Rethinking Urban-Rural and the Barriers Between Statistical and Programmatic Uses

1. Rethinking Urban-Rural and the Barriers Between Statistical and Programmatic Uses Michael Ratcliffe, Census Bureau John Cromartie, Economic Research Service

2. Introduction • The Census Bureau does not take programmatic uses into account when developing statistical geographic area concepts or when delineating areas. • It is important to maintain this separation; we cannot allow concepts to be degraded by program-specific needs, desires, and local biases. • But, recent experience has suggested that we should start a conversation about the interplay between statistical geography for data tabulation/presentation and uses related to policy making and program implementation.

3. What we heard in response to the 2010 proposed urban area criteria • Local planning agencies/transportation planners expressed concerns about changes to boundaries and criteria and impacts on long range planning • Questions raised about the Census Bureau's urban area definitions and the way in which local and state planning groups define and perceive urban areas • Desire for a closer relationship between the urban area concept and criteria and uses in programs and planning • More outreach and discussion with groups using urban/rural definitions for long range planning and policy analysis

4. Urban and Rural in the United States How do we define “urban” and “rural?” • Classifications tend to be dichotomous: • Urban and Rural; • Metropolitan and Nonmetropolitan • Rural/nonmetropolitan are residual categories • Classifications tend to describe: • Form (settlement patterns); or • Function (economic and social relationships)

5. Census Bureau’s Urban-Rural Classification • The Census Bureau identifies and classifies urban and rural areas after each decennial census. • Urban areas of at least 2,500 people have been identified since 1906. • Urbanized areas of 50,000 or more people were first defined for the 1950 Census. Urban places of at least 2,500 people were identified outside urbanized areas. Urban clusters of 2,500 - 49,999 were first defined after Census 2000. • The Census Bureau identifies urban and rural areas solely for the purpose of tabulating and presenting statistical data.

6. Questions for consideration • Do we define urban and rural areas solely for tabulation and dissemination of data about urban and rural populations? • Or, to provide baseline definitions for use in policy analysis and planning? • Are the categories and entities we define, and the criteria used to define them, adequate for planning and policy needs? • How do we manage situations in which program-specific definitions create contradictory goals, comments on proposed criteria, and desired outcomes among local organizations in the same area?

7. Considerations for the Future • Develop an urban-rural continuum identifying the variety of urban, suburban, exurban, and rural landscapes. • Rather than creating a new classification, is there a way to leverage existing classifications to create a continuum? • Identify functional relationships between urban areas. • Combined Urban Areas • Identify urban sub-regions or subdivisions within larger agglomerations.

8. Exurban development: rural Howard County, Maryland, Baltimore-Towson Metropolitan Statistical Area

9. Functional ties between urban areas: 33% of workers residing in the Hartselle urban cluster worked within the Decatur urbanized area, according to Census 2000 data. Decatur, AL Daily commuting flow Hartselle, AL

10. Large Urban Agglomerations: Northeastern Megalopolis

11. Defining rural is a challenge for USDA • We share a common image of rural—open countryside and small towns at some distance from major urban centers—but lack a common definition. • Establishing a common definition is difficult… • drawing a line through a continuum • suburbs combine urban and rural elements • gentle gradations are a U.S. hallmark • …and needlessly limiting • research on rural issues requires different perspectives • federal programs need to target different populations

12. Defining rural is a challenge for USDA • Dozens of definitions exist • Census Bureau • Office of Management and Budget • USDA • HUD, HHS, States, ngo’s, researchers • BUT: All of the differences boil down to two questions: • For any given urban entity, where is the boundary? • What is the minimum population size for an entity to be considered urban?

13. Question 1: For any given urban entity, where is the boundary? Three concepts of urban lead to different boundaries: • Administrative: cities are legal entities defined along municipal or other jurisdictional boundaries • Census Places • Land-use: cities are densely-settled territory—the picture of settlement you get from an airplane • Census Urban Areas • Economic: cities are labor markets—commuting areas extend well beyond densely settled cores • OMB Metro Areas

14. Question 1: For any given urban entity, where is the boundary?

15. Question 2: What is the minimum population size for an entity to be considered urban? • Any rural definition includes some set of towns and villages below a chosen population threshold: • Census Bureau: 2,500 • USDA Rural Utilities Program: 10,000 • USDA Rural Housing: 25,000 • OMB: 50,000

16. Question 2: What is the minimum population size for an entity to be considered urban? • Massive urbanization in the 20th Century dramatically increased the average size of cities and concentrated services into larger regional centers. • Most rural areas are no longer economically organized around towns of 2,500, but are more typically centered around Micropolitan Areas • This argues for higher urban-size thresholds compared with 100 years ago, when higher levels of central-place services were available in smaller towns.

17. Question 2: What is the minimum population size for an entity to be considered urban? • Research offers limited guidance on choosing an appropriate threshold—not enough work applying central place theory • USDA has adjusted eligibility thresholds upward over the years • Census urban-size threshold (2,500) unchanged from horse-and-buggy days

18. Question 2: What is the minimum population size for an entity to be considered urban?

19. Conclusions • Potential to improve efficiency of federal programs • Multiple definitions serve multiple purposes • Choices should be driven by goals: • Tracking sprawl • Studying economic impacts • Providing rural housing subsidies • Making rural business loans