Stan Wilson NOAA Satellite & Information Service On behalf of the CEOS OSVW & OST Constellations

1. Use of SatelliteScatterometer-Wind & Altimeter-Wave Observations for Operational Forecasting in Southern Hemisphere GMDSS MetAreas Stan Wilson NOAA Satellite & Information Service On behalf of the CEOS OSVW & OST Constellations JCOMM-III, Marrakech, 9 November 2009

2. kts NASA’s QuikSCAT has given us an increased awareness of the pervasiveness of extra-tropical Hurricane Force Winds Intense, non-tropical cyclone with hurricane-force winds Feb 23, 2008, North Pacific Courtesy of Joe Sienkiewicz, NOAA/NWS/OPC

3. Hurricane-Force Extratropical Cyclones Trend in Detections & Warnings using QuikSCAT Improved Wind Algorithm and Rain Flag Oct 06 WARNING CATEGORIES Pre-Q’SCAT 1. GALE 34-47 kt 2. STORM >48 Q’SCAT ERA 1. GALE 34-47 kt 2. STORM 48-63 kt 3. HURCN FORCE > 64 kt 12.5 km QuikSCAT Available May 04 25 km QuikSCAT Available in N-AWIPS Oct 01 Hurricane Force Wind Warning Initiated Dec 00 244 235 QuikSCAT Launch Jun 99 Courtesy of Joe Sienkiewicz, NOAA/NWS/OPC

4. Hurricane-Force Winds in Extratropical Storms – 2001-2008 • Much more frequent than thought • Detection linked to algorithm & resolution improvements and forecaster experience • Can predict where and when they will occur with appreciable skill at 48 hrs…but limited at 96 hrs • Intensity forecast skill still underestimates development rates for most intense storms and will under predict their winds • Maximum strength of winds is still unknown Courtesy of Joe Sienkiewicz, NOAA/NWS/OPC

5. Major Shipping Routes North Pacific 6,000/yr container 1,500/yr bulk transits Geographic distribution of cyclones with winds of HF intensity Sep-May 2000-2007 7-yr annual average number of extratropical cyclones observed (contoured) with hurricane force winds for the years 2001 - 2008 Courtesy of Joe Sienkiewicz, NOAA/NWS/OPC

6. Major Shipping Routes North Atlantic 4,000/yr container 1,000/yr bulk transits Geographic distribution of cyclones with winds of HF intensity Sep-May 2000-2007 7 yr annual average number of extratropical cyclones observed (contoured) with hurricane force winds for the years 2001 - 2008 Courtesy of Joe Sienkiewicz, NOAA/NWS/OPC

7. Along-track Wave Number Spectra QuikSCAT Thick Solid Line 1000 km NCEP Thin Solid Line ECMWF Thin Dashed Line Surface wind fields are poorly resolved in NCEP & ECMWF surface analyses over the open ocean on all scales ≤ ~1000 km, even though both assimilate QuikSCAT. From Chelton et al. , 2006, Mon. Wea. Review

8. Scatterometers • Scatterometers in Orbit • U.S. (NASA) QuikSCAT – nearing end of life (≤ 6 mos) • EUMETSAT MetOp/ASCAT – continuing, operational

9. Observations of Hurricane Force WindsOct 2007 – Aug 2008 195 168 38 2 15 4 Courtesy of Khalil Ahmad, NOAA/NWS/OPC

10. QuikSCAT + ASCATCombined Coverage (low-moderate winds)

11. QuikSCAT + ASCATCombined Coverage (high winds)

12. Scatterometers • Scatterometers in Orbit • U.S. (NASA) QuikSCAT – nearing end of life (≤ 6 mos) • EUMETSAT MetOp/ASCAT – continuing, operational • India (ISRO) Oceansat-2 – just launched

13. Launched Sept 23 Day 285 ~ Oct 12

14. Launched Sept 23 Day 285 ~ Oct 12

15. Scatterometers • Scatterometers in Orbit • U.S. (NASA) QuikSCAT – nearing end of life (≤ 6 mos) • EUMETSAT MetOp/ASCAT – continuing, operational • India (ISRO) Oceansat-2 – just launched • Scatterometers in Development • China (SOA) HY-2 series – early 2011 • Russia (Roshydromet/Roscosmos) Meteor-M#3 – 2012 • China (SOA)/France (CNES) – CFOSat – 2013/14

16. Mean Revisit Time versus Latitude and Combinations of Scatterometers 6-Hour Revisit

17. Committee on Earth Observation Satellites (CEOS) • Planning the space arm of Global Earth Observation System of Systems • Has 29 space agency & 19 associate members • Introduced the concept of Virtual Constellations • Timely access to data for the public good • Inter-calibration between missions • Common data products and formats • Operational utilization of data products • Development of improved products • Harmonize orbits to optimize coverage • Serve as focus for GCOS Essential Climate Variables

18. WMO Executive Council June 2008 • Requested that efforts be made…to ensure that… ocean surface meteorological observations be routinely collected and disseminated via the GTS… • Requested…participation of space agencies in that scheme. • Recognized that severe coastal inundation events from extreme sea state conditions occurred in many parts of the world…where coastal and ocean surface meteorological observations were…limited or absent. • Requested JCOMM...to address this issue as a matter of priority.

