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Data and methods for establishing numbers of migrants to and from the UK Emma Wright & Fiona Aitchison

Data and methods for establishing numbers of migrants to and from the UK Emma Wright & Fiona Aitchison. Outline. Estimates of Long-term International Migration: Methods & Data Sources Latest Results Recent developments and improvements Population estimates by ethnic group:

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Data and methods for establishing numbers of migrants to and from the UK Emma Wright & Fiona Aitchison

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  1. Data and methods for establishing numbers of migrants to and from the UKEmma Wright & Fiona Aitchison

  2. Outline • Estimates of Long-term International Migration: • Methods & Data Sources • Latest Results • Recent developments and improvements • Population estimates by ethnic group: • Methods & Data Sources • Latest Results • Future work

  3. Definition of an international migrant “Someone who changes his or her country of usual residence for a period of at least a year…” • UN definition of a long-term international migrant

  4. Asylum Seeker Adjustment Visitor Switchers IPS Migrants Migrant Switchers Components of Long-Term International Migration (LTIM) Long- Term International Migration Northern Ireland adjustment

  5. Long-Term International Migration

  6. Long-Term International Migration by Country of Birth, 2008

  7. Improvements to migration reporting Migration Statistics Quarterly Report (MSQR): • Summarises quarterly data releases on migration published by ONS, DWP, Home Office, and GROS • Provisional estimates of Long-Term International Migration (since Aug 2010) • Compares data sources and provides a coherent picture of latest trends

  8. Improvements to migration reporting • Latest MSQR published 26 August 2010 • Provisional LTIM and IPS estimates for year ending December 2009 • APS estimates of population by country of birth and nationality • Also administrative sources: • NINos allocated to overseas nationals (DWP) • WRS applicants, entry clearance visas, asylum applications and grants of settlement (Home Office)

  9. Long-Term International Migration

  10. Migration Statistics Improvement Programme Phase One: Recently completed….. • Improvements to methods: • Improved sub-national distribution of international migration – both immigration and emigration • Improved estimation of internal migration of students using HESA data • Mid-year population estimates for 2002 to 2008 revised May 2010 • Estimates of short-term migration • Migration indicators • Coherent reporting and increased timeliness of data • Improvements to IPS sample design • Data Visualisation • Work on accuracy of population estimates

  11. Migration Statistics Improvement Programme Phase Two: Just starting…. • Use of administrative sources • Statistical benefits of e-Borders • Methodology developments • User engagement: MSIP seminars being held in Leeds, Coventry, London and Newport during October – for details see http://www.ons.gov.uk/about-statistics/methodology-and-quality/imps/mig-stats-improve-prog/comm-stakeholders/msip-roadshows-2010/index.html

  12. Population Estimates • Mid-year population estimates • national, regional, local authority • mid-2009 estimates published June 2010 • Population estimates by marital status • Small area population estimates • Population estimates byethnic group

  13. Population Estimates by Ethnic Group • Experimental Statistics first published in 2005 • Local Authority level for England and Wales • Currently covers period mid-2001 to mid-2007 • Published on ONS website: http://www.statistics.gov.uk/StatBase/Product.asp?vlnk=14238

  14. Definitions • Classification is one used for 2001 Census • 16 way classification fitting into broad ethnic categories: • White • Mixed • Asian • Black • Chinese or Other • Self defined based on: nationality, religion, country of birth, skin colour, racial group, geographic background,…

  15. Methodology • Standard Cohort Component Method Current estimate = Previous year’s estimate + Births - Deaths + Net migration (internal and international)

  16. Births Methodology • Fertility Profiles are estimated by ethnic group and single year of age from 2001 Census data • Two profiles: ‘London’ and ‘England excluding London’ • Profiles used to estimate number of births to mothers in each ethnic group • Scaled back to number of births given by birth registration data • Adjusted to create estimates of births by ethnicity of the child

  17. Deaths Methodology • No reliable source that includes data on ethnicity • Uses age-specific mortality rates calculated using registered deaths and population at risk (MYE) • Effectively assumes no difference in mortality rates of different ethnic groups

  18. Internal Migration Methodology • Moves by ethnic group between local authorities within England & Wales • 2001 Census data used to estimate number of migrants leaving each LA by ethnic group • Origin-Destination Matrix calculated from 2001 Census data used to allocate a destination to these migrants (adjusted for different ethnic groups) • Constrained to total internal moves used to calculate MYEs (based on GP Registration data) • Moves by ethnic group between England & Wales and the rest of the UK • Adjusted for certain ethnic flows e.g. White Irish to/from Northern Ireland

  19. International Migration Methodology • Similar methodology as for mid-year population estimates (MYEs) but additional processes to estimate ethnicity of migrants • Four main components: • IPS • Visitor Switchers • Asylum Seekers • Irish Flows

  20. International Migration Methodology • IPS/Visitor Switchers • Total in-flow and out-flow already estimated for MYEs • Ethnic group breakdown of total in-flows and out-flows for England & Wales modelled using country of birth data • Ethnic group breakdown of in-flows to local authorities calculated by applying proportions from 2001 Census • Ethnic group breakdown of out-flows from local authorities calculated by applying ethnic group specific probabilities of emigrating, to the LA population

  21. International Migration Methodology • Asylum Seekers • Ethnic group modelled from nationality data on asylum seekers and same Census country of birth/ethnicity cross-tabulation • Irish Flows • Assigned an ethnic group based on flows from the Republic of Ireland recorded in the 2001 Census

  22. Latest Results • Population of England & Wales by broad ethnic group, mid-2007

  23. Latest Results • Comparison of percentage of population in each broad ethnic group for England & Wales, mid-2001 versus mid-2007

  24. Results – More Detail

  25. Latest Results

  26. Latest Results – zoomed in…

  27. Future Developments • Data for mid-2002 to mid-2007 to be revised to reflect revisions to mid-year estimates published in May 2010 • New annual estimates will continue to be produced • Continuing research to improve methodology • Comparison with 2011 Census results when available

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