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Warm-Up Chapter 4-3 Establishing Causation

Warm-Up Chapter 4-3 Establishing Causation. 1. Define Simpson's paradox from your reading . 2. Using the above table, calculate the marginal distributions of college major and gender in both counts and percents.

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Warm-Up Chapter 4-3 Establishing Causation

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  1. Warm-Up Chapter 4-3Establishing Causation • 1. Define Simpson's paradox from your reading. • 2. Using the above table, calculate the marginal distributions of college major and gender in both counts and percents. • 3. Find the conditional distribution of administration in percents and provide a brief explanation of what it tells you.

  2. Make sure you read and understood example 4.15 from page 299 in your reading! (If you did not read it, write it down now and plan on going through it on your own) Simpson's Paradox

  3. When we study the relationship between two variables, we often hope to show that change in the explanatory variable cause changes in the response variable. But a strong association between two variables is not enough to draw conclusions about cause and effect. Establishing Causation

  4. Explaining Association Do more firefighters at the scene of a fire cause greater property damage? Does more storks in Oldenburg, Germany cause an increase in population?

  5. Explaining AssociationCausation

  6. Explaining AssociationCommon Response

  7. Explaining AssociationConfounding

  8. Look at the list of relationships on page 306. Classify each as causation, common response, or confounding. Interesting Relationships How about the fireman and stork examples cited earlier?

  9. Even when direct causation is present, it is rarely a complete explanation of an association Explaining AssociationCausation Mother, daughter BMI Even well-established causal relations may not generalize to other settings Lab rats

  10. Remember that the best way to ensure correctly established causation is to conduct a carefully designed experiment in which the effects of possible lurking variables are controlled. Establishing Causation In situations where experiments are not possible for ethical or practical reasons, be cautious in accepting claims of causation.

  11. Good evidence of causation requires a strong association that appears consistently in many studies, a clear explanation for the alleged causal link, and careful examination of possible lurking variables. Establishing Causation

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