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Macroeconomic Situation

Cotton Economic Report NCC Mid-Year Board Meeting August 17-19, 2005 Prepared by: Economic Services National Cotton Council. Macroeconomic Situation. Global economic growth for ’05 forecasts at 4% Down from last year’s level of 5.1%

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Macroeconomic Situation

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  1. Cotton Economic ReportNCC Mid-Year Board MeetingAugust 17-19, 2005Prepared by:Economic ServicesNational Cotton Council

  2. Macroeconomic Situation • Global economic growth for ’05 forecasts at 4% • Down from last year’s level of 5.1% • US economy grew at 3.8% in Q1 and preliminary estimate for Q2 is 3.4% • Unemployment at 5%, below year-ago level • Oil prices at record levels

  3. U.S. Crude Oil Spot Price

  4. U.S. #2 Diesel, Gulf Coast

  5. U.S. Cotton Production & Use

  6. 2005 U.S. Cotton Acreage Thousand Acres 2004 2005 % Actual Estimate Change Southeast 2,956 3,008 1.8 Mid-South 3,430 3,880 13.1 Southwest 6,155 6,120 -0.6 West 868 795 -8.4 ALL UPLAND13,40913,8032.9 ALL ELS 250 266 6.6 ALL COTTON 13,659 14,069 3.0

  7. U.S. Cotton Crop ConditionIndex Based on Ratings 10-Yr Hi ‘04 (855 #/ac) ‘05 (USDA @ 748 #/ac) ‘03 (730 #/ac) 10-Yr Lo

  8. U.S. Cotton Supply

  9. U.S. Cotton Demand

  10. U.S. Cotton Retail Consumption 2004 2005

  11. U.S. Cotton Textile Imports from China 2005 2004

  12. Active China Safeguards

  13. U.S. Cotton Textile Imports from ROW 2004 2005

  14. U.S. Cotton Mill Use 2004 2005

  15. U.S. Cotton Mill Use

  16. The Int’l Market & Trade

  17. Foreign Cotton Production & Use

  18. Change in ‘05 Production

  19. Change in ‘05 Mill Use

  20. World Cotton Trade Total Imports Imports by Top-10 US Cust.

  21. World Cotton Trade Total Imports Imports by Top-10 US Cust. US Exports

  22. Ending Stocks & Prices

  23. U.S. Cotton Ending Stocks

  24. World Cotton Ending Stocks

  25. Cotton Price

  26. Summary • Smaller world crop • But not as small as originally thought • Demand picture looks optimistic • Should exceed production • Cotton prices relative to polyester • China expected to purchase record amount from world market • Stocks continue to hang over the market

  27. Producers Cooperatives Warehouses Manufacturers Ginners Cottonseed Merchants

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