1 / 11

School of Earth and Environment, University of Leeds, UK

Introduction and the Importance of Palaeoclimatology. Prof. Alan M. Haywood. School of Earth and Environment, University of Leeds, UK. Talk Outline. Inspiration and approaches to palaeo Climate evolution - the last 80 million years On the shoulders of Giants...

yasir-wheeler
Download Presentation

School of Earth and Environment, University of Leeds, UK

An Image/Link below is provided (as is) to download presentation Download Policy: Content on the Website is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use and may not be sold / licensed / shared on other websites without getting consent from its author. Content is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use only. Download presentation by click this link. While downloading, if for some reason you are not able to download a presentation, the publisher may have deleted the file from their server. During download, if you can't get a presentation, the file might be deleted by the publisher.

E N D

Presentation Transcript

  1. Introduction and the Importance of Palaeoclimatology Prof. Alan M. Haywood School of Earth and Environment, University of Leeds, UK

  2. Talk Outline • Inspiration and approaches to palaeo • Climate evolution - the last 80 million years • On the shoulders of Giants... • Problems in a post-pioneer era • Data and model uncertainties

  3. Why Palaeoclimate?

  4. Why? • Uncertainties highlighted in climate prediction involve aspects of the climate that have changed in the past (e.g. ENSO). • Palaeoclimatology can assess whether these changes are consistent with current theories of the climate system and if not, why not. • Palaeoclimate provides a unique test-bed for models that project large changes in the future to be evaluated using true out-of-sample tests of comparable magnitude.

  5. Inspiration and approaches to palaeo - ENSO as an example • Shift in frequency/amplitude of El Nino • Attribution to warming due to anthropogenic emissions of greenhouse gases?

  6. Inspiration and approaches to palaeo - Policy relevant tipping elements Adapted from Lenton et al. (2008).

  7. Inspiration and approaches to palaeo - Climate and Earth System Sensitivity Earth System Sensitivity Climate Sensitivity Lunt et al. (2010). Nature Geoscience

  8. Last 80 million yrs

  9. Combining data and modelsa challenging relationship at times...

  10. Modelling: On the Shoulders of Giants! The great pioneers e.g.: Eric Barron Tom Crowley John Kutzbach Paul Valdes • Established many of the parameters and attributes of the scientific environment in which we work • We must now add to the tapestry and unravel complexities/contradictions and understand and quantify uncertainties.

  11. Palaeoclimatology: Grand Challenges • Reproducing the observed record of variability and change • Reconciling palaeoclimate simulations with climate archives • Assessment of climate and earth system sensitivity

More Related