Status of the RAINS model development for the review of the Gothenburg Protocol

1. Status of the RAINS model developmentfor the review of the Gothenburg Protocol Markus Amann, CIAM

2. RAINS improvements since the Gothenburg Protocol • Source-receptor relationships from EMEP Eulerian model (50*50 km) • For acid deposition, N deposition, ozone, PM2.5 • Ecosystem-specific deposition • Health impact assessment for ozone based on SOMO35 • Health impact assessment for PM, including differentiation for urban air quality (City-Delta) • Latest critical loads implemented, interface to dynamic models • Emission inventories, projections and control potentials for primary PM emissions • Inclusion of non-technical measures under development (GAINS)

3. Status of input data • For EU countries + Norway + Switzerland: • Emission inventories, • national energy/transport/agriculture projections (19 countries), • emission control potentials and costs validated (mainly for 2020 and 2015) • For other countries in the (old) EMEP domain • Data available, but not validated (consultations with Ukraine and Russia underway) • For other countries in the extended EMEP domain and North America: • Model not implemented

4. What can be done in 2006/2007? • “Baseline projection” of emissions and resulting air quality impacts • For “current national legislations”, ignoring Gothenburg ceilings and EU NECs • Based on national activity projections • For 2015 and 2020, indicative assessment for 2010 • Based on latest impact assessment methodologies • Draft projection in fall 2006 • Preliminary results presented to WGSR 9/2006 • Comments by Parties until end 2006 • Final projection in spring 2007 (for TFIAM)

5. What cannot be done in 2006/2007? • No (re-)optimization of emission ceilings in 2007 • For 2010 data not validated with Parties • For 2015 and 2020 policy debate about target setting necessary