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MDG Progress in Southeast Asia: Implications for Child Poverty

MDG Progress in Southeast Asia: Implications for Child Poverty. Peter Warr John Crawford Professor of Agricultural Economics Arndt-Corden Division of Economics, Research School of Pacific and Asian Studies Australian National University. The ASEAN countries. Reducing Poverty – MDGs 1-7. 3.

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MDG Progress in Southeast Asia: Implications for Child Poverty

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  1. MDG Progress in Southeast Asia:Implications for Child Poverty Peter Warr John Crawford Professor of Agricultural Economics Arndt-Corden Division of Economics, Research School of Pacific and Asian Studies Australian National University

  2. The ASEAN countries

  3. Reducing Poverty – MDGs 1-7 • 3

  4. MDG Progress

  5. Upper Middle Development Countries Malaysia and Thailand Most indicators already achieved, or on track An outcome of sustained economic growth, combined with concerted government action Some exceptions require attention: - HIV/AIDS in Malaysia - environment in Thailand

  6. Medium middle development countries: Viet Nam, Indonesia, the Philippines Vietnam achieved or on track for most indicators except HIV/AIDS, concern for gender disparity and maternal morality Both Indonesia and the Philippines on track for about half the indicators, off-track for poverty, maternal morality, environment. Concern for primary education (Philippines), HIV/AIDS (Indonesia • 6

  7. Lower Middle Development Countries Cambodia, Lao PDR, Myanmar Off-track for several indicators, including: - poverty (Cambodia and seemingly Myanmar) - hunger, especially child nutrition (all three) - maternal morality (all three) - environment (all three) • 7

  8. Progress towards MDGs 1-7 The richer ASEAN countries have either achieved their MDGs or are on track to do so The poorer ASEAN countries are not on track • 8

  9. Progress towards MDGs 1-7 Why? The reason is not lack of resolve in the poorer ASEAN countries It is lack of resources • 9

  10. High Middle Development Countries MALAYSIA • Status MDG 1-7: • 6 achieved, 1 unlikely (HIV/AIDS) • Concerns and Priorities: • HIV/AIDS prevent further spread of HIV • Consider adoption of enhanced MDGs • 10

  11. High Middle Development Countries THAILAND • Status MDG 1-7: • 6 achieved, 1 unlikely (environment) • Concerns and Priorities: • Deforestation, pollution • Reducing regional disparities • Raising the quality of rural education • Decentralisation • MDG Plus monitoring and reporting

  12. Medium Middle Development Countries INDONESIA • Status MDG 1-7: Mixed • 1 Achieved, 3 Likely, 5 unlikely, 1 ? • Concerns and Priorities • Deforestation • Stagnant poverty reduction, non-inclusive growth • Decentralisation • MMR and health service inadequacies • Under- Nutrition • Gender • Data availability • MDG integration and localisation

  13. Medium Middle Development Countries PHILIPPINES • Status MDG 1-7: Mainly on track • 6 likely, 3 unlikely, 1 ? • Concerns and Priorities: • Wide disparities – Eg. Insecurity + Mindanao • Good policies Implementation • Stagnant poverty reduction, non-inclusive growth • Maternal mortality + population growth • Education quality, and gender disparty • Air pollution

  14. Medium Middle Development Countries VIET NAM • Status MDG 1-7: Successful and On-track • 4 achieved, 3 likely, 1 unlikely, 2 ? • Concerns and Priorities: • Pockets of poverty, rural, fragility • Ethnic minorities lag • Containment of spread of HIV/AIDS • Gender disparities • Reproductive and maternal health • Neonatal deaths • Urban air, water , land pollution • Consistency of data collection, reporting

  15. Lower Middle Development Countries CAMBODIA • Status MDG 1-7: Development progress and strong will but MDGs off track • 1 achieved, 3 likely, 7 unlikely • Concerns and Priorities: • Disparities • Limited MDG integration and coordination • Data collection, analysis, utilisation • Systemic governance and financing issues • Non-inclusive growth and lack of rural focus • Land allocation and utilisation • Deforestation • Maternal mortality and gender • Lowest % access to water and sanitation

  16. Lower Middle Development Countries LAO PDR • 3 on track; 3 not on track; rest uncertain Status MDG 1-7: • Concerns and Priorities: • Child nutrition and general health • Poverty within border regions • Promoting use of skilled birth attendants • Enforcing existing restrictions on logging • Reduce gender disparity in education above primary • Improve access to safe drinking water in rural areas

  17. Lower Middle Development Countries MYANMAR • Status MDG 1-7: • Poverty uncertain, possibly off-track; infant and maternal morality goals off-track; gender disparity and infectious disease on track • Concerns and Priorities: • Poverty within border regions • Child nutrition • Action to prevent spread of HIV • Poverty within border regions • Enforcing existing restrictions on logging • Improve access to data

  18. LESSONS LEARNT • The value of setting goals like MDGs • The importance of central supervision of data collection and analysis • Potential difficulties arising from decentralization • Affordability of health care • Incentive problems in delivery of health care • Enshrining gender equality in law • Investing in infrastructure to reach rural poor • Working cooperatively with civil society • Training does not necessarily lead to capacity building

  19. EXAMPLES OF GOOD PRACTICES • Data collection in Indonesia • Protection of Lao migrant workers in Thailand • Identifying, targeting vulnerable groups in Thailand • Bilateral environmental project - Singapore and Indonesia • Getting health services to rural poor in Brunei • Integration and localisation of MDGs in the Philippines • HIV/AIDS response in Cambodia • Civil society holding governments accountable - Philippines • Taking gender reform to the grass roots - Vietnam

  20. COMMON CHALLENGES Disparities Governance challenges Challenges in tracking progress MDG-specific challenges • 20

  21. Disparities • Differences in MDG attainment within the country exist within all countries. • Sources include: • - Peace and security • - Ethnic minorities • - Remote areas with high transport costs • - Rural vs. urban populations • - Education and skill base • - Centralization vs. decentralization • - Gender issues • - Local participation • - Transparency of government • - Strength of instititions • 21

  22. Governance challenges • Decentralization • Possible conflict between local goals and central government goals • Mismatch between local government funding and responsibilities • Integration of MDGs into planning • Includes Ministries other than just the Planning Ministry • Coordination problem • 22

  23. Challenges in tracking progress The central importance of accurate data Central government supervision essential Limitations on analytical capacity and the role of capacity building The importance of open access to data for independent researchers The problem of timeliness • 23

  24. MDG-specific challenges • The poverty reducing power of growth • Has it declined? • Completion and quality in education • Gender parity in primary education • Maternal mortality is generally off-track • HIV/AIDS • Enforcing environmental protection • Delivering social services in difficult terrain • 24

  25. Poverty incidence and inequality in Laos, 1992 to 2002(Units: per cent, except Gini coefficient) • 25

  26. Laos: Numbers of rural households by road access, LECS 2 and LECS 3 surveys • 26

  27. Laos: Welfare of rural households by road access, 2002-03 • 27

  28. Thanks for listening • 28

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