Predicting Labor Demand and Supply for a Hotel Chain

1. Examples of Predicting Labor Demand for a Hotel Chain with 25 Hotels A Number of Employees B Ratio of Employees/ Hotels (Calculated as Column A ÷25) C Projected 2003 Labor Demand for 32 Hotels (Calculated as Column B x 32) Key Positions General Manager Resident Manager Food/Beverage Dir. Controller Asst. Controller Chief Engineer Director of Sales Sales Manager Convention Mgr. Catering Director Banquet Manager Personnel Director Restaurant Mgr. Executive Chef Sous Chef Exec. Housekeeper Total 25 9 23 25 14 24 25 45 14 19 19 15 49 24 24 25 379 1.00 .36 .92 1.00 .56 .96 1.00 1.80 .56 .76 .76 .60 1.96 .96 .96 1.00 32 12 29 32 18 31 32 58 18 24 24 19 63 31 31 32 486

2. Examples of Predicting Labor Supply and Required New Hires for a Hotel Chain Supply Analysis Supply-Demand Comp. A % Quit B # of Present Emp. C Proj. Turnover by 2003 D Emp. Left by 2003 E Proj. Labor Demand in 2003 F Proj. New Hires in 2003 Key Positions General Manager Resident Manager Food/Beverage Dir. Controller Asst. Controller Chief Engineer Director of Sales Sales Manager Convention Mgr. Catering Director Banquet Manager Personnel Director Restaurant Mgr. Executive Chef Sous Chef Exec. Housekeeper Total 38 77 47 85 66 81 34 68 90 74 60 43 89 70 92 63 25 9 23 25 14 24 25 45 14 19 19 15 49 24 24 25 379 10 7 11 21 9 16 9 30 13 14 12 6 44 17 22 16 257 15 2 12 4 5 8 16 15 1 5 7 9 5 7 2 9 122 32 12 29 32 18 31 32 58 18 24 24 19 63 31 31 32 486 17 10 17 28 13 23 16 43 17 19 17 10 58 24 29 23 364

3. Recruitment Recruitment is the process of generating a pool of qualified candidates for a particular job. The firm must announce the job’s availability to the market and attract qualified candidates to apply. The firm may seek applicants from inside the organization, outside the organization, or both.

4. Recruitment Sources • Internal Sources • Faster, cheaper, more certainty • External Sources • New ideas and approaches • Direct applicants and referrals • Self-selection, low cost • Newspaper advertising • Public employment agencies • Blue-collar jobs • Private employment agencies • White-collar jobs • Colleges and Universities • Online recruiting • Internet has transformed how U.S. Ers find and hire Ees – Internet produced about half of all new hires in 2005 (includes Er’s web site, general job boards, etc.) (Source: HRNews Online, 2/21/06)

5. Attributes Impacting Recruiter Evaluations of MBA Programs Attribute% Very Important Communication and interpersonal skills 89% Ability to work well within a team 87 Personal ethics and integrity 86 Analytical and problem-solving skills 84 Work ethic 83 Fit with the corporate culture 75 Success w/ past hires 74 Leadership potential 73 • Source: Wall Street Journal, 9/20/06

6. Attributes Impacting Recruiter Evaluations of MBA Programs • “We need a combination of strong analytical and interpersonal skills, plus an ability to cope with ambiguity and remain composed in uncomfortable, stressful situations. A key question for us is can the candidate be comfortable working and communicating with a range of people at the company, from top executives down to assembly-line workers?” • Recruiter from Electronic Data Systems • “Budding MBAs tend to be overly confident. [At USC] our biggest single problem is convincing them they don’t have the skills needed to communicate well in a corporate environment.” • Source: Wall Street Journal, 9/17/03

7. Selection Selection is the process of making a “hire” or “no hire” decision regarding each applicant for a job. The process typically involves determining the characteristics required for effective job performance and then measuring applicants on those characteristics. The characteristics required for effective job performance are typically based on a job analysis.

8. Selection Process • Toyota staffing process for new Tundra truck assembly plant near San Antonio • Plant initially employs ~1,800 production Ees • (Princeton plant staffed up to 4,300) • Over 100,000 applications expected • Not unusual for high paying world class manufacturing Co to have 50+ applicants for every position • Harley-Davidson’s new Kansas City plant hired 200 from 9,000 apps • As of January 2002, TMMI had received 62,000 applications and hired 2,600 • Ratio may be even greater for some staff positions • Visteon: Hired 7 percent of applicants, 2/3 failed test adding fractions

9. “Inside the Head of an Applicant” • 89 of Fortune 100 use Myers-Briggs Personality Type Indicator in hiring and promoting • Experts concede test seems to capture valid aspects of personality, but say it’s too ‘blunt’ • “Most people are blends”

10. “Inside the Head of an Applicant” • Minnesota Multiphasic Personality Inventory (MMPI) widely used for substance abuse, other symptoms of social maladjustment • Psychologists say test has value, but tends to flag otherwise normal test takers as pathological (false positives) • 60% of U.S. police depts use it, as do industries ranging from banking to retail • Note Target case (combination of MMPI and California Personality Inventory) • In June 2005, 7th Circuit Court of Appeals ruled in class-action suit that Rent-A-Center violated ADA by requiring applicants to take MMPI – “likely had the effect of excluding employees with (mental) disorders from promotions” • In 1996, test measuring trustworthiness withstood claim against Borg-Warner Protective Services, as judge ruled test was not medical examination under ADA

