The Energy Challenges of the 21 st Century toward an Electric World

1. The Energy Challenges of the 21st Centurytoward an Electric World Hans Björn (Teddy) Püttgen Professeur, Chaire de Gestion des Systèmes Energétiques Directeur, Energy Center Ecole Polytechnique Fédérale de Lausanne Georgia Power Professor Emeritus, Georgia Institute of Technology Fellow IEEE IPLOCA Athens, October 3, 2008

2. Availability and broad access of reliable and affordable preventative and clinical health services world-wide • Production and distribution of food world-wide; convergence with energy production • Production, storage, transport, delivery and end-use of energy Main R & D Challenges of the 21st Century Water resources and cycle

3. Background– (1) The industrial revolution was launched in the 19th century with the invention of the steam machine. The broad-based reliance on coal was initiated. The 19th century was that of coal.

4. Background– (2) • Electricity was the enabling force behind the economic revolution of the 20th century. • The information and communication revolutions happened duing the second part of the 20th century thanks to semiconductors. • The transportation revolution also happened during the 20th century. The 20th century was that of hydrocarbons.

5. Background: demographic explosion In 2050, the world population isexpected to have reached 9.4 billion, an increase of 3.0 billion from 2005. Not onlywill the population significantlygrow but its distribution willalsoevolve: • The population of Europe isexpected to decreasefrom 730 million presently to 649 million. • The population of Africaisexpected to explose to 2050 million compared to 900 atpresent. • The population of Asiaisexpected to reach 5.5 billion compared to 3.9 billion atpresent. • In 2050, Indiaisexpected to have the highest population with 1.8 billion, compared to China with 1.4 billion. Source: United Nations & US Census Bureau

6. Primary energy world wide Source: IEA 2008 *Exclude electricity trade **Other includes geothermal, solar, wind, heat, etc. The energy growth primarily takes place outside of the OECD

7. Electricity production world wide Source: IEA 2008 Primary energy growth: 192 % Electricity growth: 310 % The electrification of the world increases quickly

8. World per capita total primary energy consumption - MWh Source: DOE, 2008

9. Green house gas emissions: CO2 Switzerland CO2 emissions per capita: 5.95 tons CO2 emissions per GDP: 0.18 kg/US$ Austria CO2 emissions per capita: 9.19 tons CO2 emissions per GDP: 0.37 kg/US$ France CO2 emissions per capita: 6.22 tons CO2 emissions per GDP: 0.27 kg/US$ Germany CO2 emissions per capita: 10.29 tons CO2 emissions per GDP: 0.43 kg/US$ World CO2 emissions per capita: 4.18 tons CO2 emissions per GDP: 0.76 kg/US$ Europe 25 CO2 emissions per capita: 8.46 tons CO2 emissions per GDP: 0.44 kg/US$ North America CO2 emissions per capita: 19.49 tons CO2 emissions per GDP: 0.55 kg/US$ China CO2 emissions per capita: 3.65 tons CO2 emissions per GDP: 2.76kg/US$

10. Europeans are very concerned with climate change

11. Ecological footprint Source: WWF

12. Two types of challenges From the data given above, one should come to the conclusion that there are two types of challenges: • In industrialized countries, the challenge is the rational utilization of energy. • In emerging countries, the challenge is a massive increase in energy production while avoiding a catastrophic impact on the environment.

13. Rational end-use of energy

14. Primary power consumption Source: Novatlantis Margin to 2000 W Excess over 2000 W

15. Switzerland’s situation – 2 000 Watt Society The 2000 Watt Society is a metaphor toward a society using energy in a rational and sustainable way.

