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Leadership 0510 Leadership in Uncertain Times Peter Dickens, MTS Director: Tyndale Centre for Leadership pdickens@tyndale.ca. Heifetz on Leadership. Clarity of the Problem. Clear. Unclear. Type I Technical Work. Clear and Available. Clarity of the Solution. Unclear and Unavailable.
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Leadership 0510Leadership in Uncertain TimesPeter Dickens, MTSDirector: Tyndale Centre for Leadershippdickens@tyndale.ca
Heifetz on Leadership Clarity of the Problem Clear Unclear Type I Technical Work Clear and Available Clarity of the Solution Unclear and Unavailable
Management and Leadership Leaders…… • Set direction • Align people with the vision • Motivate and and inspire Managers…… • Plan and budget • Organize and staff • Provide controls and solve problems Kotter, J. (2001) What Leaders Really Do. HBR On Point
Heifetz on Leadership Clarity of the Problem Clear Unclear Type I Technical Work Type IV Wishful Thinking Dogma Clear and Available Clarity of the Solution Type II Technical/ Adaptive Work Type III Highly Adaptive Work Unclear and Unavailable
Reflections on certainty Many of us develop partial understandings that we see as complete. The more certain we feel of them, the more they limit our freedom to think. We may have spent years building up these certainties, and beneath the fear of letting go of them is the fear of having nothing underneath. Peter Senge et al. The Dance of Change
Residual Uncertainty • If you want to develop better strategic choices under conditions of uncertainty, you have to understand the uncertainty you face • Certainty is not binary • Residual uncertainty: What’s left after the best possible analysis to separate the known from the unknowable Hugh Courtney. 20/20 Foresite
Levels 1 Uncertainty • Relatively clear view of the future • One or two obvious options Hugh Courtney. 20/20 Foresite
Leadership Strategies • Traditional • SWOT • Benchmarking • Competency-based Hugh Courtney. 20/20 Foresite
Summary of “Industrial” Leadership • Framed by level 1 uncertainty • These industrial age leadership theories have been: • management-oriented • Focused on the leader • goal-achievement-dominated • male-oriented • utilitarian and materialistic in ethical perspective • Rationalistic • Philip Rost, Leadership for the 21st Century
Level 2 Uncertainty • Relatively clear view of the future • Alternate futures • Mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive • One will occur Hugh Courtney. 20/20 Foresite
Level 2 Leadership Strategies • Traditional • Qualitative decision analysis Hugh Courtney. 20/20 Foresite
Leadership as Process Leadership isprocess whereby an individual influences a group of individuals to achieve a common goal. Peter Northouse. Leadership
Level 3 Uncertainty • Relatively clear view of the future • Alternate futures • Range of futures • Not mutually exclusive Hugh Courtney. 20/20 Foresite
Level 3 Leadership Strategies • Traditional • Qualitative decision analysis • Decision tree/cost-benefit analysis Hugh Courtney. 20/20 Foresite
Level 3 Strategy • Diversification • Insurance • A decision on where you will place your bets
Level 4 Uncertainty • Relatively clear view of the future • Alternate futures • Range of futures • True ambiguity • The future is unknown and unknowable Hugh Courtney. 20/20 Foresite
Peter Vaill: Permanent White Water • Conditions are full of surprises • Complex systems tend to produce novel problems • Conditions feature events that are “messy” and • Events are often very costly
Emerging Norms re: Uncertainty • Constant change • Collaborative focus • Possibility – orientation • Complex systems • Self-organizing agents
Self-organizing Systems • Innumerable variables determine outcomes • Small changes can change everything • The whole emerges out from the parts • Direction is determined by emergence and the participation of many people • Individual or systems behavior is unknowable, unpredictable, and uncontrollable
Leadership Strategies • Traditional • Qualitative decision analysis • Decision tree/cost benefit analysis • Work backwards Hugh Courtney. 20/20 Foresite
Working Backwards? • Start with a strategy • Is it aligned with our mission and values? • What do we have to believe about the future to support a defined strategy? • Do we believe that is likely? • Are we willing to bet on it?
Emerging Leadership Theory Leadership is not a position. To my knowledge, a promotion never made anyone a leader. Leadership is a fiduciary calling. Max DePree. Leadership is an Art.
Focus on Intent Leadership is an influence relationship among leaders and followers who intend real changes that reflect their mutual purposes. Philip Rost, Leadership for the 21st Century
Transformative Leadership Transformative leadership occurs when one or more people engage with others in such a way that leaders and followers raise one another to higher levels of motivations and morality. Burns. Transformative Leadership
Leadership as Service Leadership begins with the natural feeling that one wants to serve, to serve first .... The best test is: Do those served grow as persons; do they, while being served, become healthier, wiser, freer, more autonomous, or more likely to become servants themselves? Bob Greenleaf. Servant Leadership.
Leadership and Action Leadership means initiating action towards shared values and purpose. Dick Couto
Leadership in Self-Organizing Systems • Define the boundaries • Invite diversity • Create transforming exchanges • Serve the system
Reflection • What does this mean for your area of ministry? • What would you have to embrace? • What would you have to let go of?