Prospect for Fusion Energy in the 21 st Century: Why? When? How?

1. Prospect for Fusion Energy in the 21st Century:Why? When? How? Farrokh Najmabadi Professor of Electrical & Computer Engineering Director, Center for Energy Research UC San Diego University of Wisconsin, Madison September 20, 2010

2. We are transitioning from the Era of Fusion Science to the Era of Fusion Power • Large-scale fusion facilities beyond ITER and NIF can only be justified in the context of their contribution to world energy supply. We will have • Different Customers (e.g., Power Producers) • Different criteria for success (e.g., Commercial viability) • Timing (e.g., Is there a market need?) • Fusion is NOT the only game in town! • Is the currently envisioned fusion development path allows us the flexibility to respond to this changing circumstances? • Developing alternative plans and small changes in R&D today can have profound difference a decade from now.

3. Why?Energy and Well Being Most of the data is from IEA World Energy Outlook 2006

4. World uses a lot of energy! • World Primary Energy consumption is 14 TW (2004) • Equivalent to ~0.5 EJ or 11.2 Billion Ton of Oil Equivalent pa • World energy [electricity] market ~ $4.5 trillion [$1.5 trillion] pa • World energy use is expected to grow 50% by 2030. • Growth is necessary in developing countries to lift billions of people out of poverty • 80% of world energy is from burning fossil fuels • Use is very unevenly distributed (average 2.4 kW per person) USA - 10,500 Watts California - 7,300 Watts UK - 5,200 Watts China - 1,650 Watts(growing 10% pa) India - 700 Watts Bangladesh - 210 Watts

5. US Australia Russia France Japan Ireland S. Korea UK Malaysia Greece Mexico China Brazil India Energy use increases with Economic Development • With industrialization of emerging nations, energy use is expected to grow ~ 4 fold in this century (average 1.6% annual growth rate) 10kW

6. Energy supply will be dominated by fossil fuels for the foreseeable future ’04 – ’30 Annual Growth Rate (%) 6.5 1.3 2.0 0.7 2.0 1.3 1.8 Total 1.6 Source: IEA World Energy Outlook 2006 Reference Case (Business as Usual)

7. World Primary Energy Demand is expect to grow substantially • Data from IAE World Energy Outlook 2006 Reference (Red) and Alternative (Blue) scenarios. • World population is projected to grow from 6.4B (2004) to 8.1B (2030) World Energy Demand (Mtoe) 0.5 EJ

8. World uses (& needs) a lot of energy! • World Primary Energy consumption is 14 TW (2004) • Equivalent to ~0.5 EJ or 11.2 Billion Ton of Oil Equivalent pa • World energy [electricity] market ~ $4.5 trillion [$1.5 trillion] pa • World energy use is expected to grow 50% by 2030. • 80% of world energy is from burning fossil fuels • Energy Efficiency has a huge scope but demand is rising faster due to long turn-over time. Conditions for Sustainability/Growth: • Large supply of the energy resource (TW scale) • Acceptable land/resource usage • Minimal by-product stream • Economically feasible technology Fusion Engineering Grand Challenge

9. When:Power Plant Needs and State of Current Achievements

10. Technical Readiness Levels provides a basis for assessing the development strategy • Developed by NASA and are adopted by US DOD and DOE. • TRLs are very helpful in defining R&D steps and facilities. Basic & Applied Science Phase Increased integration Increased Fidelity of environment Validation Phase

11. Example: TRLs for Plasma Facing Components Power-plant relevant high-temperature gas-cooled PFC Low-temperature water-cooled PFC

12. Application to power plant systems highlights early stage of fusion technology development Basic & Applied Science Phase Demo/ 1stpower plant System demonstration and validation in operational environment For Details See ARIES Web site: http://aries.ucsd.edu (TRL Report)

13. ITER will provide substantial progress in some areas (plasma, safety) Absence of power-plant relevant technologies and limited capabilities severely limits ITER’s contributions in many areas.

14. Currently envisioned development path has many shortcomings Reference “Fast Track” Scenario: 10 years + 10 years + 10 years  30-35 years build ITER exploit ITER build + IFMIF + IFMIF DEMO (Technology Validation) ITER construction delay, First DT plasma 2026? IFMIF? TBM Experimental Program is not defined! +10-20 years ~ 2026-2040 1) Large & expensive facility, Funding, EDA, construction ~ 20 years. 2) Requires > 10 years of operation ~ 2060-2070 2070: Decision to field 1st commercial plant barring NO SETBACK Bottle neck: Sequential Approach relying on expensive machines! Huge risk in each step!