11. “Inside the Head of an Applicant” • More accurate generation of personality tests has now hit market, derived from empirical studies about how types of people behave in certain situations • Unlike MMPI, designed to measure normal personalities • Scientists digging even deeper, focusing on genetic and neural predictors of personality • Brain scans have shown people differ profoundly in their brain ‘wiring’ • EEOC guidelines indicate er can use construct validity studies as evidence that specific test measures personality traits identified as important to performance of specific job • Hiring consultants also recommend concurrent validation • Source: Newsweek, 2/21/05; Workforce Management, 9/05

12. “Why I cut 48 resumes from a stack of 62” • OD consultant did first pass for client • Took two hours (< 2 minutes per resume) • 14 made cut (< 25%) • 8 had no chance • Other 40 could have made cut, but applicants sabotaged their chances

13. “Why I cut 48 resumes from a stack of 62” • Why the might be’s became no’s • Objective didn’t fit position • Be sure objective aligns with available job • May be better to leave off resume, address in cover letter • Overly favorable representation of themselves • “good communication skills” good, “extraordinarily skilled communicator” may be overboard • Resume lacked sufficient information as to kind of work done previously • Job titles wo/responsibilities problematic • Typographical errors • (McGuire’s “certified pubic accountant” candidate) • Source: Roanoke Times & World News, 7/18/02

14. The Nine Don’ts of Interviewing • Don’t ask applicants if they have children, plan to have children, or what child-care arrangements they have made. • Don’t ask an applicant’s age. • Don’t ask whether or not the candidate has a physical or mental disability that would interfere with doing the job. • Don’t ask for such identifying characteristics as height or weight on an application. • Don’t ask a female candidate for her maiden name. • Don’t ask applicants about their citizenship. • Don’t ask applicants about their arrest records. • Don’t ask if a candidate smokes. • Don’t ask a job candidate if he or she has AIDS or is HIV-positive.

15. Some Issues with The Nine Don’ts • Misleading to some extent and in some instances wrong • For example, even criminal convictions can create adverse impact (see subsequent slide) • Can lawfully refuse to employ smokers in some states (not IL, IN, KY) • Partridge presentation in ASBE 401 will elucidate

16. Employment Inquiries and Privacy • Text statement that “privacy and discrimination laws prohibit inquiries into an applicant’s personal, non-work-related activities” (p. 174) is over-broad… • While EEOC guidelines encourage inquiries to be job-related… • No Constitutional right to privacy, except as created by US SCt re: some governmental action (CA contrary) • E.g., 1965 case held that CT law prohibiting sale of contraceptives was unconstitutional invasion of privacy (of married persons); 2003 case held that TX law prohibiting sex between persons of same sex was unconstitutional invasion of privacy • Privacy Act regulates some governmental action • Discrimination laws prohibit discrimination on basis of specified characteristics • There is the common law of torts (e.g., defamation) • Bottom line: questions that are invasive are not necessarily unlawful (but may still result in litigation)

17. “For Some, Online Persona Undermines Resume” • When small Chicago consulting Co was looking to hire summer intern, Co president went online to check on promising candidate who had just graduated from U of Illinois • At Facebook, found web page that described candidate’s interests as “smokin’ blunts,” shooting people, and obsessive sex, all described in vivid slang • Candidate was done • “What kind of judgment does this person have?” • Orgs looking for ‘red flags’ • Source: New York Times, 6/11/06 • USI mngt major, Jr., 3.1 GPA • Facebook picture shows student holding a beer with two beer cans balanced on her head • Interests: “going to bars, drinking beer, drinking whiskey, drinking any alcohol, partying with my friends, going to the haute, beer pong, beer bonging, edward 40 hands, drinking games with cards or any we make up randomly, so pretty much anything that involves drinking”

18. “For Some, Online Persona Undermines Resume” • According to survey of 3,100 Ers by CareerBuilder.com, 22% of hiring Ers say they use Web sites such as Facebook and MySpace to research job candidates • Double the percentage in 2006 • Of the respondents who used a social networking site to check candidates, 34% said they found information that caused them to remove candidate from consideration • Candidate posted information about drinking or using drugs, provocative or inappropriate pictures or information, poor communication skills, bad-mouthed former Er or co-worker, used discriminatory remarks, screen name was unprofessional, was linked to criminal behavior, revealed confidential information about previous Ers • 24% of hiring managers said they found content that gave candidate an edge • Great communication skills, person was good fit for Co’s culture, personal site illustrated professional image, showed wide range of interests, personal profile was creative • Source: WorldatWork, 9/12/08

19. “As Background Checks Proliferate, Ex-Cons Face a Lock on Jobs” • More businesses using criminal-background checks to guard against negligent-hiring lawsuits, theft of company assets, even terrorism • About 80% of big Ers in U.S. now do such checks (up from 56% in 1996) • Some 630,000 people get out of state and federal prisons each year w/ criminal records • Almost 30% of adult Americans had state criminal arrest record in 2003 • Ethical and legal implications • Minorities in particular could experience adverse impact • Black males incarcerated at five times rate of white males, Hispanics two times • Blacks w/ criminal records pay bigger penalty in job market (see research cited in Understanding Equal Opportunity and the Legal Environment) • Source: Wall Street Journal, 8/26/04; MSNBC.com, 8/14/05

20. Reference Checking • 36 states (including IN) have laws that grant ers some form of civil immunity when they disclose information about current or past ee in response to request for reference • But, suggested that many state laws contain loopholes that plaintiff lawyers can attack when pursuing defamation lawsuit • Although truth is a defense, ers must still be careful about what information is provided and how • There is both a duty to be accurate and a duty not to misrepresent information • Source: HR News, 6/24/05