Public Opinion

1. Public Opinion Chapter 11

2. In this discussion we will learn about The role of public opinion in a democracy How public opinion can be measured Where our opinions come from What our opinions are: do we think like the “ideal citizen”? The relationship of citizenship to public opinion

3. The role of public opinionin a democracy Why public opinion ought to matter: The government’s legitimacy rests on the idea that government exists to serve the interests of its citizens. Why public opinion does matter: Politicians act as though they believe the public is keeping tabs on them.

5. Measuring and tracking public opinion Informal measures of public opinion E.g., personal contacts (snowball sampling), mail from citizens Does not yield accurate and reliable results in survey research. Allows politicians to pick up issues that could be missed in polls Likely to have a sample bias Where one group of people or one opinion is over represented.

6. Measuring and tracking public opinion, cont’d. Development of modern public opinion polls Straw polls (polls with non-binding results to assess attitudes and opinions, and to see if there is enough support for an idea) Literary Digest and the 1936 presidential election (attempt to predict the winner of the election between Landon and Roosevelt with a non-random sample. Literary Digest predicted Landon by 14%) The 1948 presidential election (mistake by Gallup)

7. The 1936 Presidential Election 1936 - President Roosevelt was re-elected with 61% of the vote. Gallup, using random sampling, predicted a Roosevelt victory with 54% of the vote. The Literary Digest predicted Roosevelt would lose badly to the Republican nominee, Alf Landon. The Literary Digest predominately sampled people with phones.

8. Gallup used quota sampling and stopped polling a week before the election. • Truman won by 3.5%

9. The entire universe of possible data is called the Population A subset of the population is called the Sample So What is a Sample?

10. Simple Random Samples: Each element has the same chance of selection Stratified Random Samples: Divide the population into groups of some sort (gender, race, income, many others), and sample from each stratum i.e. draw from a group that is predominately male or draw from a group that is predominately female Main Types of Sampling

11. How do you know how large your sample should be? Desired accuracy: sampling error Typically, the larger your sample, the lower your error However, the larger your sample, the more expensive Most of the time in social science research, want to be able to say with 95% certainly, so can put up with about a 5% (.05) error Sample Size

12. Sampling Error Sample Size Sampling Error Sample Size 1.0 10,000 5.5 330 1.5 4,500 6.0 277 2.0 2,500 7.0 204 2.5 1,600 7.5 178 3.0 1,100 8.0 156 3.5 816 8.5 138 4.0 625 9.0 123 4.5 494 9.5 110 5.0 400 10.0 100 Sampling Size Table(also depends on filters)

13. On-line sample calculators • http://www.ezsurvey.com/samplesize.html

14. A sample must contain essentially the same variations that exist in the population Representativeness: You want all members of the population to have an equal chance of being selected in the sample A truly random sample is typically a representative sample Nonrepresentativeness: units in sample are not typical of the larger population of interest. Potential types: Bias Error Why is Probability Important?

15. Measuring and tracking public opinion Importance of asking the right question Respondents should be asked things they know and have thought about. Questions should not be ambiguous. Questions should not be loaded. The problem of “push polling”

16. Beware of push polls • Apush pollis a political campaign technique in which an individual or organization attempts to influence or alter the view of respondents under the guise of conducting a poll. In a push poll, large numbers of respondents are contacted, and little or no effort is made to collect and analyze response data. Instead, the push poll is a form of telemarketing propaganda and rumor mongering, masquerading as a poll. Push polling has been condemned by the American Association of Political Consultants, and is illegal in New Hampshire.

19. Full push poll

20. Push poll and poorly written questions An example from George W’s push poll against John McCain: “Would you be more or less likely to support John McCain if you knew he had fathered an illegitimate child who was black?" Question that is ambiguous because it uses a double negative: Does it seem possible or does it seem impossible to you that the Nazi extermination of Jews never happened? Better question Does it seem possible to you that the Nazi extermination of the Jews never happened, or do you feel certain that it happened?

21. Real World Example Scientific Poll . tab i2 m2rc, co chi2 safe | Post-Dispatch streets | don't read during week everyday | Total yes | 910 424 439 | 1773 | 70.16 78.23 78.96 | 74.03 no | 356 109 104 | 569 | 27.45 20.11 18.71 | 23.76 don’tknow| 27 8 13 | 48 | 2.08 1.48 2.34 | 2.00 refused | 4 1 0 | 5 | 0.31 0.18 0.00 | 0.21 Total | 1297 542 556 | 2395 | 100.00 100.00 100.00 | 100.00 Pearson chi2(6) = 25.0741 Pr = 0.000 Dependent Independent Column %, Read across

22. Measuring and trackingpublic opinion, cont’d. How accurate are scientific polls? Generally can pick the winner of the election Not correct to the percentage point because of margin of error More accurate the closer one gets to the election, and the more accurate the larger the sample size Problem: survey results are a “snap-shot in time” and opinions are fluid.

23. What influences our opinions about politics? Family Schools and education Groups The spiral of silence The process by which a majority opinion becomes exaggerated because minorities do not feel comfortable speaking out in opposition Political and social events Tip O’Neill “all politics is local”

24. Sources of division in public opinion Self-interest Focus on self vs. focus on community Self (more likely to be Adam Smith Republicans) Education As education increases, so does the likelihood that one will vote Democrat (holding constant income) Age Although changing, the older one is the more they are likely to be a Republican; political generations Sex (The gender gap) Women are more like to support the Democratic party than men.

25. The Gender Gap

27. More “Gaps”

28. Sources of division inpublic opinion, cont’d. The Marriage Gap Married people are more likely to say they are conservative than non-married or “partnered” people. Race and ethnicity With the exception of the Cuba population in Florida, minorities are more likely to support the Democratic party than non-minorities. Religion Protestants (Republican leaning) Non-Religious (Democratic leaning) Catholic (Middle of the road)

29. Sources of division in public opinion, cont’d. Geographical region South more likely to be Republican leaning (after realignment) than non-Southern states.

30. The citizens and public opinion Shortcuts to political knowledge On-line processing the ability to receive and evaluate information as events happen, allowing us to remember our evaluation even if we have forgotten the specific events that caused it • - Two-step flow of information • the process by which citizens take their political cues from more well-informed opinion leaders • - Opinion leaders (family tradition) • - Looks and who you would like to have a beer with • The irrational electorate • Rational ignorance: the state of being uninformed about politics because of the cost in time and energy

31. Fun with Polls • http://www.pollingreport.com/ • Los Angels Time Poll (non-network funded) • Gallup • The Pew Research Center for People and the Press • National Election Study (U of Michigan)