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Public Transport

Standing Committee on Transport – Urban Congestion Management Working Group National Workshop on Urban Transport Modelling. Public Transport. Professor Graham Currie Chair of Public Transport, Institute of Transport Studies, Monash University. Agenda. Introduction Ten Issues Recommendations.

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Public Transport

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  1. Standing Committee on Transport – Urban Congestion Management Working GroupNational Workshop on Urban Transport Modelling Public Transport Professor Graham CurrieChair of Public Transport, Institute of Transport Studies, Monash University

  2. Agenda • Introduction • Ten Issues • Recommendations

  3. This paper focuses on Public Transport Modelling Issues associated with Urban Congestion • It concerns modelling issues associated with public transport but related to urban congestion in Australia • A major aim is to identify issues and recommendations for COAG • Many of the comments made are relevant to other areas of transport modelling

  4. Recommend- ations Ten Issues It is structured as follows:

  5. Agenda • Introduction • Ten Issues • Recommendations

  6. 2. Issues • Optimism Bias • Predict and Provide • Generality – The 4 Step Problem • Specificity – The PTA Problem • Land Use and Transit • Capacity Constraint • Road Space Allocation • Exogenous Drivers • Post Implementation Reviews • Knowledge Management

  7. Optimism Bias is the cause of the Australian rail forecast ‘disasters’ – have we solved it? • Sydney and Brisbane Airport Railways failed due to forecast error • Flyvbjerg (1996) Rail Patronage Forecasts: • on average, the actual patronage on the sample rail projects was 40% lower than forecast; • at the 95% confidence interval, the patronage was between 19% to 60% lower than forecast • Causes (McGregor and Raimond, 2005): • Strategic Misrepresentation • Judgement Bias • Methodological Bias • Poor Project Definition • Need for Independent • Advice • Need for Informed Second • Opinion • Need to Control Use of • Modelling Results

  8. 2. Issues • Optimism Bias • Predict and Provide • Generality – The 4 Step Problem • Specificity – The PTA Problem • Land Use and Transit • Capacity Constraint • Road Space Allocation • Exogenous Drivers • Post Implementation Reviews • Knowledge Management

  9. The cause of today’s congestion is predict and provide planning – have we stopped yet? Modelling Issues • Modelling the induced demand problem long term • Disappearing Traffic and Road Diets • Accurate representation of wider social effects of traffic congestion • Accurate representation of public transport choices • Exogenous factors influencing demand Traffic Congestion Traffic Growth Need More Road Capacity Predict And Provide Provide More Roads Do Traffic Modelling Study Prove Need for More Roads

  10. 2. Issues • Optimism Bias • Predict and Provide • Generality – The 4 Step Problem • Specificity – The PTA Problem • Land Use and Transit • Capacity Constraint • Road Space Allocation • Exogenous Drivers • Post Implementation Reviews • Knowledge Management

  11. Most PT modelling uses 4 step models – these are hopeless at anything but broad PT forecasting Where does Forecasting a 2-10% PT mode share fit into this level of accuracy? Source: Zhao, Yong and Kara Kockelman. “The Propagation of Uncertainty through Travel Demand Models: An Exploratory Analysis.” Annals of Regional Science 36 (1), pp. 145-163, March 2002.

  12. 2. Issues • Optimism Bias • Predict and Provide • Generality – The 4 Step Problem • Specificity – The PTA Problem • Land Use and Transit • Capacity Constraint • Road Space Allocation • Exogenous Drivers • Post Implementation Reviews • Knowledge Management

  13. Auckland NZ has a Combined 4 Step and PTA Model • Combines the benefit of detail on base PT system usage with multi-modal modelling • Handles the problem of PT expansion into new areas PTA models have more detailed data but have a range of weaknesses Modelling Issues Public Transport Assignment Models (PTA) • Model Public Transport modes only but to a greater degree of detail • Involves good quality origin destination surveys • Focus is shorter term tactical planning • Involves reassignment of trips between PT modes and routes • Based on Fixed or ‘elasticised’ trip matrices. Can be interfaced with MMT models • No representation of ‘choice’ road user markets • Fails to represent impacts of expansion of services into new areas/ new trips • No detailed representation of • Mode split • Trip redistribution

  14. 2. Issues • Optimism Bias • Predict and Provide • Generality – The 4 Step Problem • Specificity – The PTA Problem • Land Use and Transit • Capacity Constraint • Road Space Allocation • Exogenous Drivers • Post Implementation Reviews • Knowledge Management

  15. Most authorities are wondering how to consider transit oriented development in modelling Base Case Networks Base Case Model Base Case Land Use Option Case Networks Option Case Model Option Case Land Use (Transit Oriented Development) Option Case Forecast

