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2008 Fund Estimate Assumptions

Tab 120 Ref. 4.3. 2008 Fund Estimate Assumptions. Presented to the California Transportation Commission June 2007. Fund Estimate Assumptions. Assumptions will guide revenue and expenditure calculations in the Fund Estimate (FE) .

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2008 Fund Estimate Assumptions

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  1. Tab 120Ref. 4.3 2008 Fund EstimateAssumptions Presented to the California Transportation Commission June 2007

  2. Fund Estimate Assumptions • Assumptions will guide revenue and expenditure calculations in the Fund Estimate (FE). • Choices made now will have a lasting impact and need to be based on the best information available. • Two key policy issues are identified that could have a significant impact on the FE. • Federal Obligation Authority (Item SHA 13) • Major Public Transportation Account (PTA) Items

  3. Key Policy Assumptions • Federal Obligation Authority Options (Item SHA 13) • Hold the Federal OA level constant at the 2008-09 level ($17.0 billion). • Escalate the 2008-09 OA level at 1.8 percent, consistent with the projected growth rate for fuel excise tax revenues ($17.6 billion). • Escalate the amount of OA received in 2006-07 at 1.8 percent over the FE period ($15.8 billion). • Escalate the amount of OA received in 2006-07 at 1.8 percent, then hold OA constant over the FE period ($14.9 billion). • Use the AASHTO April 2007 projected SAFETEA-LU estimates, including the drastic OA reduction in 2010 ($16.2 billion).

  4. Key Policy Assumptions • Major PTA Items: • Spillover Revenues (PTA 5) • Section 183.1 Transfer (SHA 9 & PTA 7) • General Fund Expenditures (PTA 12) • Spillover to STA (PTA 11) • Significant Revenue Impact • $1.3 billion in 2007-08 • Up to $5 billion over FE period • Outcome Uncertain • Competing proposals in Legislature

  5. Department Recommendation Delay adoption of FE Assumptions until enactment of the 2007-08 Budget.

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