Chris McMurray Australian Centre for Population Research , ANU

1. Culture, Catholics and Condoms: Population Planning in Kiribati Chris McMurray Australian Centre for Population Research, ANU

2. Post-colonial Pacific characterised by slow economic but rapid population growth PNG, Solomon Islands, Vanuatu population growth rates all > 2.5% per annum Imbalance is critical in the former Gilbert Is Tuvalu: 10,000 pop, 26 sq km, $US 910 Kiribati: 90,000, 812 sq km, $US 620.

3. Kiribati :92% of pop in Gilberts 41% in South Tarawa

6. 1.8% average pop increase 1947-2000 South Tarawa Other Islands

7. South Tarawa and Betio: Few job opportunities, esp for school leavers overcrowding lack of sanitation pollution infectious disease chronic disease. ,

9. Population Policy • Population education to promote fertility reduction • Development of new growth centres to relieve pressure on South Tarawa • Permanent overseas settlement to limit population increase.

10. What are the prospects for success? The population policy = behaviour modification Only worth modifying if there are benefits Policy success depends on a promise – that future benefits will outweigh present sacrifices ….so….. benefits must come within a reasonable time so the sacrificers receive the benefits.

11. 1. Fertility decline The hardest objective to achieve. I-Kiribati like large families and see children as security • >50 per cent Catholic who oppose modern contraception • Fertility based on individual decisions, while benefits may appear general not individual • Few other ways for women to achieve status.

12. The only real motivator is higher economic returns from children – i.e. big growth in employment opportunities Promoting emigration also has risks • Work opportunities overseas to lead to a brain drain and also may sustain higher fertility.

13. 2. Growth centres Urbanisation promotes lower fertility, but decentralisation is always difficult • Kiritimati only real growth centre – lots of unused land but high cost location • North Tabiteueais based on hospital services • Temaiku is another South Tarawa suburb None likely to generate much employment, so no great incentive to reduce fertility.

14. 3. Permanent emigration Objective = -500 per year…….. …to where???? Even if modified to ‘guest workers’ ……to where? To do what?? Competitors: -> Australia: Nauru, Solomons, PNG -> NZ: Samoa, Tonga, Cooks, Tokelau, Tuvalu.

15. Conclusion Kiribati Population Policy is part of the national development strategy Success depends on substantial economic growth and employment generation… …soon enough to convince potential child bearers that fewer children = economic betterment of their family.

17. Thank You