  16. Option Case Land Use While land-use transport modelling remains more theoretical than practical Modelling Issues Base Case Networks Base Case Model Base Case Land Use • No before and after data to calibrate land use transport models • Lack of empirical data • Very difficult to understand inter-relationships between land use and networks in models Option Case Networks Option Case Model Option Case Forecast

  17. 2. Issues • Optimism Bias • Predict and Provide • Generality – The 4 Step Problem • Specificity – The PTA Problem • Land Use and Transit • Capacity Constraint • Road Space Allocation • Exogenous Drivers • Post Implementation Reviews • Knowledge Management

  18. Few urban models work under PT capacity constraint though this now dominates big city transit

  19. No solution to the Capacity>Frequency>Growth Conundrum has been found Capacity>Frequency>Growth Conundrum Overloaded Transit Increase Capacity Market Growth Increase Frequency

  20. 2. Issues • Optimism Bias • Predict and Provide • Generality – The 4 Step Problem • Specificity – The PTA Problem • Land Use and Transit • Capacity Constraint • Road Space Allocation • Exogenous Drivers • Post Implementation Reviews • Knowledge Management

  21. Transit priority remains the most efficient use of limited congested roadspace

  22. But modelling of priority is remarkably simplistic Table - Alternative Traffic Flow and Travel Behaviour Modelling Approaches in Public Transport Priority Evaluation Research. Source: Currie G Sarvi M Young W (2006) ‘A New Approach to Evaluating On-Road Public Transport Priority Projects: Balancing the Demand for Limited Road Space” Transportation (published on line 15th Nov 2006 - DOI 10.1007/s11116-006-9107-3)

  23. 2. Issues • Optimism Bias • Predict and Provide • Generality – The 4 Step Problem • Specificity – The PTA Problem • Land Use and Transit • Capacity Constraint • Road Space Allocation • Exogenous Drivers • Post Implementation Reviews • Knowledge Management

  24. We don’t know why big city rail demand is booming Source: VCEC (2006) Inquiry into Managing Transport Congestion Rail Boardings M p.a.

  25. Modelling emphasis is on endogenous factors not exogenous ENDOGENOUS FORECASTS Things that Transit Operators/Planners can change EXOGENOUS FORECASTS Things that affect society as a whole – not controlled by Transit Operators • Fare • Service Level (Frequency) • Travel Time/Speed • Reliability • Service design – route alignment • Amenity provision (seats, shelter, information, quality of the environment, personal safety) • Socio-Economic influences on demand. Such as changes in : • Population • Employment/ Unemployment • Income • Age distribution • Fuel Costs

  26. 2. Issues • Optimism Bias • Predict and Provide • Generality – The 4 Step Problem • Specificity – The PTA Problem • Land Use and Transit • Capacity Constraint • Road Space Allocation • Exogenous Drivers • Post Implementation Reviews • Knowledge Management

  27. Modelling Improvement Post implementation reviews create informed quality modelling….. Option Case Networks Transport Model Option Case Forecast Post Implementation Review

  28. Modelling Improvement …..but are rare as hens teeth Option Case Networks Transport Model Option Case Forecast Post Implementation Review

  29. 2. Issues • Optimism Bias • Predict and Provide • Generality – The 4 Step Problem • Specificity – The PTA Problem • Land Use and Transit • Capacity Constraint • Road Space Allocation • Exogenous Drivers • Post Implementation Reviews • Knowledge Management

  30. Australian knowledge sharing about modelling is dispersed, often lost and almost non existant • Not fully funded or continuous • Limited participation • Limited modelling Transport Professional Associations Industry Advocacy Groups • Good industry knowledge sharing e,g, marketing group • No publications • Limited research • Very limited funding • Single workshop in 25 years on modelling SCOT • Good industry knowledge sharing • Few publications • Nothing on modelling • Doesn’t deal in strategic knowledge transfer • Rarely transit multi-modal • Often ‘Gunzels’/ rail enthusiasts Professional Journals ITE • Not focused on knowledge development • Professional Advocacy Group • Not Transit Related • Limited/No Modelling Publications • Good industry knowledge sharing • Few publications • Road/ Highway specific ARRB • Little Transit • Rather Theorectical • Deals in new knowledge • Poor industry distribution or interest Academic Journals

  31. KNOWLEDGE DEVELOPMENT processes – good people but almost zero dissemination • Consulting • very state/territory based • very limited knowledge sharing (commercial issues/ confidentiality issues/ political issues) • Academia • not much real public transport work • trend towards very theoretical work • Commercial World • concern over intellectual capital rights

