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Claire Higgins & David Couch

Claire Higgins & David Couch. BNP Paribas. Spring Conference, Barnsley 2012. Looking ahead: where now for the UK?. Claire Higgins & David Couch BNP Paribas Real Estate. May 2012. A couple of caveats…. How is the economy doing so far?. Source: NS, BNPPRE Research.

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Claire Higgins & David Couch

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  1. Claire Higgins & David Couch BNP Paribas Spring Conference, Barnsley 2012

  2. Looking ahead: where now for the UK? Claire Higgins & David Couch BNP Paribas Real Estate May 2012

  3. A couple of caveats…

  4. How is the economy doing so far? Source: NS, BNPPRE Research

  5. How long till recovery? Source: NS, BNPPRE Research

  6. Where is the growth coming from? .

  7. Unemployment rate high but steady

  8. Private jobs growth counters public losses

  9. Improving balance of full time vs part time jobs

  10. Inflation falls back, as promised!

  11. Capital values have changed course

  12. Capital values have changed course

  13. UK property still attractive to foreign investors £ -35% € -47% $ -48%

  14. If not property, then what?

  15. Investment recovery slow but steady so far…

  16. Overseas investment saves the day Source: BNPPRE, Property Data

  17. Mixed investor priorities for UK assets Source: BNPPRE, Property Data

  18. For some sectors, the recovery has reversed

  19. Rental “recovery” is still patchy

  20. 2012 will be a slow start

  21. All regions grow…it’s just a question of degree Growth relative to UK Economic growth 2012-16 Source: Oxford Economics, BNPPRE Research

  22. Retail Offices Industrial Offices lead, industrial lags

  23. It’s not all about the South East…

  24. High Street retail lags the other sectors

  25. 2014 = party time!

  26. Pointers to the future • Economic recovery will be a slow process • But there are (limited) positive signs that all is not completely lost • Medium term outlook strongest in the regions for the office sector • Property performance modest at best in the near term, but healthy over the medium term

  27. In practice Has the property market stopped? Are there opportunities for landowners, investors, developers? Who is active? What does a good deal look like in 2012 (and in 2013/14/15/16/17)?

  28. Bounce 10,000 hours practice to be world class……

  29. It takes time Long Eaton Stadium Davidsons Grange Meadows

  30. Opportunities • Distressed Assets • Active Management • Re-gears • Change of use • Occupier led

  31. Sectors • Residential - houses • Hotels • Care Homes • Family Pubs • Occupiers

  32. Who is active? • Property Companies • Opportunity funds • Long term strategic players • Housebuilders • Occupiers • Solvent holders of underperforming assets

  33. What does the deal look like? • Excellence – Friendship - Respect • Expectation • Sale or Joint Venture • Timescale • Cash flow • Risk • Overage • Clawback

  34. Thank you & Questions Claire Higgins / David Couch

  35. Claire Higgins & David Couch BNP Paribas Spring Conference, Barnsley 2012

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