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Transition Initiatives From Oil Dependency to Local Resilience.

Transition Initiatives From Oil Dependency to Local Resilience. June 16 th 2008. Rob Hopkins. Transition Town Totnes * TransitionCulture.org * Transition Network . The Petroleum Interval . Peak Oil. From Energy Watch Group (2007) Crude Oil: the supply outlook. . Oil Producers (98).

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Transition Initiatives From Oil Dependency to Local Resilience.

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  1. Transition InitiativesFrom Oil Dependency to Local Resilience. June 16th 2008. Rob Hopkins. Transition Town Totnes * TransitionCulture.org * Transition Network

  2. The Petroleum Interval

  3. Peak Oil.

  4. From Energy Watch Group (2007) Crude Oil: the supply outlook.

  5. Oil Producers (98) www.lastoilshock.com

  6. Post Peak Oil Producers (64) www.lastoilshock.com

  7. Discovery peaked 40 years ago Past discovery by ExxonMobil Past after Exxon-Mobil 3yr moving average

  8. Production peaks follow discovery. (You have to find it before you can produce it). Source: Association for the Study of Peak Oil

  9. President Bush in Saudi Terry Moran: "What can you say to the king here to get those high oil prices down?" George Bush Well, I will say to him that if it is possible, your majesty, consider what high prices is doing to one of your largest customers . . ." Moran then asks whether Americans might expect a tougher approach, one in which we essentially say, "you owe us" for all we have done for you. Bush: "If they don't have a lot of additional oil to put on the market, it is hard to ask somebody to do something they may not be able to do."

  10. World Unconventional Production 1936 - 2006

  11. Filling the Gap: the Unconventional Oils.

  12. New Brazilian ‘Superfield’ Will require; • equipment that can withstand 18,000 pounds per square inch of pressure, enough to crush a pickup truck • pipes that can carry oil at temperatures above 500 degrees Fahrenheit (260 Celsius) • drill bits that can penetrate layers of salt more than one mile thick and cost $50,000 each `This is a very, very technically challenging environment where no one's ever done this, these discoveries are in very deep water, and once you get to the seabed they are very deep under the floor, with a layer of salt that is definitely a difficult barrier’

  13. The Growth in Biofuels

  14. The UK: The Widening Gap Source: DTI

  15. Gas? UK Continental Shelf Annual Forecast & Import Requirement Source – National Grid

  16. “The UK is a secondary priority. Like it or not, that is a fact”. Thor Otto Lohne, executive vice-president, Gassco.

  17. ...Climate Change; Far Faster than Expected. Spratt, D. (2007) The Big Melt: Lessons from the Arctic Summer of 2007. Carbon Equity.

  18. Energy Return on Energy Invested (EROEI)

  19. Carbon Emissions

  20. 4 Energy Scenarios Proactive ResponseGovernment, Society, Technology & Markets 3 1 SlowDepletionand/or later peaking RapidDepletionand/or early peaking 4 2 Reactive ResponseMarkets, Technology, Society & Government

  21. 4 Energy Scenarios Proactive ResponseGovernment, Society, Technology & Markets “Lean Economy” * “Techno-Markets” aka “Powerdown” aka “Sustainable Development” RapidDepletionand/or early peaking SlowDepletionand/or later peaking “Collapse” “Burnout” aka “Mad Max”aka “Easter Island”aka “90s Cuba/Russia” aka “Climate Chaos”aka “Business as Usual” Reactive ResponseMarkets, Technology, Society & Government * per David Fleming

  22. Peak Oil & Climate Change PLANNED RELOCALISATION • local resilience • carbon reduction • consume closer to home • produce closer to home • play closer to home • decentralised energy infrastructure • the Great Reskilling • localised food • energy descent plans • local medicinal capacity • local currencies CLIMATE CHANGE (a la Stern et al.) • climate engineering • carbon capture and storage • tree-based carbon offsets • international emissions trading • climate adaptation • improved transportation logistics • nuclear power PEAK OIL (a la Hirsch et al.) • coal to liquids • gas to liquids • relaxed drilling regulations • massively scaled biofuels • tar sands and non-conventional oils • resource nationalism and stockpiling

  23. Principle #1. Resilience.Totnes in the 1930’s… © Totnes Image Bank

  24. George Heath.A Powerdown Pioneer. © Totnes Image Bank

  25. Food - Urban Gardens in Cuba Downtown Havana

  26. Relocalisation “…localisation stands, at best, at the limits of practical possibility, but it has the decisive argument in its favour that there will be no alternative” David Fleming

  27. Principle #2. Visioning

  28. #3. Inclusion #4. Awareness Raising #5. Psychological Insights #6. Credible and Appropriate Solutions.

  29. UK: Totnes , Penwith, Ivybridge, Falmouth , Moretonhampstead, Lewes, Stroud , Bristol, Brixton, Forest Row, Mayfield, Glastonbury, Lostwithiel, Forest of Dean, Nottingham, Wrington , Brighton & Hove , Portobello, Scotland , Market Harborough, West Kirby , Llandeilo , Bro Dyfi , Whitstable, Marsden/Slaithwaite , Frome, Brampton, Isle of Wight , Dunbar, Scotland, Ireland : Kinsale Australia: Sunshine Coast New Zealand :Waiheke Island, Orewa

  30. The 12 Steps of Transition. Step 1: Form a Steering Group and Design Its Demise from the Outset.

  31. Step Two: Awareness Raising…

  32. Step 3:Lay the Foundations. • Collaborate where possible • Co-operation, not competition.

  33. Working with BusinessOil Vulnerability Analysis. Totnes first town in the UK to train OVA team and conduct pilot analyses. Working with Liverpool University Oil Depletion Impact Group. Two pilot studies reported back September 2007, more to follow. Endorsed by Totnes Chamber of Commerce

  34. Working with Local Landowners. Estates in Transition conference. June 11th 2007.

  35. Step 4.The Official Unleashing “Maybe they will tell stories about what happened in Totnes. Maybe this evening will be something that is the beginning of one of those stories”. Dr Chris Johnstone – TTT Unleashing Sept ’06.

  36. Step 5:Form Working Groups. Up and Running Arts / Food / Energy / Economics / Liaison with Local Government / Heart and Soul – the psychology of change / Medicine and Health / Housing / Education / Transport

  37. Step 6:Use Open Space Technology.

  38. Step 7:Develop Visible Manifestations of the Project. “Totnes, the Nut Tree Capital of Britain”. Tree Planting, January 2007.

  39. The Totnes Local Food Directory.

  40. The Totnes Pound

  41. Transition Tales

  42. Step 8:Facilitate the Great Reskilling Skilling Up for Powerdown. Peak Oil / Climate Change, Permaculture Principles, Food, Energy, Building and Housing, Woodlands, Water, Waste, Economics, The Psychology of Change, Energy Descent Planning…

  43. Using You Tube to Communicate Transition Town ideas.

  44. Great Reskilling courses. Wild Foods, natural building, seed saving, hand made paints, stove building, forest gardening, food growing, bread making...

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