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National Weather Service Weather Forecast Office Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu, Hawaii

National Weather Service Weather Forecast Office Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu, Hawaii. Raymond Tanabe Warning Coordination Meteorologist. Tropical Cyclones - Hurricane Iniki, Sep 11, 1992. 4 to 5 tropical cyclones (TD, TS, Hcn ) annually in the Central Pacific

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National Weather Service Weather Forecast Office Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu, Hawaii

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  1. National Weather Service Weather Forecast Office Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu, Hawaii Raymond Tanabe Warning Coordination Meteorologist

  2. Tropical Cyclones - Hurricane Iniki, Sep 11, 1992 • 4 to 5 tropical cyclones (TD, TS, Hcn) annually in the Central Pacific • Direct hits rare…but devastating • 3 in last 50 years • Dot (1959), Iwa (1982), Iniki (1992)

  3. Terminology • Tropical Cyclone: Generic term. Includes Tropical Depressions, Tropical Storms, and Hurricanes. • Tropical Depression: Winds of 38 mph or less. Assigned a number (e.g., TD-01C) • Tropical Storm: Winds of 39 to 73 mph. Assigned a name. • Hurricane: Winds of 74 mph or higher. Five Categories. Category 5 >155mph

  4. Central Pacific Tropical Cyclone Season • Season: June 1 to November 30 • Tropical Cyclones can occur in any month • Central Pacific Average per Year • 4-5 Tropical Cyclones • 1971 to 2009: 170 Tropical Cyclones • 37% Hurricanes, 29% Tropical Storms, 34% Tropical Depressions

  5. Central Pacific Hurricanes 40-Year Track History

  6. 2009 Central Pacific Hurricane Season • Seven tropical cyclones occurred • Greater than the long-term average of 4 to 5 • Three hurricanes, one of them major • Three tropical storms • One tropical depression • Three formed in basin, four moved in from east • Six of the cyclones occurred in very late July and in August, with the other in October • No fatalities or significant damages

  7. Hurricane Guillermo 16-19 August 2009 Central Pacific Tropical Cyclones Major Hurricane Neki 18-26 October Tropical Depression Two-C 28-29 August Tropical Storm Hilda 23-27 August Hurricane Felicia 8-11 August Tropical Storm Maka 10-12 August Tropical Storm Lana 30 July – 3 August West Pacific Central Pacific East Pacific

  8. Recipe for Tropical Cyclones • Sea Surface Temperatures • 80°F (26.5°C) over a large area • Weak Vertical Wind Shear • Low Level Disturbance • Region of upper level divergence/outflow

  9. Sea-Surface Temperature Climatology

  10. Recipe for Tropical Cyclones • Sea Surface Temperatures • 80°F (26.5°C) over a large area • Weak Vertical Wind Shear • Low Level Disturbance • Region of upper level divergence/outflow

  11. Effect of Vertical Wind Shear 40,000 ft/200 mb H H Typical cruising altitude of commercial airplane Heat Heat 5,000 ft/850 mb L L Surface

  12. Recipe for Tropical Cyclones • Sea Surface Temperatures • 80°F (26.5°C) over a large area • Weak Vertical Wind Shear • Low Level Disturbance • Region of upper level divergence/outflow

  13. Recipe for Tropical Cyclones • Sea Surface Temperatures • 80°F (26.5°C) over a large area • Weak Vertical Wind Shear • Low Level Disturbance • Region of upper level divergence/outflow

  14. Divergence = Exhaust

  15. Tropical Cyclone Impacts • Extreme wind conditions Iniki: wind gusts greater that 150 mph Iwa: wind gusts greater that 120 mph • Flash Flooding Iniki: 8 to 10 inches over short time frame TD 1-C: 14+ inches upslope of Hilo • Storm Surge, High surf Iniki: 30 to 35 ft surf on Kauai, high water marks up to 25 ft, 3 to 4 ft storm surge Estelle: 10 to 20 ft surf even though closest passage was 120 nm south of Big Island.

  16. Central Pacific Hurricane CenterText Products • Tropical Weather Outlook • Tropical Cyclone Discussion • Tropical Cyclone Forecast/Advisory • Tropical Cyclone Public Advisory • Tropical Cyclone Local Statements

  17. Central Pacific Hurricane CenterTropical Weather Outlook • Issued 4 times daily during hurricane season – June 1 through November 30 • 2 AM, 8 AM, 2 PM, 8 PM HST • The Tropical Weather Outlook provides a summary of possible or anticipated tropical cyclone development and other areas of interest • Can give you several days “heads up” before a tropical cyclone actually develops

  18. Central Pacific Hurricane CenterTropical Weather Outlook TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI 1000 AM HST FRI MAY 11 2007 FOR THE CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC...BETWEEN 140W AND 180 A LARGE AREA OF DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS ABOUT 1000 MILES EAST SOUTHEAST OF HILO...HAWAII. DEVELOPMENT...IF ANY...WILL BE SLOW TO OCCUR. ELSEWHERE...NO TROPICAL CYCLONES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING.

