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‘AIDS: A Darwinian Event?’

‘AIDS: A Darwinian Event?’. by Alan Whiteside 1 & Alex de Waal 2 The Centre for AIDS Research University of Southampton 1. Director HEARD University of KwaZulu-Natal 2. Research Fellow, Global Equity Initiative, Harvard University. Outline of Presentation.

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‘AIDS: A Darwinian Event?’

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  1. ‘AIDS: A Darwinian Event?’ by Alan Whiteside1 & Alex de Waal2 The Centre for AIDS Research University of Southampton 1. Director HEARD University of KwaZulu-Natal 2. Research Fellow, Global Equity Initiative, Harvard University

  2. Outline of Presentation • What do I mean - Darwinian - Event • Evidence • Looking back

  3. What do I mean? Darwinian – that which results in change in our genetic, social, economic or psychological makeup

  4. What do I mean? Event – something we can measure as we look back or, in the case of AIDS, look forward

  5. Examples • The Black Death (see Barbara Tuchman ‘A Distant Mirror’) • The extermination of colonial times – Tasmania • Slavery? • SMS texting with mobile phones?

  6. What is AIDS? HIV / AIDS an historical event – so what is our historical perspective A candidate as a Darwinian Event?

  7. Outline of Presentation • What do I mean - Darwinian - Event • Evidence • Looking back

  8. The Scale of the Epidemic • HIV prevalence of 40% • Mortality

  9. A model of future AIDS and non-AIDS deaths

  10. Numbers infected, sick & dead ASSA2000

  11. Changing life expectancy in African countries with high and low HIV prevalence: 1950-2005 Source:UNAIDS, 2002. Report on the global HIV/AIDS epidemic

  12. Changes in Population Structure due to AIDS – 2000-2025 South Africa Botswana 32

  13. AIDS orphans in South Africa 33

  14. Forecast GDP Growth 2002- 15

  15. 30

  16. What goes around comes around

  17. Outline of Presentation • What do I mean - Darwinian - Event • Evidence • Looking back

  18. Demography • Size (decrease, stabilise, grow more slowly) • Structure male:female, dependency ratios • orphans

  19. Social/psychological Selection by • Wealth • Skills • Ability or characteristics eg artists or entrepreneurs

  20. Wealth and HIV Botswana South Africa 3000 $ Namibia 2000 $ Swaziland 1000 $ Cote d’Ivoire Zimbabwe Uganda Zambia Per capita 1999 10 10 20 30 Adult HIV prevalence end 1999

  21. Dying* Surviving** Short-term thinkers Settled, long-term employed Newly prosperous orphans Sex workers Tertiary education High income Uncircumcised Miners/hazardous occupations Cohesive, candid societies Long-term thinkers Young women AIDS epidemic AIDS epidemic Teachers++ Isolated areas Soldiers Migrants, temp, contract workers Circumcised Gov’t workers++ Unemployed Chaste & faithful Grandparents Drivers & mobile workers Political leaders? Non-migrant families Corridors & Crossroads Maputo Beira Durban Trans-Kalahari? Some regions: W. Cape N. Cape Sn. Namibia Northern Prov. E. Cape Some regions: KZN, Gauteng, Mpu’ga Caprivi – E&W Botswana Swaziland, Lesotho **Below average deaths from AIDS (the foundation of the future) *Above average deaths from AIDS (++ high impact, maybe higher numbers) Intro. Some Populations Harder Hit than Others

  22. Memetic evolution Memes are replicable information in the brain. • Circumcision • Risk taking • Funeral ceremonies • Nepotism and altruism

  23. Yes Populations decline Some groups v.adversely affected Memetic impact Economic & social effects No Pop. Decline limited Epidemic isolated in certain areas & groups The ‘dyers’ don’t matter The scale too short Is AIDS a Darwinian event?

  24. Ozymandias I met a traveler from an antique landWho said: Two vast and trunkless legs of stoneStand in the desert. Near them, on the sand,Half sunk, a shattered visage lies, whose frown,And wrinkled lip, and sneer of cold command,Tell that its sculptor well those passions read,Which yet survive, stamped on these lifeless things,The hand that mocked them, and the heart that fed,And on the pedestal these words appear:"My name is Ozymandias, King of Kings:Look upon my works, ye Mighty, and despair!"Nothing beside remains. Round the decayOf that colossal wreck, boundless and bareThe lone and level sands stretch far away. Percy Bysshe Shelley1792-1822

  25. No Man is an Island No man is an island, entire of itself every man is a piece of the continent, a part of the main if a clod be washed away by the sea, Europe is the less, as well as if a promontory were, as well as if a manor of thy friends or of thine own were any man's death diminishes me, because I am involved in mankind and therefore never send to know for whom the bell tolls it tolls for thee. -- John Donne

  26. HIV/AIDS is an historical event! A ‘history’ is being written. The responsibilityof historians provide: • ideas, • paradigms & • methodologies for understanding and responding

  27. And finally There is an awful predictability about HIV/AIDS and what it has the potential to do. Historians have the unique experience of seeing an event of unparalleled significance unfold before their eyes. This history can be written in advance.

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