TRANSITION From Fossil Fuel Dependence to Local Resilience, One Community at a Time

1. TRANSITIONFrom Fossil Fuel Dependence to Local Resilience, One Community at a Time

2. PART ONE The Context for Transition

3. PEAK OIL THE LONG EMERGENCY GLOBALWARMING ECONOMIC INSTABILITY

7. Today 1970

8. Oil producers (98) Post peak oil producers (64) www.lastoilshock.com

9. Discovery, Production, Demand

10. The End of Growth

11. World Oil Production

13. “The world has never faced a problem like this. Without massive mitigation…the problem will be pervasive and will not be temporary. Previous energy transitions were gradual and evolutionary. Oil peaking will be abrupt and revolutionary.” • The Hirsch ReportU.S. Department of EnergyFebruary 2005

14. “It is quite likely that the time interval before the global peak occurs will be briefer than the period required for societies to adapt themselves painlessly to a different energy regime.” —Richard HeinbergPeak Everything:Waking Up to a Century of Declines

15. “Predictions are always difficult, especially about the future.” —Neils Bohr, Quantum Physicist

16. Oil Export Crisis • After peaking of global oil production, exports cease in only nine years, far faster than overall oil production. • Exports decline at an accelerating rate, starting at about -13% and ending at about -48%, averaging about -29% per year over the 8 years of decline. • Only about 10% of the oil produced after the peak is ever exported!

17. Cubic Mile of Oil/Year

21. “We have at most ten years—not ten years to decide upon action, but ten years to alter fundamentally the trajectory of global greenhouse gas emissions.” —James HansenDirectorGoddard Institute for Space Studies, NASA

24. “The second half of the Age of Oil now dawns and will be marked by the decline of oil and all that depends on it, including financial capital. It heralds the collapse of the present financial system, and the related political structures… I am speaking of a second Great Depression.” Colin Campbell, Ph.D.ASPO Conference 2003

25. “The world oil production peak represents an unprecedented economic crisis that will wreak havoc on national economies, topple governments, alter national boundaries, provoke military strife, and challenge the continuation of civilized life.” James Howard KunstlerThe Long Emergency

26. “The apparent fact that the world has reached the end of economic growth as we have known it is momentous information. It needs to get to as many people as possible, and as soon as possible, if we collectively are going to be able to plan for contraction and manage the transition away from fossil fuels without succumbing to rapid, chaotic civilizational collapse…” —Richard HeinbergPost Carbon Institute

28. Unintended consequences…

29. PEAK OIL THE LONG EMERGENCY GLOBALWARMING ECONOMIC INSTABILITY

31. “We have trouble visualizing decline as positive, but this simply reflects the dominance of our prior culture of growth… The real issue of our age is how we make a graceful and ethical descent.” David Holmgren Permaculture: Principles and PathwaysBeyond Sustainability

32. Energy Descent “I use the term ‘descent’ as the least loaded word that honestly conveys the inevitable, radical reduction of material consumption and/or human numbers that will characterize the declining decades and centuries of fossil fuel abundance and availability.” —David HolmgrenPermaculture: Principles and PathwaysBeyond Sustainability

33. “It’s like growing old. You can’t solve that. However, you can choose to respond respectfully, wisely and imaginatively to it, so that even ageing can become a source of unexpected riches.” Richard Heinberg

34. Childhood’s End “Let us give thanks for this extraordinary period of human history we lived through. Let us recognize that we are moving into a new phase of history. Let’s be brave and wise about it, and prepare to move on.” James Howard KunstlerThe Long Emergency

36. “The Long Emergency is an opportunity to pause, to think through our present course, and to adjust to a saner path for the future. We had best face facts: we really have no choice. The Long Emergency is a horrible predicament. It is also a wonderful opportunity to do a lot better. Let’s not squander this moment.” —Albert Bates (paraphrased)The Post Petroleum Survival Guide and Cookbook

37. “Inherent within the challenges of peak oil and climate change is an extraordinary opportunity to reinvent, rethink and rebuild the world around us.” —Rob HopkinsThe Transition Handbook

38. “If you look at the science about what is happening on earth and aren’t pessimistic, you don’t understand the data. But if you meet the people who are working to restore this earth and the lives of the poor, and you aren’t optimistic, you haven’t got a pulse.” —Paul Hawken

39. Future Energy Scenarios

40. The Need: Energy Transition • The challenge of global climate change makes a shift away from fossil fuels necessary for planetary survival. • The impending peak in oil and gas production means that the transition is inevitable. • Our only choice is whether to proactively undertake the transition now—or later. • Transition Initiatives make the transition feasible, viable and attractive.

41. “I believe that a lower-energy, more localized future, in which we move from being consumers to being producer/consumers, where food, energy and other essentials are locally produced, local economies are strengthened and we have learned to live more within our means is a step towards something extraordinary, not a step away from something inherently irreplaceable.” —Rob HopkinsThe Transition Handbook

42. Resilient communities—self-reliant for the greatest possible number of their needs—will be infinitely better prepared than those who are dependent on globalized systems for food, energy, transportation, health, and housing.

43. Relocalization • Local production of food, energy and goods • Local development of currency, government and culture • Reducing consumption while improving environmental and social conditions • Developing exemplary communities that can be working models for other communities when the effects of energy decline become more intense

44. “The most radical thing you can do is stay home.” —Gary Snyder

45. Resilience Indicators • Proportion of the community employed locally • Percentage of essential goods manufactured within a given radius • Percentage of local building materials used in new housing developments • Number of 16-year-olds able to grow 10 different varieties of vegetables to a given degree of basic competency • Percentage of medicines prescribed locally that have been produced within a given radius • Percentage of food consumed locally that was produced within a given radius • Ratio of car parking space to productive land use • Degree of engagement in practical relocalization work by local community • Amount of traffic on local roads • Number of businesses owned by local people • Percentage of local trade carried out in local currency

46. PART TWOThe Story of the Transition Movement