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Mitigating and Responding to Climate Change in Iowa Jerry Schnoor

Mitigating and Responding to Climate Change in Iowa Jerry Schnoor Dept of Civil & Environmental Engineering Center Global & Regional Environ Research. IA Air and Waste Management Association Little Amana November 18, 2008. Outline of the talk. Science of Climate Change

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Mitigating and Responding to Climate Change in Iowa Jerry Schnoor

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  1. Mitigating and Responding to Climate Change in Iowa Jerry Schnoor Dept of Civil & Environmental Engineering Center Global & Regional Environ Research IA Air and Waste Management Association Little Amana November 18, 2008

  2. Outline of the talk Science of Climate Change Natural vs. human causes Iowa Climate Change Advisory Council policy options What can we (Iowans) do? Organic Carbon Stored in Iowa Soils

  3. Past glacial periods were likely produced by a change in earth’s orbit and the angle of its axis w.r.t. the sun…

  4. Earth’s history provides most important information on global warming. Recorded human history occurs within the Holocene warm period.

  5. The Fossil Fuel Age: burning millions of years of stored carbon Slide courtesy of James Hansen, NASA GISS

  6. CO2,CH4 and estimated global temperature (Antarctic ΔT/2 in ice core era) 0 = 1880-1899 mean. Source: Hansen, Clim. Change, 68, 269, 2005. Current GHGs are unprece-dented for over 600 K years

  7. We know these gases are caused by humans due to multiple lines of evidence Carbon dioxide began to rise at the beginning of the industrial revolution The amount accumulating in the atmosphere can be accounted for by human CO2 emissions • The dynamics can only be explained only by mixing from human sources • Lines of evidence: 1. The timing is right 2. The amount is right 3. The dynamics are right

  8. But could the warming we are experiencing be due to poorly understood natural variations? To be sure, we do not understand all there is to know about earth’s climate. There is uncertainty in every measurement and estimate. But we know reasonably well the major factors that influence climate over geologic time. And whatever natural warming may be occurring is only exacerbated by human GHG emissions.

  9. Climate Change – 0.8 C warmer in the past 130 yrs

  10. We know the temperature increase has been (mostly) caused by humans from multiple lines of evidence: 1. CO2 is a greenhouse gas; it absorbs back-radiation from the earth 2. The amount of energy that GHG’s absorb is sufficient to explain the warming of the earth in recent decades when coupled with natural climatic variations like sunspot activity and volcanic eruptions 3. Several other records are in keeping with earth’s warming from a human source • Ocean temperatures • Sea level rise • Sea ice melting and ice shelf break-up • Glacier and permafrost melting

  11. GCM models agree on future warming (IPCC) Models agree on + (2.0-4.5) oC (3.6-8.1 oF) w/in 100 yrs in IPCC 4th Assessment (2007) Best estimate is 3 oC warmer (5.4 oF) by 2100 0.6 oC (1.1 oF )more warming is inevitable, but if we act within 10 years or so, we can stop dangerous climate interference (Hansen et al., 2006) 650 ppm CO2 Dangerous: >500 ppm CO2 despite 60-70% emissions cut 385 ppm CO2

  12. Metrics for “Dangerous” Change – 2 oC warming Ice Sheet Disintegration: Global Sea LevelRise Regional Climate Disruptions 1. Increase of Extreme Events (floods, droughts) 2. Changing Precipitation Patterns/Freshwater Shortages Loss of Animal & Plant Species

  13. Arctic Change: Future loss of Arctic sea ice could result in a loss of 2/3 of the world's polar bears within 50 years. Source: U.S. Geological Surveywww.usgs.gov/newsroom/special/polar%5Fbears/ Images: Sea Ice: Claire Parkinson & Robert Taylor Polar Bears: Unknown

  14. Meltwater descending into a moulin, a vertical shaft carrying water to ice sheet base Source: Roger Braithwaite, University of Manchester (UK) Surface Melt on Greenland

  15. Jakobshavn Ice Stream in Greenland Discharge from major Greenland ice streams is accelerating markedly Source: Prof. Konrad Steffen, Univ. of Colorado

  16. Western Antartica Ice Shelves are breaking-up • Larsen 1996 • Ross 2002 • Wilkins 2008

  17. Antarctica Wilkins Ice Sheet Break-up, March 2008 • Wilkins ice sheet in western Antarctica is beginning to break-up • Shown here is a break in 26 mile long iceberg that resulted in the loss of 160 sq. mi. • Total Wilkins ice shelf is 5000 sq mi and up to 820 ft thick; it formed during last 300-2000 yrs

