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Emergency Management and Risk Analysis for Hazardous Materials Transport

Emergency Management and Risk Analysis for Hazardous Materials Transport. Shashi Nambisan Professor of Civil Engineering Dept of Civil & Environmental Engineering Transportation Research Center UNLV Seminar at the Dept. of Civil, Construction, and Environmental Engineering

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Emergency Management and Risk Analysis for Hazardous Materials Transport

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  1. Emergency Management and Risk Analysis for Hazardous Materials Transport • Shashi Nambisan • Professor of Civil Engineering • Dept of Civil & Environmental Engineering • Transportation Research Center • UNLV • Seminar at the • Dept. of Civil, Construction, and Environmental Engineering • Center for Transportation Research & Education • Iowa State University • November 5, 2004

  2. Emergency Management • Disasters / Emergencies • Natural • Man Made • Epidemics

  3. Natural Disasters • Earthquakes • Fires • Floods and Dam failures • Hurricanes / Tornadoes • Land slides / Mudslides • Volcanoes

  4. Man Made Disasters • Accidental, Intentional • Chemical releases, spills • Explosions • Radioactive: power plant • Transportation: air, pipeline, road, rail, water • Fire

  5. Emergency Management Phases • Preparedness • Response • Recovery • Mitigation Transportation is always a factor

  6. Analyses to Support Emergency Management • Hazard Analysis • Risk Assessment • Vulnerability Assessment • Criticality Analysis

  7. Hazard or Risk? Vulnerable or Critical??

  8. Key Terms • Susceptibility: How prone is a system to weaknesses • Vulnerability: The susceptibility to losses due to exposure to hazard • Reliability: The complement to vulnerability; describes adequate serviceability under the operating conditions encountered at a given time • Resiliency: The ability to recover to normal or near normal state of operations

  9. Risk Assessment • Risk Assessment = f (Event, Probability, Consequence) • Probability of event “i”, Pi • Consequence of events, Ci • Risk of one event, Ri = Pi * Ci (?) • Other Models (Non-linear, Exponential, … ) • Risk of all events = S Ri ?

  10. Vulnerability Assessment • Analysis of a system for weaknesses • Probability of an attack on the weaknesses • Factors • Ease of access • Ability and time required to “harden” the system / element

  11. Criticality Considerations • Impacts on human life • Environmental impacts • Economic impacts • Duration of impact

  12. Radioactive Materials Transport • Nuclear Waste Policy Act (1982) & Amendments • High Level Waste, Spent Nuclear Fuel • Routing Issues • Public Safety • Emergency Preparedness

  13. Background • Nuclear Power / HLRW • Origins • 76 power plants • 4 DOE facilities • NWPA, NWPAA • Investigate Yucca Mountain as the Only Potential Site • Designated Yucca Mountain as THE repository site • Transport Modes: • Highway • Rail • Combination of Both

  14. Us Reactor Sites With Hazmat Volumes

  15. Transport Related Issues • Risk Analysis / Minimization • Population • Environment • Infrastructure • Emergency Response

  16. Population • Resident • Non-Resident / Visitor • Resort Corridor • Proximity to I-15 and Union Pacific RR Track • ~100,000 hotel rooms • Special Populations • Schools • Hospitals, Health Care Facilities • Assisted Living Facilities • Prisons

  17. Environmental Issues • F&F? • Plants & Animals • Habitats • Foraging Patterns • Migration Patterns • Endangered, Threatened, …

  18. Infrastructure • Networks • Transport • Utility • Structural Adequacy • Carriage Way (Pavement / Track Structure) • Bridges, Tunnels • Functional Adequacy • Load • Geometrics (Clearances) • Impacts: Operations, Life Cycle Costs • System Safety • System Redundancy

  19. Emergency Response: Performance Indicators (MOEs) • Incident assessment time • First responder time • First qualified responder time • Evacuation time • Extent of impact • Population and classes of population • Area (square miles, number of blocks, towns, cities) • Environment • Extent of “avoided” impact

  20. Risk Assessment • Scenarios: • Routine Operations • Accident / Incident • Consequences • Radiological • Non-radiological • Identify all Events for Each Scenario • Estimate Pi and Ci; then Ri

  21. Risk Assessment

  22. Highway Access To Yucca Mountain

  23. Infrastructure

  24. NEVADA POPULATION DENSITY

  25. Police and Sheriff Local Response Times Across Nevada

  26. Access Routes To Yucca Mtn Using Any Route

  27. Yucca Mtn Highway Routes Through Wendover, NV

  28. Yucca Mtn Highway Routes Through US 95/ Amargosa Valley

  29. Summary • Emergency Preparedness • Risk Assessment • SNF & HLW Transport • Population • Environment • Infrastructure • Emergency Response • Communications

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