19. Approach • Two of the most easily understood products relating to the ocean surface derived from satellite observations are: • Surface Vector Winds (SVW) from scatterometers • Significant Wave Height (SWH) from altimeters • Two of the most important products required by a marine forecaster for a surface analysis are: • SVW – wind speed and direction • SWH – or sea state • Therefore, when engaging with users, include consideration of SWH along with SVW

20. Altimeters • Altimeters in Orbit • France (CNES)/U.S. (NASA) Jason-1 & Jason-2 • Europe (ESA) ENVISAT • Altimeters in Development • Europe (ESA) Cryosat-2 – early 2010 • India (ISRO)/France (CNES) SARAL – 2010 • China (SOA) HY-2 – early 2011 • Europe (ESA) Sentinel-3A – 2013 – 1st of two • Europe (EUMETSAT)/U.S. (NOAA) Jason-3 – 2013 • U.S. (Navy) GFO-2 – 2013

21. User Community Engagement • Promote the use of scatterometer-derived SVW and altimeter-derived SWH in operational marine forecasts world-wide for the protection of life and property at sea • Focus initially on GMDSS MetAreas in the Southern Hemisphere • Assess whether responsible forecast centers have timely access to, and routinely use, SVW and SWH • Depending on what is learned, proceed accordingly…

22. Global Maritime Distress and Safety System

24. Comments on Some Present High Seas Forecasting • Operational centers in these countries base their high seas forecasts on model output as follows: • Chile – uses FNMOC • Argentina – uses NCEP or ECMWF • South Africa – uses UK Met Office • But recall that present operational analyses do not capture the spatial variability of the wind field ≤1000 k and they significantly under-report the speed of hurricane-force winds

25. We have been observing SVW and SWH for well over a decade…Why such low operational use? • Unaware of the capabilities 5 different satellites • Unable to access the GTS • Unable to decode BUFR files on GTS & each is different • Must sort through files on the GTS that have little correspondence to areas of interest • Must write a proposal to get ftp access • Must go to 5 different ftp sites, each with different format • Don’t know when products become available on each • Difficult to integrate OSVW & SWH products into analyses • Forecasters don’t know how to use the products

26. Issues for the Satellite Providers • Data policy to enable timely operational access • Each country needs to be willing to share data in a timely manner for the public good • If access is provided separately for each satellite • GTS – separate BUFR decoder for each • FTP – document procedures for each • Each new source requires a new linkage to all users • But if there were a single point of access – ‘one-stop shopping’ – for each variable • Only one set of procedures is needed for the user • A common operational product could be available in a single self-describing, hardware-independent format • Products could be packaged specific to each area of interest to offer a very low data rate • Each new source could be easily incorporated into service

27. Issues for Users • Initial Training Course • To develop an initial course based on direct and immediate feedback from operational users • To focus on accessing and using SVW and SWH in operational analyses and forecasts • To include – for each country – an operational forecaster and (where possible) a research user of SVW and SWH • Subsequent Courses • Once the curriculum has been tested in the initial course, to be given in the developing countries where student participation can be maximized • To be organized in close collaboration with JCOMM, WMO, IOC and the operational forecast services • To evolve in response to growing forecaster familiarity with operational use of SVW and SWH products

28. Use of Satellite Wind and Wave Products in Marine Forecasting • A initial training course focused on the use of scatterometer-derived surface vector winds and altimeter-derived significant wave heights in operational forecasting for the high seas • Co-led by NOAA & EUMETSAT in collaboration with and hosted by the IOC Project Office for IODE in Oostend, Belgium – December 14-18, 2009 • For information on the course as it develops: http://hosting1.iode.org/moodle/mod/resource/view.php?id=565

29. Instructors Julia Figa Henk Verschuur Stefane Nirola Ad Stoffelen Mark Schwarz Gunnar Noer Joe Sienkiewicz Rick Knabb Paul Chang Zorana Jelenak Doug Vandemark • Europe – EUMETSAT • Met. Operations……………….. • User Services……………………. • France – MeteoFrance……………. • Netherlands – KNMI………………. • New Zealand Met. Service………. • Norway – MetNo…………………….. • U.S.A. – NOAA • Ocean Prediction Center…... • Cen. Pacific Hurricane Ctr… • Satellite & Info. Service…….. • U.S.A. – U. of New Hampshire….

30. Students Deborah Souto Martin Saraceno Silvia Regina Rosio Camayo Gonzalo Espinosa Luis Vidal Andres Sepulveda Amit Singh A.K. Sharma Raj Kumar Ganessen Virasami Mamad Beebeejaun Carlton Fillis Jacqueline Riet • Argentina – SMN……………………. • Argentina – UBA…………………….. • Brazil – SMM………………………….. • Brazil – INPE………………………….. • Chile – SMA…………………………….. • Chile – UdeC…………………………… • Fiji Met Service………………………. • India Met. Dept………………………. • India Space Research Org……… • Mauritius Met. Service…………… • So. African Weather Service……

31. Initial Performance Metrics – How will we measure success? All Southern Hemisphere centers with responsibility for operational forecasts for GMDSS MetAreas will routinely utilize SVW from all current scatterometers and SWH from all current altimeters in marine analyses and forecasts – i.e., all boxes in the matrix will be colored green.