Trends in the DPRK Agricultural Sector & Implications for Energy Use

1. Trends in the DPRK Agricultural Sector & Implications for Energy Use Hugh Bentley Agricultural Production Economist Oxford, UK

2. DPRK Agricultural Sector & Implications for Energy Experiences in the DPRK – 2000 & 2002 Agricultural Rehabilitation & Environmental Protection – AREP Programme 1998-99 AREP Roundtable Meeting – June 2000 UNDP AREP Evaluation - 2002

3. DPRK - Land Utilisation • Total Land Area 120,000 square km • 80% of DPRK is mountainous • 20% - 2.35m ha suitable for Agriculture • Annual Cropping only 1.23m ha Hugh Bentley Associates

4. DPRK – Major Crops & Outputs - Supply & Demand Balance • Population Estimate 2003 – 22.6 Million (FAO) • Per Capita requirements – 167 kg/person (1600 calories) • Total Demand of Cereals – 5.13 Million tonnes • FAO Crop Estimates 2004/5 – 4.23 Million tonnes • Post Harvest Crop Losses/Seed – 1 Million tonnes • Food Gap – (including harvest losses) – 0.9 Million tonnes Hugh Bentley Associates

5. DPRK – Major Crops & Outputs (FAO Estimates – 2004/5) • Rice & Maize – (1 Million Hectares) – 4.1 Mt • Wheat & Barley – 230,000 tonnes • Rye, Oats & Sorghum – 120,00 tonnes • Beans – 300,000 tonnes • Potatoes (Main Crop & Spring) – 2.2 Mt • Soya Beans – 360,000 tonnes Hugh Bentley Associates

6. DPR Korea Cereal Supply 1997/98 – 2003/04 (millions MT) Hugh Bentley Associates

7. Livestock Population (‘000 head) Category 1997 1998 1999 ~~ 2005 Cattle 545 565 577 578 Pigs 1,859 2,475 2,970 3,200 Sheep 160 165 185 172 Goats 1,077 1,508 1,900 2,750 Rabbits 2.7 2.8 5.2 19.6 Poultry 7.5 8.9 10.4 21.0 Duck 0.822 1.4 1.62 5.5 Geese 0.357 0.462 0.829 N.A. Source: FAO Hugh Bentley Associates

8. AREP – 1998 & 1999 Main Outputs: • Inputs Sub-programme – Fertiliser/Seeds • Rural Rehabilitation – Sea Dykes/Land Use/Cropping • Forestry & Environmental Protection – Tree Nurseries • Capacity Building & Support – Seed Production/Credit Hugh Bentley Associates

9. SECOND THEMATIC ROUNDTABLE ON AGRICULTURERECOVERY AND ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION IN DPR KOREA PALAIS DES NATIONS, GENEVE 20-21 JUIN 2000 Hugh Bentley Associates

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13. Assessment of UNDP Project sin Support of AREP - 2002 • Project Activities: $ 7.3 million • Trust Fund Charges: $ 0.5 million • Government In-Kind: $ 6.5 million • Food-for-Work (1,761 MT): $ 0.5 million • GRAND TOTAL $14.8 MILLION Hugh Bentley Associates

14. AREP Projects Spending by Sub-Project Hugh Bentley Associates

15. Forestry (hectares) Initial Tree coverage is approximately 6 million Deforestation since 1995 - half million Causes of Deforestation Flooding Wood for fuel Land Clearing for agriculture Forestry and Environmental Protection Hugh Bentley Associates

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20. AREP – 1998/2002 Key Implications for Energy: • Post Harvest Losses (thrashing/drying/cleaning) – 15% (FAO) • Early Crop Consumption – 5% (FAO) Other Main Issues: • Shortage of fertiliser for crop production • Machinery repairs - lack of spare parts • Lack of fuel oil for farm machinery & transport • Lack of timely field operations • Deforestation causing soil erosion Hugh Bentley Associates

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23. Future Strategies for Energy • Rehabilitation of Fertiliser Plants • Reduction in post harvest losses through improved machinery, electricity supply and fuel oils • Improvement in energy supply for timing of critical agricultural activities at planting and harvest • Land Re-zoning into larger parcels of land • Promotion of Agro-forestry and forestation to reduce serious soil erosion and long term ecological damage Hugh Bentley Associates

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