12-2

1. Experimental Probability 12-2 Course 1 Warm Up Lesson Presentation

2. Experimental Probability 12-2 7 __ , 14% 50 Course 1 Warm Up Write impossible, unlikely, as likely as not, likely, or certain to describe each event. 1.A particular person’s birthday falls on the first of a month. 2. You roll an odd number on a fair number cube. 3. There is a 0.14 probability of picking the winning ticket. Write this as a fraction and as a percent. unlikely as likely as not

3. Experimental Probability 12-2 Course 1 Learn to find the experimental probability of an event.

4. Experimental Probability 12-2 Course 1 Insert Lesson Title Here Vocabulary experiment outcome experimental probability

5. Experimental Probability 12-2 Course 1 An experiment is an activity involving chance that can have different results. Flipping a coin and rolling a number cube are examples of experiments. Unit 8 The different results that can occur are called outcomes of the experiment. If you are flipping a coin, heads is one possible outcome. Unit 8

6. Experimental Probability 12-2 Course 1 Additional Example 1A: Identifying Outcomes For each experiment, identify the outcome shown. tossing two coins outcome shown: tails, heads (T, H)

7. Experimental Probability 12-2 Course 1 Additional Example 1B: Identifying Outcomes For each experiment, identify the outcome shown. rolling two number cubes outcome shown: (2, 6)

8. Experimental Probability 12-2 4 3 C D Course 1 Check It Out: Example 1A For each experiment, identify the outcome shown. spinning two spinners outcome shown: C3

9. Experimental Probability 12-2 Course 1 Check It Out: Example 1B For each experiment, identify the outcome shown. tossing two coins outcome shown: heads, heads (H, H)

10. Experimental Probability 12-2 Course 1 Performing an experiment is one way to estimate the probability of an event. If an experiment is repeated many times, the experimental probability of an event is the ratio of the number of times the event occurs to the total number of times the experiment is performed.

11. Experimental Probability 12-2 Course 1 Writing Math The probability of an event can be written as P(event). P(blue) means “the probability that blue will be the outcome.”

12. Experimental Probability 12-2 Course 1 Additional Example 2: Finding Experimental Probability For one month, Mr. Crowe recorded the time at which his train arrived. He organized his results in a frequency table.

13. Experimental Probability 12-2 P(between 6:57 and 7:00)  5 1 __ ___ = = 4 20 number of times the event occurs ___________________________ total number of trials Course 1 Additional Example 2A Continued Find the experimental probability of the train arriving between 6:57 and 7:00.

14. Experimental Probability 12-2 7 + 8 _____ = 20 3 15 ___ __ = = 20 4 number of times the event occurs ___________________________ P(before 6:57)  total number of trials Before 6:57 includes 6:50-6:52 and 6:53-6:56. Course 1 Additional Example 2B: Finding Experimental Probability Find the experimental probability of the train arriving before 6:57.

15. Experimental Probability 12-2 Course 1 Check It Out: Example 2 For one month, Ms. Simons recorded the time at which her bus arrived. She organized her results in a frequency table.

16. Experimental Probability 12-2 4 + 8 _____ = 24 1 12 ___ __ = = 24 2 number of times the event occurs ___________________________ P(before 4:51)  total number of trials Before 4:51 includes 4:31-4:40 and 4:41-4:50. Course 1 Check It Out: Example 2A Find the experimental probability that the bus will arrive before 4:51.

17. Experimental Probability 12-2 P(between 4:41 and 4:50)  8 1 __ ___ = = 3 24 number of times the event occurs ___________________________ total number of trials Course 1 Check It Out: Example 2B Find the experimental probability that the bus will arrive between 4:41 and 4:50.

18. Experimental Probability 12-2 Find the experimental probability of each outcome. Course 1 Additional Example 3: Comparing Experimental Probabilities Erika tossed a cylinder 30 times and recorded whether it landed on one of its bases or on its side. Based on Erika’s experiment, which way is the cylinder more likely to land?

19. Experimental Probability 12-2 9 9 21 21 ___ ___ ___ ___ = < = 30 30 30 30 P(base)  P(side)  number of times the event occurs number of times the event occurs ___________________________ ___________________________ total number of trials total number of trials Compare the probabilities. It is more likely that the cylinder will land on its side. Course 1 Additional Example 3 Continued

20. Experimental Probability 12-2 Find the experimental probability of each outcome. Course 1 Check It Out: Example 3 Chad tossed a dome 25 times and recorded whether it landed on its base or on its side. Based on Chad’s experiment, which way is the dome more likely to land?

21. Experimental Probability 12-2 5 5 20 20 ___ ___ ___ ___ = < = 25 25 25 25 P(side)  P(base)  number of times the event occurs number of times the event occurs ___________________________ ___________________________ total number of trials total number of trials Compare the probabilities. It is more likely that the dome will land on its base. Course 1 Check It Out: Example 3 Continued

22. Experimental Probability 12-2 Course 1 Insert Lesson Title Here Lesson Quiz: Part I 1. The spinner below was spun. Identify the outcome shown. outcome: green

23. Experimental Probability 12-2 2 4 2 __ __ __ 9 9 3 Course 1 Insert Lesson Title Here Lesson Quiz: Part II Sandra spun the spinner above several times and recorded the results in the table. 2. Find the experimental probability that the spinner will land on blue. 3. Find the experimental probability that the spinner will land on red. 4. Based on the experiment, what is the probability that the spinner will land on red or blue?