Regional Planning Directors’ Meeting July 22, 2011 Growth Allocation Project Metro

1. REGIONAL GROWTH / FORECAST ALLOCATION Regional Planning Directors’ Meeting July 22, 2011 Growth Allocation Project Metro Planning & Development Department Research Center

2. REGIONAL GROWTH / FORECAST ALLOCATION Welcome & Introductions (Hoglund)

3. REGIONAL GROWTH / FORECAST ALLOCATION Overview of Meeting Materials & Agenda (Hoglund) MAPS & DOCUMENTS • Regional Zoning Map • Clackamas County’s Regional Zoning • Multnomah County’s Regional Zoning • Washington County’s Regional Zoning • TAZ Map • 2010 Base Year Household Map • 2010 Base Year Employment Map • Urban Reserve Urbanization Assumptions Map • Total Capacity Map

4. REGIONAL GROWTH / FORECAST ALLOCATION Overview of Meeting Materials Cont’d • Capacity Information • Regional Capacity Pie Chart • Capacity by City and County (unincorporated) • Urban Reserve Urbanization Assumptions paper • BLI Methodology Paper • Summary of Local Governments reviews of growth allocation products

5. REGIONAL GROWTH / FORECAST ALLOCATION Completion of Basic Data Sets • Local to Regional Zoning highlights (Yee) • Base Year Household Estimates (Yee) • Base Year Employment Estimates (Yee) • TAZ Boundary –changes requested and made (Uba)

6. REGIONAL GROWTH / FORECAST ALLOCATION (Yee)

8. Presentation Format & Guidelines (Hoglund) Questions for agenda item D will be answered during the presentation of agenda item E

9. Buildable Land Capacity Results(Yee) Single Family Zoned Land Capacity Multifamily & Mixed Use Residential Zoned Land Capacity Employment (Commercial and Industrial Zoned Land Capacity

10. Figure 1: Residential capacity for greater Portland metropolitan area

11. Figure 2: Metro UGB Residential Capacity (includes subsidized redevelopment and urban reserves)

12. Figure 3: Metro UGB Residential Capacity

13. Figure 4: Metro UGB Residential Capacity Estimates / Reviewed Inputs from Local Governments

14. Figure 5: Metro UGB Residential Capacity / Reviewed Inputs from Local Governments – Single Family Residential Capacity Estimate

15. Figure 6: Metro UGB Residential Capacity / Reviewed Inputs from Local Governments –Multifamily (and Mixed Use residential) Capacity Estimate

16. Overview of Revised Regional Methods for BLI & Capacity (Hoglund) Vacant & redevelopment identification by zoning Exempt tax lots identification Environmentally constrained land identification (Title 3 & 13) Single family vacant & redevelopment land capacity Multifamily & Mixed use vacant & redevelopment land capacity

17. Overview of Revised Regional Methods Cont’d Employment (commercial and industrial) vacant land redevelopment land capacity method Urban reserve areas urbanization / capacity assumptions method Ex-urban city / county supply assumptions

18. Vacant Land Identification by Zoning (Yee)

19. Environmentally Constrained Land Identification (Title 3 & 13) (Mensher)

21. Exceptions Methodology (Kelley / Todd)

22. Exempt Tax Lots Identification Tax Exempt / Ownership Do all “Buildable Lands” hold capacity for future housing or jobs? • Yes / No • Why?

23. Although technically vacant and buildable, many lands are not likely to support new residential or commercial development over the next 20 to 30 years. EXAMPLES:

24. The majority of the following lands are removed from the buildable lands supply: • Private Streets; • Drainage detention facilities; • Shared lands under “common ownership”: Condominiums, HOA’s …etc. • Lands owned by: • Federal, State or Local Governments (some exceptions); • School Districts; • Park & Recreation Districts; • Churches and Fraternal Organizations; • Railroads, Transit Authority; • Golf Courses; • Utilities – (water, sewer, power, natural gas …etc.) • Exceptions:Urban Renewal Agencies, Housing Authorities, Port Authority, PDC

25. SINGLE FAMILY RESIDENTIALCAPACITY METHODOLOGY

26. Vacant Land Calculations Allowed Density from ‘regional zone class table’ (Regional Zoning Crosswalk) No Constraints • Tax lot Area / Minimum lot size = Estimated Capacity in Units (rounded down to nearest whole unit) • EXAMPLE: 11,000 sq. ft. lot / 5,000 sq. ft. min. = 2.2 (rounded down) = 2.0 units capacity

27. Single Family Infill • Developed single family parcels that are larger than 2.5 times the minimum zoned lot size (2.2 in Portland) are considered available for infill development. • After making a deduction for the existing house, the rest of the developed parcel is treated the same as vacant land.