16. Summary Energy • Primary energy • Reduction to 1/2 by mid 21st century • Reduction to 1/3 by 22nd century CO2 • CO2-equivalent • Reduction to 1/4 by mid 21st century • Reduction to 1/8 by 22nd century

17. 2000 Watt Society means Fossil energy sources Petroleum, gas, coal Personal cars 10 liters/100km (gasoline & diesel) Waste society 350 kg/yr/person Buildings 10 liters fuel /m2 2005 2050 Renewables (sun fuels) Closed circuit materials 150kg/ yr/person Lightweight vehicles 3 liters/100km (gas, H2) Minergie P 3 litres de fuel/m2

18. Rational end-use of energy Buildings We already know how to build intelligent houses, buildings and towns. Issue: Building rotation Focus should be on renovations Electric heat pumps will replace standard furnaces

20. Rational end-use of energyTransportation Veryfastprogressis possible alongseveral transportation technologies, in the public and privatesectors. Needed: agressive and coordinated public policy Plug-in hybrid vehicles represent a huge new market opportunity

21. Rational end-use of energyBiofuels Biofuels and biomasswillplay an increasingly important role. A conflictbetweenfood and energy production must beavoided. A multicriterialabeling system, acceptable and adoptable by consumingandproducing countries, is crucial. Needed: second generationtechnology for cellulosicproducts.

22. The Roundtable on Sustainable Biofuels Ensuring that biofuels deliver on their promise of sustainability

23. The Roundtable on Sustainable Biofuels • Simple, accessible and implemented worldwide • Generic to all crops • Adaptable to new information • Efficient and cheap to measure • In line with WTO rules(use ISEAL code) We are an international multi-stakeholder initiative developingprinciples and criteria for sustainablebiofuels production thatwillbe:

24. E25 Supporters

25. Rational end-use of energy

26. Energy production

27. Energy production It is not reasonable for industrialized countries to askemerging countries to reducetheir short termenergyrequirements.

28. Energy production

29. The energy deficit of China, India & Africa • While the world average of primary power per inhabitant is 2 000 W, it is 900 W per inhabitant in China, India and Africa combined. • To remedy this deficit, the construction of some 3 000 nuclear power plants of 1300 MW each would be required. • The China has already started to add 70000 MW of new generation per year and will do so during the next decade.

30. World wide coal reserves • The coal reserves in the United States, Russia, China, India, and in South Africa are sufficient to fulfill their energy requirements for centuries. • We know how to build coal fired power plants with good energy efficiency and acceptable environmental impact. However, these technologies are expensive to implement and operate. • The question then is: how can industrialized countries ensure that these technologies are used in emerging countries?

31. Energy production by fossil fuels The 21st century will be that of coal. As a result, the three questions are: • Will we be able to ensure that the best technologies are used world wide? • How quickly will we be able to transition to other sources? • What other sources will we be able to rely upon during the transition toward an abundable and reliable source?

32. Carbon cycle management • Legislation • Cap and Trade • Taxes • Sequestration and storage • Precombustion processing • Postcombustion processing • Storage – in geoligocal structures, in oceans, … • Carbon utilization • Enhanced oil recovery - EOR • Energy vector in urban systems • Material

33. Hydro power plants The pursuit of large hydro facilities in emerging regions and countries (China, Africa, South-east Asia) is inevitable and probably desirable.

34. Hydro energy • We need to gain a better understanding as to the climate interactions and implications between the massive water surfaces associated with these facilities. • Countries with significant mountains, such as the alps, by constructing hydro pumped-storage facilities can become the electric energy lungs for entire regions while receiving very good financial compensation for these services. Such large volume energy storage capacities are mission critical for the development of solar and wind energy resources. • Mini and micro hydro facilities will become more and more popular, especially in emerging countries, in conjuncion with CO2 compensation requirements in industrialized countries

35. INGA 3 GRAND INGA WESTCORPROJECT INGA III WESTCOR PROJECT GRAND INGA Water Head (m) Turbine Water flow (m3/s) Number of units Installed Capacity (MW) Generation (TWh/y) 60 6.300 16 3.500* 23,5 150 26.400 52 39.000* 288,0 (*) Without any optimization of the site

36. Photovoltaic • World wide installed capacity: less than 4000 MW • Japan: 1420 MW • Germany: 1420 MW • United States: 480 MW • Switzerland: 26 MW • Average capacity factor with respect to the installed capacity: 17% in the USA and 9.2% in Switzerland