  32. The USA has an extensive open inclusive industry participation and knowledge development/ sharing program for all transport research TCRP Structure TCRP Research Process • Free and open to all for suggestions • Transit Agencies/ APTA • TRB Staff/ TRB Committees • FTA/ Universities • Consultants American Public Transportation Association National Academy of Sciences US Federal Government Annual Problem Statements • TCRP Oversight & Project Selection Committee (TOPS) • FTA Strategic Goals and Priorities Problem Statement Selection (Workshops) Transportation Research Board Transit Development Corporation Federal Transit Administration (Sponsor) Project Resourcing TEA 21-Transportation Equity Act for the 21st Century Transit Cooperative Research Program Call for Tenders Research Providers Related Activities American Public Transportation Association TRCP Project Panel Provider Selection Transportation Research Board Research Annual Conference Annual Conference Publication (Free Web Download) TRB Committee Meetings

  33. In PT It conducts knowledge development in 9 fields and 6 program areas, with 4 strategic goals and 5 strategic priorities TCRP Problem Areas Program Areas A Operations B Service Configuration C Vehicle Equi Engineering • Safety and Security • Equipment and Infrastructure • Fleet Operations • Specialized Transit Services • Planning and Policy • Professional Capacity Building • Scheduling • Vehicle Operations • Control Systems • Fare Collection • User Information Systems • Safety and Security • System Planning • Specialized Service Planning • Service Performance • Marketing • Buses • Vans • Heavy Rail Cars • Commuter Rail Vcls • Light Rail Cars • People Movers • Vehicle Components Strategic Goals and Policy Initiatives D Fixed Facility Engineering E Maintenance F Human Resources • Vehicle Servicing • Vcl. Inspectn & Maint. • Vcl Corrective Repairs • Overhaul & Rebuilding • Non-Vcle Maintenance • Maintenance Management • Recruitment • Training • Employee Reviews • JobClassification • Salary Administration • Labor Relations • Performance Imprvemnt • Security Readiness • Ridership • Project Planning and Oversight • Workforce Development • Buildings • Rail Operating Facilities • Passenger Stops and Terminals • Bus Stop Facilities Strategic Priorities G Administration H Policy and Planning J Special Projects • Customer first • Transit in a technologically advanced society • Continuously improve transit • Flourish the multi-modal system • Revistalize transit organizations • Financial Management • Procurement & Inventory Control • Risk Management • Law • Management Info Systems • Transit Organizations • Policy Analysis • Planning • Economics • Environmental Analysis • Areas not covered 166 project reports & 60 industry synthesis

  34. TRB Modelling activities are extensive ADA00: Section - Transportation System Policy, Planning and Process ADB00: Section - Travel Analysis Methods AP000: Public Transportation Group ADB00 Section - Travel Analysis Methods ADB10 Traveler Behavior and Values ADB20 Telecommunications and Travel Behavior ADB30 Transportation Network Modeling ADB40 Transportation Demand Forecasting ADB50 Transportation Planning Applications ADB60TTask Force on Moving Activity-Based Approaches to Practice ADB99AInnovations in Travel Demand Modeling: A Conference AP000 Public Transportation Group AP010 Transit Management and Performance AP015 Transit Capacity and Quality of Service AP020 Emerging and Innovative Public Transport and Technologies AP025 Public Transportation Planning and Development AP030 Public Transportation Marketing and Fare Policy AP035 Transit Fleet Maintenance AP040 Major Activity Center Circulation Systems AP045 Intermodal Transfer Facilities AP050 Bus Transit Systems AP055 Rural Public and Intercity Bus Transportation AP060 Paratransit AP065 Rail Transit Systems AP070 Commuter Rail Transportation AP075 Light Rail Transit AP080 Rail Transit System Design AP085 Ferry Transportation ADA00 Section - Transportation System Policy, Planning and Process ADA10 Statewide Multimodal Transportation Planning ADA20 Metropolitan Policy, Planning, and Processes ADA30 Transportation Planning for Small and Medium-Sized Communities ADA40 Transportation Needs of National Parks and Public Lands ADA50 Transportation Programming, Planning, and Systems Evaluation ADA60 Public Involvement in Transportation

  35. Is it time to do this in Australia If yes, HOW?

  36. Agenda • Introduction • Ten Issues • Recommendations

  37. To tackle all the problems identified we need to solve Australias knowledge development and sharing problem Key PT Modelling Issues COAG Recommendations Optimism Bias Predict and Provide Generality – The 4 Step Problem Specificity – The PTA Problem Land Use and Transit Capacity Constraint Road Space Allocation Exogenous Drivers Post Implementation Reviews Knowledge Management • An Australian Transportation Research Board • Build on the US model • Define priority research and education areas • Scrupulous industry involvement and sharing of all results • ATRF as a national conference federally supported each year • Sponsor research committee to focus research areas like modelling around the national conference

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