Unlikely Locations: Enclosed Malls, Small Markets, and Civic Prestige David J. Roelfs University of Louisville

1. Unlikely Locations: Enclosed Malls, Small Markets, and Civic Prestige David J. Roelfs University of Louisville

2. Enclosed Mall Development: The Industry Perspective • Ring Analysis: the feasibility of a proposed shopping center depends on the population size, consumer purchasing power, degree of retail competition, and site availability within the center’s prospective market/trade area • On average, a sustainable mall will have 2.5 to 3.0 square feet GLA (gross leasable area) per capita • Typology of shopping centers • Neighborhood centers: 0 to 99,999 sq. ft. GLA (3K – 40K population) • Community centers: 100,000 to 299,999 sq. ft. GLA (40K – 150K population) • Regional centers: 300,000 to 749,999 sq. ft. GLA (150K – 300K population) • Super regional centers: 750,000+ sq. ft. GLA (300K or more population)

3. Enclosed Mall Development: The Organizational Perspective • Organizational Legitimacy: • the rate at which an organizational innovation spreads depends on the degree to which the viability of the innovation is taken for granted (constitutive or cognitive legitimacy) • Organizational Density: • there is a non-linear relationship between the number of adopters of an organizational innovation and the likelihood that further adoptions will take place • the non-linearity of this relationship reflects the oppositional effects of legitimacy and competition

4. Data and Methods • Statistical Method: Proportional Hazards (Cox) Regression for Repeated Events • Event: opening of a new mall or addition of an enclosed mall to an existing shopping center • Unit-of-analysis: county (proxy for the market area) • Setting: United States, including the District of Columbia, 1945-2009 • Focal Independent Variables • Population size and density • Per capita income and asset levels • Number of farms, manufacturers, wholesalers, service businesses • Number of retailers and retail sales • Number of existing malls and non-enclosed shopping centers • Shopping center legitimacy level • Control Variables • Geographic region • Land area • Racial, urban/rural, age, and educational composition • National GDP • Federal Reserve Prime Interest Rate

5. Results

19. County-level models, without fixed effects

33. County-level models, with fixed effects

47. Conclusions • Competition operates locally while symbiosis (including legitimacy) operates supra-locally

48. Conclusions • Competition operates locally while symbiosis (including legitimacy) operates supra-locally • Legitimacy trends have little impact at the local level mall development decision, though it has an important impact at the state level

49. Conclusions • Competition operates locally while symbiosis (including legitimacy) operates supra-locally • Legitimacy trends have little impact at the local level mall development decision, though it has an important impact at the state level • Evidence suggests that density does not simultaneously reflect the opposing forces of legitimacy and competition

50. Conclusions • Competition operates locally while symbiosis (including legitimacy) operates supra-locally • Legitimacy trends have little impact at the local level mall development decision, though it has an important impact at the state level • Evidence suggests that density does not simultaneously reflect the opposing forces of legitimacy and competition • The evidence suggests mall development is affected by factors other than economic rationality