 24,000,000 • 14% China 517,600,000 3,000,000 - 4,000,000 7,000,000 – 16,000,000 x • 10-20,000,000 • 1.93-3.86% 3rd Reich 84,000,000 5,500,000 • 959,700 -3,228,700 • 225,000 • 6,8 – 9,000,000 • 8 -10.7% Poland • 34,849,000 • 240,000 • 2,380,000 - 2,580,000 • 3,000,000 • 5,6 - 5,800,000 • 16.1 - 16.7% Japan • 71,380,000 2,120,000 580,000 x 2,700,000 3.78% France 41,700,000 217,600 267,000 83,000 567,600 1.35% UK • 47,760,000 • 382,700 • 67,100 x • 449,800 • 0.94% USA • 131,028,000 • 416,800 • 1,700 x • 418,500 • 0.32% World • 1,967,000,000 • 23,000,000 -25,000,000 • 32,000,000 - 50,000,000 • 5,700,000 • 62-79,000,000 • 3.17-4%

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