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中国农业科学院 Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences (CAAS)

中国农业科学院 Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences (CAAS). 中国农业科学院 农业环境与可持续发展研究所 气候变化研究室 Institute of Environment and Sustainable Development in Agriculture (IEDA) / Research Division of Climate Change.

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中国农业科学院 Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences (CAAS)

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  1. 中国农业科学院 Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences (CAAS) 中国农业科学院 农业环境与可持续发展研究所 气候变化研究室Institute of Environment and Sustainable Development in Agriculture (IEDA) / Research Division of Climate Change 气候情景在宁夏北移冬小麦适应气候变化的成本效益分析中的应用Application of Climate Scenarios in Cost-benefit Analysis of Winter Wheat Northward as Adaptation Option to Climate Change in Ningxia农业环境与可持续发展研究所Institute of Environment and Sustainable Development in Agriculture (IEDA) No. 12 South Zhongguancun Avenue Haidian District, Beijing 100081, P.R. ChinaTel: +86-10-82106020; Website: http://www.ieda.org.cnE-mail: mashm@ami.ac.cn; shiming99ma@yahoo.com.cn北京 100081 海淀区 中关村南大街12号 马世铭 研究员 博士

  2. 中国农业科学院 农业环境与可持续发展研究所 气候变化研究室Institute of Environment and Sustainable Development in Agriculture (IEDA) / Research Division of Climate Change 提 纲 (Outline) • 背景－－Background • 研究内容和方法－－Methods • 研究结果（现状）－－Results（1） • 研究结果（预估）－－ Results （2） • 主要结论与建议－－ Main conclusions and Recommendations

  3. 背景--Background 中国农业科学院 农业环境与可持续发展研究所 气候变化研究室Institute of Environment and Sustainable Development in Agriculture (IEDA) / Research Division of Climate Change 研究区域 (Study areas)

  4. 中国农业科学院 农业环境与可持续发展研究所 气候变化研究室Institute of Environment and Sustainable Development in Agriculture (IEDA) / Research Division of Climate Change 宁夏年平均温度变化 Change of annual mean temperature in Ningxia

  5. 惠农 Huinong N39° 泾源JingyuanN35° 中国农业科学院 农业环境与可持续发展研究所 气候变化研究室Institute of Environment and Sustainable Development in Agriculture (IEDA) / Research Division of Climate Change

  6. 中国农业科学院 农业环境与可持续发展研究所 气候变化研究室Institute of Environment and Sustainable Development in Agriculture (IEDA) / Research Division of Climate Change 研究内容和方法－－Methods 农业适应技术调查 冬小麦北移 当地农业生产、气候、 数据搜集 成本效益分析 气候情景（A2,B2） CERES-Wheat 模型 分析气候变化对 冬小麦北移的贡献 适应技术效果现状评价 适应技术效果的未来评价 冬小麦北移生产建议 适应对策综合评估

  7. 中国农业科学院 农业环境与可持续发展研究所 气候变化研究室Institute of Environment and Sustainable Development in Agriculture (IEDA) / Research Division of Climate Change Methods Investigation of Adaptation Options Winter WheatNorthward Cost-benefit Climate ScenariosA2,B2 Climate Data CERES-Wheat Model Climate Analysis Assessment of Adaptation Options in Future Assessment of AdaptationOptions Adaptation Recommendations Adaptation Strategies

  8. 中国农业科学院 农业环境与可持续发展研究所 气候变化研究室Institute of Environment and Sustainable Development in Agriculture (IEDA) / Research Division of Climate Change 研究结果（现状）－－Results（1） 2007与2008年冬小麦和春小麦净利润 NPV （net present value）of winter wheat - spring wheat in 2007 and 2008

  9. 中国农业科学院 农业环境与可持续发展研究所 气候变化研究室Institute of Environment and Sustainable Development in Agriculture (IEDA) / Research Division of Climate Change 2007、2008年冬小麦套种玉米与春小麦套种玉米效益成本比率 BCR (benefit-cost-ratio) of winter wheat and spring wheat intercropping with maize in 2007 and 2008

  10. 中国农业科学院 农业环境与可持续发展研究所 气候变化研究室Institute of Environment and Sustainable Development in Agriculture (IEDA) / Research Division of Climate Change 冬季和春季平均温度变化Mean minimum temperature in winter and January

  11. 中国农业科学院 农业环境与可持续发展研究所 气候变化研究室Institute of Environment and Sustainable Development in Agriculture (IEDA) / Research Division of Climate Change 冬季和春季平均最低温度变化 Mean minimum temperature in winter and January

  12. 中国农业科学院 农业环境与可持续发展研究所 气候变化研究室Institute of Environment and Sustainable Development in Agriculture (IEDA) / Research Division of Climate Change 研究结果（预估）－－ Results （2） 预估的冬季和春季平均温度变化Mean temperature impact assessment of winter under A2 and B2 scenarios in irrigation areas of Ningxia

  13. 中国农业科学院 农业环境与可持续发展研究所 气候变化研究室Institute of Environment and Sustainable Development in Agriculture (IEDA) / Research Division of Climate Change 预估的冬季和春季平均最低温度变化 Mean minimum temperature in winter and January

  14. 中国农业科学院 农业环境与可持续发展研究所 气候变化研究室Institute of Environment and Sustainable Development in Agriculture (IEDA) / Research Division of Climate Change 在A2 和 B2情景下预估的冬小麦和春小麦产量Simulated yields of spring and winter wheat under A2 and B2 scenarios

  15. 中国农业科学院 农业环境与可持续发展研究所 气候变化研究室Institute of Environment and Sustainable Development in Agriculture (IEDA) / Research Division of Climate Change 未来净现值－－NPV in Future

  16. 中国农业科学院 农业环境与可持续发展研究所 气候变化研究室Institute of Environment and Sustainable Development in Agriculture (IEDA) / Research Division of Climate Change 主要结论－－Main conclusions • 种植冬小麦是能够带来效益的适应措施，特别是冬小麦套种玉米和复种蔬菜 • Winter wheat cropping could bring the benefit, especially by the intercropping with maize and vegetables. It’s one of beneficial adaptation options • 冬小麦种植成本与春小麦种植成本相近 • The costs by winter wheat cropping are nearly same as by spring wheat cropping • 1990年代最低平均温度的升高，为宁夏冬小麦种植提供了可能性 • The increased mean minimum temperature in 1990’s provided the possibility to grow winter in Ningxia • 总体而言，未来升高的温度将对冬小麦和春小麦生产产生不利影响 • Generally, the higher temperature in future would have adverse impacts both on spring wheat and winter wheat production • 农户冬小麦种植意愿受到冬小麦籽粒品质的影响 • The farmer’s willing to grow winter wheat is affected by the quality of winter wheat seed

  17. 中国农业科学院 农业环境与可持续发展研究所 气候变化研究室Institute of Environment and Sustainable Development in Agriculture (IEDA) / Research Division of Climate Change 建议－－Recommendations • 改进冬小麦品质－－Improving the quality of winter wheat seeds • 调整灌溉制度－－Adjustments of the irrigation systems • 开发新种植制度－－Development of new cropping systems • 提高机械化水平－－Improving the mechanization • 稳定扩大冬小麦种植面积－－Steadily development of winter wheat planting areas

  18. 中国农业科学院 农业环境与可持续发展研究所 气候变化研究室Institute of Environment and Sustainable Development in Agriculture (IEDA) / Research Division of Climate Change 中国农业科学院农业环境与可持续发展研究所 Institute of Environment and Sustainable Development in Agriculture (IEDA) Thank you for your attention

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