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UCERF3 Task R6 Fault to Fault Jumping Probabilities: Empirical Surface Rupture Database

UCERF3 Task R6 Fault to Fault Jumping Probabilities: Empirical Surface Rupture Database. Viable ruptures Distance between fault sections (e.g. 5 km) Strikes can’t vary by more than some amount between neighboring subsections (e.g., 45 degrees )

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UCERF3 Task R6 Fault to Fault Jumping Probabilities: Empirical Surface Rupture Database

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  1. UCERF3 Task R6 Fault to Fault Jumping Probabilities: Empirical Surface Rupture Database

  2. Viable ruptures • Distance between fault sections (e.g. 5 km) • Strikes can’t vary by more than some amount between neighboring subsections (e.g., 45 degrees) • Strikes can’t change by more than some total amount • along the rupture length (e.g., 90 degrees) • Rakes can’t change by more than some amount between subsections (e.g., 90 degrees) • Ruptures can’t include a given subsection more than • once (e.g., preventing ruptures from looping back on • themselves)

  3. Empirical Database for fault to fault ruptures Steve Wesnousky’s empirical database for fault steps

  4. Surface Ruptures 1990 Luzon, Philippines

  5. Surface Ruptures 1992 Landers

  6. Surface Ruptures 2002 Denali, Alaska

  7. Surface Ruptures 2001 Kulun, China

  8. Surface Ruptures 1857 Fort Tejon

  9. Surface Ruptures 1939 Erzincan, Turkey

  10. Surface Ruptures 1943 Tosya, Turkey

  11. Surface Ruptures 1945 Mikawa, Japan

  12. Surface Ruptures 1986 Marryat, Australia

  13. Rakes can’t change by more than some amount between subsections (e.g., 90 degrees)

  14. Surface Ruptures 1891 Neodani

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