  19. Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook • Graphical companion to text product • Will include a three-tiered, color-coded, categorical genesis forecast for the next 48 hours • Low: Probability of genesis less than 30% • Medium: Probability of genesis 30-50% • High: Probability of genesis greater than 50%

  20. Tropical Cyclone Products • Once a tropical cyclone develops or moves into the Central North Pacific, Tropical Discussions, Public Advisories, and Forecast/Advisories are issued at regularly scheduled times • 5 AM, 11 AM, 5 PM, 11 PM • For storms that are expected to remain over water and not affect any land areas, these three are the only products issued • For tropical cyclone that are expected to impact land areas, position estimates, intermediate advisories, and local statements are also issued.

  21. Central Pacific Hurricane CenterTropical Cyclone Discussion • Explain the forecaster’s reasoning behind the analysis and forecast of the tropical cyclone • Assess confidence or uncertainty • Reason for change in track or intensity forecast • Plans for watches and warnings

  22. Central Pacific Hurricane CenterTropical Cyclone Discussion OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS...TWO-C HAS STARTED TO SHOW SIGNS OF BETTER ORGANIZATION . WIND RADII WERE ALSO EXPANDED PRIMARILY THROUGH 36 HOURS IN RESPONSE TO THE INCREASED IN INTENSITY AND QUIKSCAT DATA. THE FORECAST TRACK OF TWO-C HAS BEEN ADJUSTED SOUTHWARD OR TO THE LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK... THE FORECAST INTENSITY WAS INCREASED THROUGH 36 HOURS IN RESPONSE TO THE INCREASE IN INITIAL INTENSITY. ITS PROJECTED PATH KEEPS TWO-C OVER WATER AND AWAY FROM ANY MAJOR PACIFIC ISLANDS. THE SOUTHWARD ADJUSTMENT OF THE FORECAST TRACK AFTER 36 HOURS ALSO PLACES TWO-C FURTHER AWAY FROM JOHNSTON ISLAND.

  23. Central Pacific Hurricane CenterForecast /Advisory • Short Term Section (days 1-3) • Current position and movement • Forecast center positions • Maximum wind speed and gusts in knots • 34, 50, and 64 knot wind speed radii • Extended Outlook Section (days 4-5) • Forecast center positions • Maximum wind speed in knots

  24. Central Pacific Hurricane CenterForecast / Advisory HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.5N 160.9W AT 09/2100Z. POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM. PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 10 DEGREES AT 22 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 935 MB. EYE DIAMETER 10 NM. MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 125 KT WITH GUSTS TO 150 KT. 64 KT....... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW 50 KT....... 75NE 75SE 75SW 75NW 34 KT........200NE 200SE 200SW 200NW 12 FT SEAS..200NE 200SE 200SW 200NW ALL QUADRANT RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES

  25. Central Pacific Hurricane CenterPublic Advisory • Watches or warnings in effect • Highlights most significant conditions • Reference to local statements from Civil Defense and NWS • Location, movement, and intensity of tropical cyclone • Intermediate Advisories • Issued at 2 or 3 hour intervals when a tropical cyclone affects or is forecast to affect an island • Special advisories • Issued anytime significant changes occur • Cancellation of a Hurricane/Tropical storm Watch or Warning • Classification of tropical cyclone changes • A tornado threat develops

  26. Central Pacific Hurricane CenterPublic Advisory AT 5 PM HST...0300Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION GUILLERMO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 142.3 WEST OR ABOUT 875 MILES EAST SOUTHEAST OF HILO HAWAII. THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 20 MPH AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 30 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS...MAINLY THE NORTHERN SIDE OF THE DEPRESSION. THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

  27. Hurricane Local Statements • Specific details for county area • Watches and/or warnings in effect • Hurricane/Tropical Storm location, movement, and intensity • Significant details – wind, surf, rain and flood potential, tornado potential • Civil Defense evacuation orders • Precautions necessary to protect life and property • Frequent releases – every 2 or 3 hours, more often if necessary

  28. Hurricane Local Statements HURRICANE FLOSSIE LOCAL STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI 1200 AM HST TUE AUG 14 2007 ...AREAS AFFECTED... ...WATCHES WARNINGS... ....STORM INFORMATION... ...PRECAUTIONARY ACTIONS... ...HIGH SURF AND TIDE IMPACTS... ...WIND IMPACTS... ...FLOODING IMPACTS... ...NEXT UPDATE...

  29. Central Pacific Hurricane Center Watches and Warnings Hurricane/Tropical Storm Watch • Hurricane/Tropical Storm conditions are possible within 48* hours. Hurricane/Tropical Storm Warning • Hurricane/Tropical Storm conditions are expected within 36* hours

  30. www.weather.gov/hawaii

  31. Emergency Plans • Continuity of Operations • Emergency Kits • Individuals/Families – 7 days • Businesses • Gather information about hazards • Meet with your Company/family to create/review plans

  32. 2010 Hurricane Season Outlooks • Central Pacific outlook on May 19 • Atlantic and Eastern Pacific on May 20 • Have to prepare same way regardless of outlook

  33. Questions? National Weather Service 2525 Correa Road Suite 250 Honolulu, HI 96822-2219 973-5280 raymond.tanabe@noaa.gov 271-6267 www.weather.gov/hawaii

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