15. How:Use Modern Product Development Techniques!

16. Fusion Energy Development Focuses on Facilities Rather than the Needed Science • Current fusion development plans relies on large scale, expensive facilities:* • Long lead times, $$$ • Expensive operation time • Limited number of concepts that can be tested • Integrated tests either succeed or fail, this is an expensive and time-consuming approach to optimize concepts. * Observations by ARIES Industrial Advisory Committee, 2007. • This is in contrast with the normal development path of any product in which the status of R&D necessitates a facility for experimentation.

17. We should Focus on Developing a Faster Fusion Energy Development Path! • Use modern approaches for to “product development” (e.g., science-based engineering development vs “cook and look”) • Extensive “out-of-pile” testing to understand fundamental processes • Extensive use of simulation techniques to explore many of synergetic effects and define new experiments. • Experiment planning such that it highlights multi-physics interaction (instead of traditional approach of testing integrated systems to failure repeatedly). • Aiming for validation in a fully integrated system • Can we divide what needs to be done into separate “pieces” • R&D can be done in parallel (shorter development time) • Reduced requirements on the test stand (cheaper/faster!) • Issues: 1) Integration Risk, 2) Feasibility/cost?

18. Example of modern engineering development • Aircraft companies now design the aircraft through CAD/CFD/Structural analysis codes with verification in wind tunnel and actual flight. • “Conventional” alloy development is a slow and expansive process • e.g., 55oC improvement in upper operating temperature of steel after 40 years of development. • Computational thermodynamics calculations can lead to composition and heat treatment optimization, drastically reducing the time and expanses (See S. Zinkle presentation at 2007 FPA meeting posted on fire Web site).

19. Addressing feasibility of high heat transfer capability of gas-cooled high-heat-flux components • A T-tube design for divertor modules capable of > 10MW/m2 of heat load was developed (ARIES/FZK collaboration). • $80k university experiment at Georgia Tech (2 Master Students) was funded under the ARIES program to test this concept.

20. Scientific basis for the concept was tested under similar dimensionless parameters • Experiments confirmed the predicted high heat transfer coefficient. • Found better coolant routings and illuminated difficulties in manufacturing.

21. Example of Initiatives to address fusion engineering sconces issues • Plasma facing components and plasma material interaction • University based groups to develop and test high-heat flux component concepts • Linear plasmas device with capability of several MW/m2 heat and relevant particle flux on “component-size” test articles. • Radiation-resistant material • User facilities based on existing neutron sources (e.g., SNS) with extensive university participation to define experiments.

22. Example of Initiatives to address fusion engineering sconces issues • Fusion Nuclear Engineering • Address the man-power and limited single-effect data base immediately by starting a program to fund university-based research in FNT (RFP for 3-4 proposals totaling $2M/y, build to $5-6M/year in 3 years). • Start planning for user-facilities in national labs for proof-of-principle and multi-effect tests in national labs (e.g., He loop, LiPb loop, heat sources, etc.) to be constructed in 3-4 years time.

23. A faster fusion development program requires decoupling of fusion technology development from ITER ITER construction delay, First DT plasma 2021? IFMIF? ITER burning plasma experiments 2026-2035 Sat. tokamaks 2016-2035 IFMIF (…-2030) Aggressive science-based R&D utilizing out-of-pile experiments 10 years (2020) Funding Limited 1st of a kind Commercial power plant Driven CTF (low Q) 6 years construction 10 years operation (2020-2035) 2035: Decision to field 1st commercial plant Key is aggressive science-based engineering up-front

24. In summary: Why? How (not to)? • World needs a lot of new supply of energy. • Fusion is NOT the only game in town. • But, it can fit all criteria for energy growth if we solve the fusion engineering grand challenge! • All published Fusion Development Paths are based on large and expensive facilities. This cook and look approach is doomed to failure: • Requires expensive nuclear facilities with long lead times. • Leads to large Risks between steps. • Needs extensive run-time in each step. • No attention to science & technology requirements before fielding a step.

25. In summary: How?, When? • We need to develop a fusion energy roadmap (“Fusion Nuclear Sciences” road-map). • Large-scale facility should be only validation facilities. • Required science and engineering basis for any large facility should be clearly defined and included in such a Road-map. • We need to start implementing such a road-map to show that we are serious (only the “pace” is set by funding). • We need to start work-force development. • Increased funding and emphasis for fusion have always been driven by external factors. • We need to be prepared to take advantage of these opportunities. • It is possible to field fusion power plant before 2050, but we lay the ground work now!

26. Thank you!