  18. Abrupt Climate Change: Areas Under Water

  19. Tipping Points One of the reasons that we must act now is to avoid nonlinearities, tipping points into a new climate domain Storm severity Loss of ice-sheets Sea level rise Species extinctions Reversal of North Atlantic thermohaline circulation Release of clathrate methane, CO2 from deep ocean

  20. Iowa’s Energy and GHG Future? ICCAC Scenarios for GHG Reductions in Iowa: -- 50% and 90% reductions by 2050 Baseline Year: 2005 Interim Target Years: 2012 and 2020 (not completed) Policy Options: 54 Options evaluated based on their potential for GHG reductions and their cost

  21. Energy Choices – Can we transition from the fossil fuel age? Low Hanging Fruit: Transportation (25% GHG) Buildings (40+% of GHG) Transportation: Gas mileages >100 mi/gal Hybrids to Hydrogen? Hybrids Plug-in hybrids Flex-fuel plug-in hybrids Hydrogen fuel cell cars “…Climate change represents an enormous economic opportunity.” Wm. Jefferson Clinton, 2007

  22. Iowa Climate Change Advisory Council Policy Options -- Cost per ton (CO2eq) reduction High cost Moderate cost

  23. Some promising policy options

  24. Some promising policy options

  25. Some really cost-effective policy options

  26. Some controversial policy options

  27. Midwest Governor’s Accord: 60-80% reduction by 2050

  28. Plug-in Hybrids Advantages Use wind power at night to recharge the battery at a cost of $0.50/gal (thus making wind storable in 200 million car batteries) 50-100 mpg depending on your ratio of commuting to long-haul Disadvantages More expensive cars Recharging stations needed and time-to-recharge

  29. Leadership in Energy Efficiency Buildings GHG emissions associated with our buildings is 40+% of the total Low Hanging Fruit (buildings like a tree… Wm. McDonough, Cradle to Cradle) Change out our capital stocks Cars (5-10 yrs) Wind Power (2-5 yrs) Power plants (50 yrs +) Buildings (50-75 yrs) LEED certification is run by the U.S. Green Building Council, and there are other alternatives

  30. Renewable Energy: Solar PV Homes Solar homes can be fitted with racks of PV cells on the roof SUNSLATES roofing tiles by Atlantis Energy with AstroPower PV modules (a 5 kW system with battery backup and linked to the local utility) 1,000,000 homes in California and Japan are doing it!

  31. Iowa Wind Power Iowa is third in the U.S. in nameplate capacity wind It’s cost competitive $0.05 cents/Kwh Iowa has 1450 MW so far, with another 450 MW in process (8% of total) Green collar jobs (1000s) at wind turbine mfgs. Wind power is clean and renewable, but we need to find a method to store it

  32. Integrated Gasification and Combined Cycle Gasification of the Coal to make a gaseous fuel stream that burns cleaner than the coal itself Combined cycle is more efficient that normal coal-fired power plant (32% thermal efficiency) IGCC plants are considered to be “carbon capture ready” because the gasification stream can be run to produce a more concentrated CO2 gas for economical capture

  33. Carbon Sequestration in deep geologic formations is already commonly used for secondary recovery in oil fields Oil companies have been practicing carbon sequestration (or carbon storage) for decades Rich CO2 streams from petroleum fields are pumped back into the formation to recover more oil and gas Pipelines are already used to transport the gas and to sequester it below 3500 ft as supercritical CO2 (like a liquid at gas/liquid density) Illinois has deep coal beds that could be used for this purpose

  34. Conclusions • We are approaching tipping points in the climate system due to greenhouse gases that requires a concerted global effort within the next 10 years to greatly decrease our emissions (50-90% reductions by 2050) • Transitioning from the fossil fuel age to reliance on conservation, energy efficiency, and renewable energy sources can provide us with: • An enormous economic opportunity & green collar jobs • Energy security • A cleaner environment • A stable climate • Iowa is already a leader and will prosper as a result

  35. What can we do?

  36. We can teach, we can discover, we can serve…

  37. S U S T _ _ N _ B _ E F U T U _ E

  38. Medieval Warm Period (900-1300 A.D.) was not globally as warm as it is now Maunder Minimum in sun spots

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