Central Pacific Hurricane Center

1. Central Pacific Hurricane Center Seasonal Forecast for 2010 Central Pacific Hurricane Season and Recap of 2009 Season Jim Weyman Director, Central Pacific Hurricane Center Phone: Office: 793-5272 Office: 271-6238 May 19, 2010

2. Central Pacific Tropical Cyclone Season • Season: June 1 to November 30 • Central Pacific Average per Year • 1.5 Hurricanes • 1.3 Tropical Storms • 1.6 Tropical Depressions • 4.4 Tropical Cyclones • 1971 to 2009: 170 Tropical cyclones • 37% Hurricanes • 29% Tropical Storms • 34% Tropical Depressions

3. Hurricane Climatology for Central Pacific (1971 through 2009) Type H TS TD Total Totals 63 49 58 170 Avg/YR 1.5 1.3 1.6 4.4 Percent 37 29 34 Total by Month of Year (1971 – 2009) J F M A M J J A S O N D Total 2 0 1 1 0 1 42 66 36 17 3 1 170 1 0 <1 <1 0 <1 25 39 21 10 2 <1 Hurricane: Cat 1 -21 Cat 2 – 9 Cat 3 – 12 Cat 4 -8 Cat 5 - 4

6. Central Pacific 2009 Hurricane Season • Seven tropical cyclones occurred • Greater than the long-term average of 4 to 5 • Three hurricanes, one of them major • Three tropical storms • One tropical depression • Three formed in basin, four moved in from east • Six of the cyclones occurred in very late July and in August, with the other in October • No fatalities or significant damages

7. 2009 Hurricane Season Summary Tropical Storm Lana Hurricane Felicia Tropical Storm Maka Hurricane Guillermo Tropical Storm Hilda Tropical Depression Two-C Hurricane Neki July 31 – August 4 August 8 – August 11 August 10 – August 12 August 16 – August 19 August 23 – August 28 August 29 – August 30 October 18 – October 26

8. Hurricane Guillermo 16-19 August 2009 Central Pacific Tropical Cyclones Major Hurricane Neki 18-26 October Tropical Depression Two-C 28-29 August Tropical Storm Hilda 23-27 August Hurricane Felicia 8-11 August Tropical Storm Maka 10-12 August Tropical Storm Lana 30 July – 3 August West Pacific Central Pacific East Pacific

9. Felicia Highlights • Extensive public and media attention • Air Force C-130s and NOAA G-IV tasked • Tropical storm watches issued for portions of Hawaii, but no tropical storm warnings • Wind speed/intensity probabilities used • Remnants produced heavy rains and some flooding in Hawaii • 3 to 6 inches widespread across several islands • Maximum rainfall near 14 inches on Kauai and Oahu • Flash floods on Oahu

11. Hurricane Neki Highlights • Peak intensity 105 knots (category 3) • Only major hurricane in in 2009 • Hurricane watch for Johnston Island • Hurricane watches and warnings for portions of Northwestern Hawaiian Islands • Evacuations via NOAA ship and Coast Guard C-130 • Impacted the area as a strong tropical storm • No impacts in main Hawaiian Islands

13. El Nino Update • A Rapid Transition from El Nino to Neutral During April and May 2010 • Some Models Forecast Weak La Niña Conditions by Summer (Pacific Oceans waters near the equator colder than normal) • Some Models forecast Continued Neutral Conditions (Water temperature near normal)

14. 2010 Central Pacific Tropical Cyclone Outlook Based on two climate factors • Ongoing low-activity era in Central Pacific • Partly reflects fewer Eastern Pacific hurricanes moving into the region. • Expectation of either ENSO-neutral or La Niña conditions in equatorial Pacific • Neither of which favors tropical cyclone activity in Central Pacific. • Factors have historically produced below normal seasons

15. 2010 Central Pacific Tropical Cyclone Outlook • 70% chance of a below normal season • Forecast 2-3 tropical cyclone systems • 25% chance of a near normal season • Forecast 4-5 tropical cyclone systems • 5% chance of an above normal season • Forecast of 6 or more systems