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Report to WGSIP on VACS activities

Report to WGSIP on VACS activities. Tanzania Workshop. The Tanzania Meteorological Agency (TMA) hosted the Variability of the African Climate System (VACS) workshop from 10th to 13th July 2006 at the Dar Es Salaam Conference Centre in Dar Es Salaam, Tanzania

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Report to WGSIP on VACS activities

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  1. Report to WGSIP on VACS activities

  2. Tanzania Workshop • The Tanzania Meteorological Agency (TMA) hosted the Variability of the African Climate System (VACS) workshop from 10th to 13th July 2006 at the Dar Es Salaam Conference Centre in Dar Es Salaam, Tanzania • The workshop was followed by a CLIVAR panel meeting from 13th to 15th July 2006 (sponsored by WMO, START International, NOAA, UKMO, Reading and TMA, among others)

  3. Outcomes • A scientist from each NMS in southern and East Africa was trained on the use of CPT as well as scientist from operational ocean agencies in the region (South Africa, Angola, Namibia, Mozambique, Tanzania, Mauritius, Kenya) • These operational scientists provided input into the evolving CLIVAR research programmes (e.g., SAGRADEX) for southern and East Africa respectively • Train the trainers workshop planned so that there is a CPT expert in each African sub-region (who will then disseminate CPT expertise locally (this person will then run own training workshops)) • Need was identified that better interaction is needed between COFs and regional institutions

  4. MOS tool from IRI CPT can be introduced to students how to use large-scale fields from global models to downscale for their region and application

  5. Southern African research activity & a proposal for a regional project – SAGRADEX Chris Reason & Richard Washington

  6. SAGRADEXa proposed regional study for southern Africa • The southern Africa region is characterised by very tight gradients in SST, topography, vegetation and soil moisture, and in this respect, is unique in the Southern Hemisphere, and in Africa as a whole • These gradients are fundamental for the regional climate and likely significantly modify the local / regional impacts of ENSO and other large scale climate modes over many parts of southern Africa • These gradients, and the associated ones in rainfall, determine land use, appropriate farming practice and result in high bio-diversity (South Africa has the 3rd largest biodiversity after Brazil and Indonesia) but also in very sensitive / fragile ecosytems in a region prone to frequent drought and flooding events • Models have difficulty in adequately resolving these gradients – this hampers understanding of regional climate variability, seasonal forecasting and climate prediction efforts, and assessing the likely impacts of climate change over the region.

  7. Status on SAGRADEX Funding has been obtained from the UK Royal Society and the South African National Research Foundation to hold a workshop later this year to develop a White Paper for funding agencies

  8. Young African scientists research day • VACS organized a Young African Scientist Research Day at the WCRP JSC meeting in Zanzibar in March 2007 • A special issue in IJoC is being organised to publish the research presented by the YAS at the JSC meeting • Review of ICSU Regional Office for Africa Research Programme and START PACOM (Pan-African Committee) AFRICANNESS proposal (Earth System Science in Africa)

  9. Indian Ocean Panel • IOP4 was held at the SAWS to promote interaction with African scientist on the impacts of Indian Ocean variability on African climate • Better interaction was proposed between IOP and WGSIP

  10. The dominant pattern of interannual variability in the observed central-eastern/southern Africa rainfall can be qualitatively reproduced in the AGCM by using either global or Indian-Ocean-only SSTs to drive the model

  11. The central-eastern/southern African dipole pattern is not reproduced; instead rainfall anomalies are of the same sign over both southern and much of eastern Africa Different here Not different here

  12. Largest response: Exp 3 Exp 1 Exp 2 Modelling work suggest that AGCMs are sensitive to SSTs in the SWIO

  13. No ENSO, no skill!!!

  14. 0.2887 0.3164 0.4400 0.5072 0.3734

  15. Cloud bands influence southern African climate variability during the austral summer

  16. UKMO collaboration • Fully-coupled model forecasts to be included in SAWS multi-model system • SAWS modellers to test forecast system’s ability to simulate, amongst other, TTTs • Current UKMO system to be replaced in 2009…

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