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Advanced Forecasting & Procurement

Advanced Forecasting & Procurement. for Microsoft Dynamics NAV Presented to ABC Annual Conference 2011 May 12, 2011. Agenda. Return On Investment Forecasting Concepts Replenishment Concepts Putting It All Together Software Demonstration. The Squeeze Play. Domestic Vendors

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Advanced Forecasting & Procurement

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  1. Advanced Forecasting & Procurement for Microsoft Dynamics NAV Presented to ABC Annual Conference 2011 May 12, 2011

  2. Agenda • Return On Investment • Forecasting Concepts • Replenishment Concepts • Putting It All Together • Software Demonstration

  3. The Squeeze Play • Domestic Vendors • Vendor Pricing Models • Carry More Inventory to Earn Reduced Price Point • International Vendors • Long Lead Times • Container Level Purchasing • Drive Up Inventory • Economy • Line of Credit • Reduced Sales • Customers are Carrying Less Inventory

  4. Return On Investment • Reduce Inventory • $10M Inventory * 20% Reduction = $2M • $2M Inventory Reduction * 15% Carrying Cost = $300K • Reduce Demand on Line of Credit by $2M • Reduce Stock Outs/Lost Sales • Increase Sales • Increase Customer Service • Manage Stocking Levels

  5. Typical Pain Points • Forecast Accuracy • Customer Collaboration (Large Customers) • Promotions • Items You Can‘t Forecast • Stock? • Stocking Level? • New Items • Kit or Production Items • Component Demand • Managing Long Lead Times • Safety Stock Values • Branch Replenishment

  6. Forecasting & Replenishment Forecasting

  7. Forecasting & Replenishment Forecasting Historical Usage

  8. Forecasting & Replenishment Forecasting Historical Usage ADJ

  9. Forecasting & Replenishment Forecasting Historical Usage F O R E C A S T T O T A L F O R E C A S T ADJ Formulas

  10. Forecasting & Replenishment Forecasting Historical Usage F O R E C A S T T O T A L F O R E C A S T ADJ Formulas Adjustment at SKU level

  11. Forecasting & Replenishment Forecasting Historical Usage F O R E C A S T T O T A L F O R E C A S T ADJ Formulas Forecast Summary Adjustment at SKU level

  12. Forecasting & Replenishment Forecasting Historical Usage F O R E C A S T T O T A L F O R E C A S T ADJ Formulas Collaborative Forecast Forecast Summary Adjustment at SKU level

  13. Forecasting & Replenishment Forecasting Historical Usage F O R E C A S T T O T A L F O R E C A S T ADJ Formulas Collaborative Forecast Sales Promotions Forecast Summary Adjustment at SKU level

  14. Forecasting & Replenishment Forecasting Production & Kits 52 Period Forecast Historical Usage F O R E C A S T T O T A L F O R E C A S T ADJ Formulas Collaborative Forecast Sales Promotions Forecast Summary Adjustment at SKU level

  15. Forecasting & Replenishment Forecasting Production & Kits 52 Period Forecast Historical Usage F O R E C A S T T O T A L F O R E C A S T ADJ Replenishment Formulas 52 Period Forecast Collaborative Forecast Sales Promotions Forecast Summary Adjustment at SKU level

  16. Forecasting & Replenishment Forecasting Production & Kits 52 Period Forecast Historical Usage F O R E C A S T T O T A L F O R E C A S T ADJ Replenishment Formulas 52 Period Forecast Collaborative Forecast Sales Promotions Forecast Summary Adjustment at SKU level

  17. Forecasting & Replenishment Forecasting Production & Kits 52 Period Forecast Historical Usage F O R E C A S T T O T A L F O R E C A S T ADJ Replenishment Formulas Suggested Order 52 Period Forecast Expected Inventory Collaborative Forecast Sales Promotions Forecast Summary Adjustment at SKU level

  18. Forecasting & Replenishment Forecasting Production & Kits 52 Period Forecast Historical Usage F O R E C A S T T O T A L F O R E C A S T ADJ Replenishment Formulas Suggested Order 52 Period Forecast Expected Inventory Collaborative Forecast Lead Time Sales Promotions Vendor Targets Forecast Summary Adjustment at SKU level

