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ERCOT

ERCOT. COPS Round 2 Sample Design Review April 10, 2007. Overview. Reference to PUCT Rule 25.131 Section C Background information Sample design overview Class level dollars by sample cells Precision versus sample size Sample allocation optimization Additional Round 2 considerations

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ERCOT

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  1. ERCOT COPS Round 2 Sample Design Review April 10, 2007

  2. Overview • Reference to PUCT Rule 25.131 Section C • Background information • Sample design overview • Class level dollars by sample cells • Precision versus sample size • Sample allocation optimization • Additional Round 2 considerations • Final Design and Round 1 sample point retention

  3. PUC Rule§25.131, Load Profiling and Load Research • Assigns responsibility for load research sample design to ERCOT • Determine study objectives • Define population • Determine accuracy level • Select sampling technique • Assigns data collection responsibility to TDSPs • If a TDSP has a separate load research sample, ERCOT shall coordinate sample designs • ERCOT shall consult with TDSPs on load research data transfer process

  4. PUC Rule§25.131, Load Profiling and Load Research Section (C): Load research responsibility. Each TDU shall perform load research to support ERCOT’s load profiling activities, as directed by ERCOT. • ERCOT shall be responsible for load research sample design and sample point selection for ERCOT-directed load profiling and load research samples. ERCOT shall coordinate with each TDU to optimize load research programs of both ERCOT and the TDU. The same samples shall be used to support both the TDU’s load research activities and ERCOT’s load profile research needs whenever reasonably possible. Each TDU shall coordinate with ERCOT to synchronize its load research cycles and sample replacement with those of ERCOT. • ERCOT, in consultation with the TDUs, shall specify the manner of data collection for ERCOT load profile research samples and the means and frequency of transmission of such information to ERCOT. Each TDU shall adhere to the specifications for data collection and transmission specified by ERCOT. • A TDU may recover its reasonably and necessary costs incurred in performing load profile research as required by this section. • This section shall not be interpreted to require a TDU to redeploy any existing samples that were deployed less than five years before the effective date of this section, although this section shall also not be interpreted as addressing the appropriateness of continued deployment of existing TDU samples apart from the ERCOT request to do so. Notwithstanding the foregoing, the TDU shall deploy additional samples as requested by ERCOT in order to support ERCOT’s load profiling activities.

  5. Background Information • For Round 1 of the LRS sample design ERCOT offered to coordinate our sample designs with all of the TDSPs • TXU-ED was interested in coordination • ERCOT incorporated their sample into ours • ERCOT and TXU have already agreed to do this again for Round 2 • ERCOT presented an initial LRS precision analysis and sample design options for Round 2 at the June 28, 2006 PWG meeting • Extensive discussion with Market participants took place • ERCOT presented an updated LRS precision analysis at the February 27, 2007 PWG meeting. • AEP suggested that ERCOT perform analysis to determine if the recommended separate primary voltage samples were necessary • ERCOT had a follow-up meeting with Kathy Scott on March 5 to discuss TDSP concerns related to the recommended complete sample replacement for Round 2 • Based on TDSP input, ERCOT revisited the Round 2 sample design for the March 27, 2007 PWG meeting. • ERCOT incorporated retention of some Round 1 sample points for Round 2 • ERCOT reduced Round 2 requirement for Primary Voltage Sample Points

  6. Round 1 Sample High Level Design • Round 1 Sample was designed and selected mid-2004 • Approximately half-sized samples were selected to facilitate load research start-up process • The need to increase sample sizes in subsequent rounds was expected and communicated to the market during Round 1 planning • Population was defined with 48 Sample Cells (one for each of the Profile Type / Weather Zone Combinations) • High level sample design process consists of determining total sample size and allocating sample points to each cell

  7. Sample Design Overview Round 1 Sample Analysis Round 2 High Level Sample Design • Round 1 Sample Size • Interval Mean kWh • Interval Precision • ESIID • Profile Assignment • Usage Lodestar • Total Sample Size • Allocation To Sample Cells • Expected Precision Round 2 Detail Sample Design • Stratum Boundaries • Stratum Allocation TDSP Sample ListsSelected Sample Points Alternate Sample Points Round 2 Sample Selection

  8. Dollars by Profile Type 33.4% 26.3% 16.3% 12.4% 9.8% 1.6% • Dollars = Σ (MWh * MCPE) • Is accuracy more important for RESLOWR (33.4% of Dollars) than for BUSNODEM (1.6% of Dollars)?

  9. Sample Cell Dollars • Cells shown in descending order by dollars • Top 5 cells account for 54% of the dollars • Bottom 28 cells account for only 10% of the dollars • Bottom 10 cells account for 1% of the dollars

  10. Precision vs Sample Size • Precision improvement varies across sample cells and across intervals • Increasing sample size has a diminishing return on precision improvement • Thus the impact over a year of adding sample points varies by sample cells Illustration of the relationship between precision and sample size for a median interval by Profile Type

  11. Sample Allocation Optimization • Minimum Sample Size • For Round 1 analysis, profile migration caused numerous issues due to small sample sizes in some cells • For Round 2 minimum sample size per sample cell will be 120 • Maximum Sample Size • Maximum set to avoid excessive sampling in a few sample cells • Maximum for Business sample cells set to 400 • Maximum for Residential sample cells set to 600 • Optimization method: Iteratively allocate increments of 20 sample points to a selected sample cell • At each step, allocate points to produce the most improvement in reducing dollar estimation error • Where, dollar estimation error = (Precision × Dollars) summed across all intervals • The allocations are based on both • The Dollars associated with each of the sample cell in each interval, and • The precision improvement that would be realized by adding 20 sample points, and the diminishing return on that improvement

  12. Examples of Iterative Allocation at Selected Sample Sizes Reducing Dollar estimation error (Precision × Dollars) summed across all intervals

  13. Round 1 Non - Optimized Allocation of points Min sample size Round 2 Optimized Allocation of Additional Points Annualized Dollar Error Reduction Based on Sample Size Increases

  14. Oil and Gas Sample Treatment • Lists of known Oil and Gas ESIIDs were provided by TDSPs • These ESIIDs will be excluded from the population and sample for Round 2 • Many are expected to migrate to BUSOGFLT beginning in September 2007 • For Round 2 analysis, sample estimates will be adjusted to account for known Oil and Gas ESIIDs which have not migrated at that time

  15. Primary Voltage Sample Review • ERCOT followed up on AEP suggestions • Four Business sample cells have a significant saturation of primary voltage ESIIDs/energy • These cells will have a separate primary voltage stratum added to their sample design with 40 additional sample points allocated to that stratum • For all other cells, primary voltage ESIIDs will be grouped with secondary voltage ESIIDs

  16. Round 2 Sample Final Round 2 High Level Design • Total sample size 9,160

  17. Round 1 Sample Point Retention • Round 1 sample points will be retained if they have the same profile assignment as when initially selected … lists have been distributed • Round 1 primary voltage sample points are not eligible for retention because of sample point weighting issues • Non-retained sample points may be selected for the Round 2 sample • TDSPs should consider waiting until Round 2 sample list is provided to start recorder removal

  18. Next Steps • ERCOT will complete detail sample design • Stratification within sample cells • Allocation of sample points to strata within sample cells • Sample lists will be provided to TDSPs prior to the April PWG meeting • PWG will discuss installation timelines for the new IDR installs and other issues related to Round 2 • PWG will work on LPG Section 15 to reflect PUCT Rule and procedures being adopted to conduct load research in the ERCOT market

  19. Questions

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