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Measuring Public Opinion

Chapter 18, Section IV. Measuring Public Opinion. Traditional Methods. Political Party Organizations Party leaders in cities communicated with national party leaders keeping them posted about the publics attitudes and opinions Interest Groups

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Measuring Public Opinion

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  1. Chapter 18, Section IV Measuring Public Opinion

  2. Traditional Methods • Political Party Organizations • Party leaders in cities communicated with national party leaders keeping them posted about the publics attitudes and opinions • Interest Groups • Often represent only a small vocal minority concerned with a specific issue

  3. Traditional Methods • Mass Media • Newscasts that get higher ratings show more public interest • Drawbacks are that media relies on shock value and this can distort reality • People that get their news solely from TV tend to be pessimistic

  4. Traditional Methods • Shock Value Examples

  5. Traditional Methods • Letter Writing • Interest groups stage massive letter writing campaigns generating thousands of letters • National Write Your Congressman • For profit service that sums up legislation and helps you contact your elected officials • Purple Letter • For profit servicethat helps you contact electedofficials

  6. Traditional Methods • Electronic Access • Email • Fax • Twitter • Internet • Straw Polls • Unscientific attempts to measure public opinion • Biased sample – people who respond are self selected (they choose to respond)

  7. Scientific Polling • Sample Populations • The Universe: group of people being studied • If I asked the senior class where the prom should be held, what would be the universe? • Representative Sample: Small group of people representative of the universe • If I asked every fourth senior homeroom the same question, I would have a representative sample of your class • Random Sampling: Everyone in the universe has an equal chance of being selected • 1,200-1,500 adults accurately measure the opinions of 212 million people

  8. Scientific Polling • Sampling Error: How much the sample results may differ from the sample universe • 1,200-1,500 people give us an error of +/- 3% • Unskewed Polls

  9. Scientific Polling • Sampling Procedures • Cluster Sampling – organizing sampling by geographical divisions • Race • Gender • Age • Education

  10. Scientific Polling • Poll Questions • Do you believe serial murderers should be executed? • Do you support capital punishment?

  11. Scientific Polling • Mail and Phone Polls • Cheaper than in home interviews • Less polls are returned (mail only 10-15%) • Random Digit Dialing • Area code and first three digits are selected and a computer picks the last 4 • People don’t answer the phone, or don’t want to answer the questions

  12. Scientific Polling • Interpreting Results • Never completely accurate • Honesty? • Has improved greatly since its inception in the 1930’s • Can usually predict outcomes within a few percentage points

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