  19. Forecasting & Replenishment Forecasting Production & Kits 52 Period Forecast Historical Usage F O R E C A S T T O T A L F O R E C A S T ADJ Replenishment Formulas Suggested Order 52 Period Forecast Expected Inventory Collaborative Forecast Lead Time Sales Promotions Vendor Targets Forecast Summary Surplus Inventory Adjustment at SKU level

  20. Forecasting & Replenishment Forecasting Production & Kits 52 Period Forecast Historical Usage F O R E C A S T T O T A L F O R E C A S T ADJ Replenishment Formulas Suggested Order 52 Period Forecast Expected Inventory Collaborative Forecast Lead Time Sales Promotions Vendor Targets Transfer Order Forecast Summary Surplus Inventory Adjustment at SKU level

  21. Forecasting & Replenishment Forecasting Production & Kits 52 Period Forecast Historical Usage F O R E C A S T T O T A L F O R E C A S T ADJ Replenishment Formulas Suggested Order Purchase Order 52 Period Forecast Expected Inventory Collaborative Forecast Lead Time Sales Promotions Vendor Targets Transfer Order Forecast Summary Surplus Inventory Adjustment at SKU level

  22. Forecasting Concepts Applied • Filtered Usage • Formula Based Forecasting (Best Fit Formula) • Customer Collaborative Forecasting • Combined Forecast

  23. Filtered Usage (Recurring Usage) • Sales to Customers or Consumption (Not Both) • Excluded from Usage (Marked on Sales Order) • Transfers to Warehouses (In Replenishment Path) • Adjustments • Automated Smoothing • Manual • Drop Shipment Usage (Optional via Setup)

  24. Best Fit Formula Formula A Formula B Median Error % Choose Best Formula Median Error % • Reforecast x Periods • Establish Error % • Establish Median Error % • Choose Formula With • Lowest Median Error %

  25. Forecast Adjust • Single SKU • Groups of SKUs • Promotions • Forecast Summary

  26. Promotions • Define Promotion • Items • Start and End Dates • Sales Quantity Projected for Promotion • After Promotion • Use Promotion Adjust • Remove Results of Promotion From History

  27. Forecast Summary • Roll Up Forecast at User Defined Levels • View Forecast • Cost • Price • Quantity • Make Change at Any Level • Distribute Changes to Lower Levels

  28. Collaborative Forecasting Historical Usage T O T A L F O R E C A S T Statistical Forecast Adjustments Promotions

  29. Collaborative Forecasting Historical Usage T O T A L F O R E C A S T Customer 123 Statistical Forecast Adjustments Promotions

  30. Collaborative Forecasting Historical Usage F O R E C A S T T O T A L F O R E C A S T Customer 123 Formulas Statistical Forecast Adjustments Promotions

  31. Collaborative Forecasting Historical Usage F O R E C A S T Collaborative Forecast T O T A L F O R E C A S T Customer 123 Formulas Statistical Forecast Adjustments Promotions

  32. Collaborative Forecasting Historical Usage F O R E C A S T Collaborative Forecast T O T A L F O R E C A S T Customer 123 Formulas Excel Statistical Forecast Adjustments Promotions Customer 123 Sales Representative

  33. Collaborative Forecasting Historical Usage F O R E C A S T Collaborative Forecast Customer Forecast T O T A L F O R E C A S T Customer 123 Formulas Excel Statistical Forecast Adjustments Promotions Customer 123 Sales Representative

  34. Distribution Requirements Planning (DRP) • DRP Looks at the Entire Company and Optimizes Inventory Across All Warehouses • Rolls Historical Usage Up Based on Replenishment Path • Forecast At Each Warehouse/Item • Compares Time Phased Inventory to Rolled Up Forecast • Manages • Vendor Replenishment • Hub and Spoke • Branch Replenishment • Inventory Balancing

  35. Replenishment Path – Hub and Spoke Vendor 1 Vendor 2 WH 1 WH 2 WH 3 WH 4 WH 5 WH 6 WH 7 WH 8 WH 9 Vendor Replenishment – Based on Lead Time Horizon Warehouse Replenishment – Based on Days Supply Example: WH 1, WH2 = Lead Time Horizon 90 Days WH 3 = Lead Time Horizon 30 Days WH 4, WH 5, WH6 = Min Days 14 Max Days 21 WH 9 – Min Days 10 Max Days 14 WH 7, WH 8 – Min Days 10 Max Days 14