37. Wind • Very fast market penetration. • 74 000 MW installed capacity world wide: • 20600 MW in Gernany • 11600 MW in Spain • 11600 MW in the United States Major manufacturers, such as General Electric and Siemens are major market players – as is an Indian corporation. Average capacity factor with respect to the installed capacity: 27% in the USA and 14.% in Switzerland

38. Positioning of renawables and storage • It behooves utilities to openly and fully endorse all forms of renewable energy, in a transparent and visible manner. • Building on this strategy, a credible communication strategy can be put forward and implemented to inform the public at large as to the various avenues toward a sustainable and environmentally benign generation mix while taking local socio-economic conditions and constraints into account. • Due to the random nature of the raw source, the only way to ensure significant penetration of solar and wind power, while maintaing suitable levels of system availability, is to build massive energy storage facilities – hydro, mechanical, chemical. We need massive R&D in this arena.

39. Nuclear • 433 nuclear power plants are operational in 38 countries (2007). • 130 in western Europe - 59 in France • 128 in America - 104 in the United States Average capacity factor with respect to the installed capacity: 89.9% Etats-Unis and 92% in Switzerland. • 106 in Asia – 55 in Japan, 17 in India • 67 in the former USSR and Eastern Europe • 2 in Africa • Some 100 plants are either under construction or planned in Finland, France, China, India, Brazil,…. • 16% of electricity production in the world. • 78% in France • 42% in Switzerland • 32% in Germany • 19% in the United States • Less than 5% in China

40. Nuclear Withwhat to replace the existing 433 plants? The pursuit of the development of the III+ and IV generationsis indispensable. The developpement of the hydrogeneconomymakeslittlesensewithoutgeneration IV nuclear plants.

41. Fusion The keyenergyquest of the 21stcenturyshouldbetowardcontrolled fusion. Our energy future will look dramaticallydifferentwhethercontrolled fusion willwork or not.

42. ITER site in Cadarache

43. Toward and electric world • Future transportation systems will increasingly become electric. • A more sober consumption of energy requires a heavier reliance on electricity – heat pumps, for example. • Hydro, wind, PV, ocean, fuel cells all use electricity as the energy vector. • We are at the dawn of a nuclear renaissance. • Fusion will use electricity as the energy vector. • We know how to build electric transmission and distribution systems that are highly reliable and with benign ecological impact.

44. Electric power infrastructure

45. Electric power infrastructure Blackout Italy

46. Electricity 56% Oil 21% Coal 3% Gas 19% Reference Scenario:Will the Investment Come? Cumulative Investment in Energy-Supply Infrastructure, 2005-2030 = $20.2 trillion (in $2005) Power generation 46% Exploration & development 73% Transmission & distribution Refining 54% 18% Other 9% $11.3 trillion $4.3 trillion Biofuels 1% $3.9 trillion $0.6 trillion Exploration & development 56% 89% Mining LNG chain 7% Shipping & ports 37% 11% Transmission and distribution Just over half of all investment needs to 2030 are in developing countries, 18% in China alone

47. 4 ECLEER :Centre Européen de Recherche en Efficacité Energétique

48. Energy research during the 21st century – (1) Technological Centralized and decentralized energy production Rational energy end-use Distributed and multi-level energy storage Multi-vector energy transport and distribution Systems Integration of multiple technologies « Plug and operate » Reliability, robustness and safety Acceptability

49. Energy research during the 21st century – (2) Public policy and regulations Roles of the public and private sectors Creation and promulgation of a transparent and stable public policy and regulatory environment Transparent financial incentives and tax initiatives Socio - economic Transparent tarifs and rates Customer behavioral studies Implementation of a socio-economic environment which induces customer behavioral modification. Integrated planning, including infrastructures, energy and water is one of the key issues facing modern cities

50. EPFL Energy Center Development of sustainable energy production, storage, transportation, distribution, and end-use systems and technologies. Activelyparticipate in the formulation and implemen-tation of the private and public sectorpolicies and strategiesrequired to achievesuchdevelopment. Position the EPFL Energy Center as a convenient and competentpartner for the public and privatesectors in a broad range of energy challenges.