Addressing Critical Skills Issues at the NWS Climate Prediction Center: Agrometeorology

1. Addressing Critical Skills Issues at the NWS Climate Prediction Center: Agrometeorology Douglas Le Comte OFCM Workshop 23 September 2009

2. Introduction to CPC CPC Mission and Vision Vision • To be the world’s best and most trusted climate service center, using partnerships to develop cutting-edge climate products. Mission • We deliver climate prediction, monitoring, and assessment products for timescales from weeks to years to the Nation and the global community for the protection of life and property and the enhancement of the economy.

3. Operations and Development Branches OPERATIONAL ACTIVITIES: • Prepare long-range outlooks from one week to one year; improve forecasts; verify forecasts. • Stratospheric monitoring; UV forecasts • Disseminate global data for monitoring • Operate with USDA the Joint Agricultural Weather Facility • Produce assessments for the USAID Famine Early Warning System DEVELOPMENTAL ACTIVITIES: • Perform applied research • Monitor the state of the ocean-atmosphere climate system • Develop prediction techniques Predictthe Physical Environment “from the Sun to the Sea”

4. NWS and USDA Responsibilities at JAWF : NWS meteorologists provide global weather data, products, and expertise in interpretation of forecast models. USDA agricultural meteorologists merge the NWS information with climatological analyses and global agronomic data to arrive at the weather impact on agricultural production.

5. The FEWS Project Produce weekly hazards assessments for Africa, Central America/Hispaniola, and Afghanistan Designed to provide a “heads up” on conditions that could lead to food shortages

6. Critical Skills Needed for Agricultural Weather Monitoring • Knowledge of Climate • Normal precipitation in crop areas • Normal temperatures in crop areas • Knowledge of climate extremes • Knowledge of Agriculture • What are the crops and where are they grown? • Agronomic information: soil types, insects/diseases • Crop calendars: planting, pollination, growth stages, harvesting • Livestock vulnerabilities (heat, cold, snow) • Knowledge of Data • What data is available and how quickly? • How good is it? • How can I get more pertinent data and information? • Knowledge of Forecasting (Models: short term and long range) • Communication • Ability to create maps and graphs • Verbal and written skills, use of the Internet

7. Skill Gaps and Shortages Most new meteorologists have little to no experience or knowledge of agricultural meteorology - Few universities have meteorology/agriculture departments that teach this - Workers usually come from jobs not related to agriculture

8. Mission Impacts Minimal Impacts • Workers readily pick up required knowledge from co-workers and reference documents • Lack of knowledge and experience increases the time needed to train new workers • USDA has a greater need for workers with degrees and experience in agmet to fulfill their mission

9. Addressing Shortages Universities usually do not provide sufficient practical training and experience So • CPC and USDA provide informal on-the-job training • Retention at JAWF has been a problem: USDA is seen to provide more career enhancement opportunities than NWS/CPC • With recent changes at JAWF (on-site NWS personnel removed), the retention problem may not be as much of an issue • Similar retention problem with contractors working on the FEWS project—they seek more stability and opportunity • “Virtualization” of CPC JAWF activities takes advantage of efficiencies in software and communications

10. Recommendations • Consider developing WEBINAR and COMET training in agricultural meteorology and climatology • Support mentoring for new workers so that experienced workers can impart their knowledge to new recruits • More collaboration between NWS and USDA and agricultural users (seminars, meetings, joint projects, data/product exchange, etc.) • Enhance prediction capabilities at all time scales