28. Vacant & Infill Land with Constraints • First, calculate capacity as if the whole lot was unconstrained.  Next, calculate capacity with a density transfer on the unconstrained portion, assuming each unit could be built with 2,000 sq ft of unconstrained area (1,000 sq ft in Portland).  • Take the minimum of these calculations to ensure the density transfer does not allow more units on the lot than would have been allowed if the whole lot had been unconstrained. • Some example calculations:

29. DU Capacity = tax lot area/ min. lot size (rounded down to nearest whole unit) Example:12,000 sq. ft. lot (w/1,200 sq. ft. buildable area) / 5,000 sq. ft. min. = 2.4 (rounded down) = 2.0 units capacity 12,000 sq. ft lot: 10,800 sq. ft. constrained 1,200 sq. ft. buildable area:

30. DU Capacity = unconstrained sq. ft. / 1,000 sq. ft. (rounded down to nearest whole unit) Example:12,000 sq. ft. lot w/1,200 sq. ft. buildable area /1,000 sq. ft. = 1.2 (rounded down) = 1.0 unit capacity 12,000 sq. ft lot: 10,800 sq. ft. constrained 1,200 sq. ft. buildable area:

31. MULTIFAMILY AND MIXED USE RESIDENTIAL CAPACITY METHODOLOGY (Armstrong /Conrad)

32. Vacant Land Capacity Calculations • Allowed Density from regional zone class table • No Constraints • Land Area * Allowed Density = Estimated Capacity in Units

33. Vacant Land with Constraints • Assumes Complete Transfer of Development Rights from constrained portion of lot • Low Density ( < 50 units/acre) • If Tax Lot < 5,000 sq. feet unconstrained lot area • 1 unit per 1,000 sq. feet unconstrained lot area • If > 5,000 sq. feet unconstrained lot area • Tax Lot * Allowed Density = Estimated Capacity in Units • High Density ( > 50 units/acre) • If Tax Lot < 10,000 sq. feet unconstrained lot area • 1 unit per 1,000 sq. feet unconstrained lot area • If > 10,000 sq. feet unconstrained lot area • Tax Lot * Allowed Density = Estimated Capacity in Units

34. MULTIFAMILY AND MIXED USE RESIDENTIAL REDVELOPMENT METHODOLOGY

35. Possible Redevelopment Sites • To be considered, the site must be either • SFR development in MFR or MUR zoning, or • Low density MF apartment (or condo) development in high density MFR or MUR zoning, or • Commercial (or light industrial) development in MUR zoning.

36. Redevelopment Thresholds • If currently built as MF • Then must add at least 50% more DUs • If currently built as SF, Com or Ind • Then must add at least 3 more DUs • Must exceed economic filter thresholds

37. Economic Thresholds • IF total assessed value / total lot area is less than threshold THEN eligible for redevelopment • Economic Threshold Values

38. Subsidized Redevelopment (Yee)

39. Employment (Commercial and Industrial) Vacant and Redevelopment Land Capacity Method (Todd)

40. Vacant Land • Apply the same kind of filters as residential, to exclude: • tax exempt • schools • utilities • etc. • Deduct 20% of environmentally constrained area as unbuildable • Capacity is measured in acres

41. Developed Land In addition to these filters and a 20% environmental deduction, developed lots are subjected to a set of economic criteria to determine eligibility for redevelopment:

42. Part Vacant Land • This approach does not account for large parcels that are only partially developed, with large vacant pieces being held for future development. • Developed tax lots that did not meet the redevelopment filter criteria were sent through an additional screen to identify the capacity on these parcels. • If a tax lot did not get through the redevelopment filter criteria, but has at least 1 acre of vacant land, the vacant portion is added to the supply.

43. Urban Reserve Areas Urbanization / Capacity Assumptions Method (Uba)

44. Process & Methodology • Agreement on urbanization criteria • Infrastructure (water, sewer, transportation) • Complete community possibility • Governance • Application of criteria and determination of urbanization timing • Urbanization timing for each UR, including split URs • Applying zoning to get capacity estimate for each UR

45. Ex-urban City / County Supply Assumptions (Cser)

46. Buildable land outside the current UGB and Urban Reserve areas but still inside the three-county region; received information from two sources: • Unincorporated Ex-Urban Areas • Rural residential land • Measure 49 claims •   Neighbor Cities • Information about future capacity received from local governments • Otherwise, capacity projections based on current conditions

47. Determine Point Forecast from Forecast Range (Reid)

48. Population growth forecast7-county region

49. Household growth forecast7-county region

50. Employment growth forecast7-county region