  36. Inventory Balancing – Hub and Spoke Vendor 1 Vendor 2 Transfer 100 Transfer 100 WH 1 WH 2 WH 3 Transfer 50 WH 4 WH 5 WH 6 WH 7 WH 8 Example: WH 1 has Need of 250 WH 2 has Surplus of 100 WH 3 has Surplus of 100 WH 7 has Surplus of 75 WH 9

  37. Simulated Production Orders • Time Phased Expected Inventory for Each Increment • Calculate Need for Each Increment • Consolidate Need to Create Simulated Production Orders

  38. Replenishment Tools • Vendor Lead Time Calculation • Net Time Phased Expected Inventory • Vendor Buying Calendar • Vendor Review • Suggested Order • Purchasing Decision • Warehouse Transfer • Surplus Inventory • Purchase Order • Release Purchase Request • Posted Suggested Order • Save Criteria from Purchasing Decision • Branch Replenishment

  39. Vendor Lead Time • Vendor Lead Time by Item, Vendor, and Warehouse • User Defined Average Lead Time Calculation • Use Receipts from X Periods • Use X Receipts • Exclude Receipts • Greater than X Percent of Average • Less than X Percent of Average • Receipts that are Marked for Exclusion from Purchase Order • Frozen Lead Time • User Specified Frozen Lead Time by Item • Expire Date to Revert Back to Average Lead Time

  40. Net Time Phased Expected Inventory Additions to Inventory Inventory On Hand Quantity on Purchase Orders Quantity on Transfers In Quantity on Customer Returns Quantity on Planned Production Orders (Finished Goods) Subtractions from inventory Quantity on Sales Order Quantity on Transfers Out Quantity on Vendor Returns Quantity on Service Orders Quantity on Component Lines

  41. Replenishment • Decision 1 • Should I Replenish? • Decision 2 • How Much to Replenish? • Decision 3 • Do I have Surplus Inventory? • Decision 4 • Are there Vendor Targets?

  42. Replenishment • Decision 1 • Should I Replenish? • Min/Max (Fixed) • Min/Max Days Supply (Dynamic) • Target Stock Level (Dynamic) • Lead Time Horizon (Lead Time + Review Cycle + Safety Stock Days) (Dynamic) • Dynamic Order Point • Order Point (Dynamic) • (Ave. Daily Usage * Lead Time Days) + Safety Stock • Line Point (Dynamic) • Order Point + (Average Daily Usage * Review Cycle Days)

  43. Replenishment • Decision 2 (Used with Order Point & Line Point) • How Much to Replenish? • Economic Order Quantity • Modified Economic Order Quantity • Increase EOQ to Cover Forecast Usage

  44. Replenishment • Decision 3 • Do I have Surplus Inventory? • Decision to Buy from Vendor or Transfer Surplus Inventory

  45. Replenishment • Decision 4 • Are there Vendor Targets at the Order Level? • Amount • Net Weight • Gross Weight • Volume

  46. Result - The Suggested Order • Recommended Replenishment Quantities • Drill Down to all Information from Suggested Order Line • Detailed Forecast • Historical Usage Patterns • Formulas and Data that caused Recommended Replenishment • Surplus Inventory and Where • Time Phased Expected Inventory • Order Statistics • Comparison to Vendor Targets

  47. Branch Replenishment • Clearly Defined Replenishment Path • When I Need Inventory Where Do I Get It? • Top Level Buy is for Lead Time + Safety Stock • Branch Replenishment is Based on Replenishment Cycle to Branch • Set Branch to Maintain X Day’s Supply • Benefits • Reduction of Safety Stock in Supply Chain • Inventory is Distributed to Where it is Needed

  48. Forecasting & Replenishment Forecasting Production & Kits 52 Period Forecast Historical Usage F O R E C A S T T O T A L F O R E C A S T ADJ Replenishment Formulas Suggested Order Purchase Order 52 Period Forecast Expected Inventory Collaborative Forecast Lead Time Sales Promotions Vendor Targets Transfer Order Forecast Summary Surplus Inventory Adjustment at SKU level

  49. Summary • Clean Historical Usage • Best Fit Formula Selection • Collaborative Forecast for Large Customers • Flexible Forecast Adjustment • Promotions • Look Ahead to Purchase for Promotion • Keep History Without Promotion Influence • Good Replenishment Tools • Time Phased Expected Inventory • Good Vendor Lead Time Management • Dynamic Replenishment Calculations • Surplus and Excess Inventory Calculations • Consider Transfer Instead of Buying

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