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E conomic Update and Outlook September 18, 2014

E conomic Update and Outlook September 18, 2014. Real Gross Domestic Product. Percent change from previous quarter at annual rate. Q2 4.2%. Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis via Haver Analytics. Real Gross Domestic Product. Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis via Haver Analytics.

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E conomic Update and Outlook September 18, 2014

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  1. Economic Update and OutlookSeptember 18, 2014

  2. Real Gross Domestic Product Percent change from previous quarter at annual rate Q2 4.2% Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis via Haver Analytics

  3. Real Gross Domestic Product Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis via Haver Analytics

  4. Sales of Automobiles & Light Trucks Millions of Vehicles August 17.5 mil. Autos and Light Trucks Light Trucks Autos Source: Autodata Corporation via Haver Analytics

  5. Disposable Personal Income & Expenditures 12 Month % Change Real Disposable Personal Income July Real Personal Consumption Expenditure *Adjusted to remove tax-induced income shifting near end of 2012. Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis via Haver Analytics

  6. Private Single-Family Housing Starts & Permits Millions of Starts & Permits 1990 - 1999 Average Housing Starts Starts July Permits Source: Census Bureau via Haver Analytics

  7. Private Multi-Family Housing Starts & Permits Millions of Starts & Permits Permits July 1990 – 1999 Average Multi-Family Starts Starts Source: Census Bureau via Haver Analytics

  8. Real Private Nonresidential Construction Put In Place 2009$, Billions Twelve-Month Moving Average July Notes: Deflated using the price index for private fixed investment in nonresidential structures. Source: Census Bureau via Haver Analytics

  9. Core Capital Goods Current $, Billions July New Orders Shipments Notes: Core capital goods are nondefense capital goods excluding aircraft. Source: Census Bureau via Haver Analytics

  10. Business Inventory/Sales Ratio Percent Retailers June Total Business Manufacturers Source: Census Bureau via Haver Analytics

  11. Government Contribution to GDP Growth Percent Source: Census Bureau via Haver Analytics

  12. Exports Current $, Billions Source: Census Bureau via Haver Analytics

  13. ISM: Business Survey Indexes DIFFUSION INDEXES: Numbers above 50 percent indicate more favorable responses towards economic activity. Source: Institute for Supply Management via Haver Analytics

  14. Nonfarm Payroll Employment Quarterly average of monthly changes, thousands of persons July & August avg. Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics via Haver Analytics

  15. Initial Unemployment Claims Thousands of Persons, 4-wk MA Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics via Haver Analytics

  16. Civilian Unemployment Rate (and Alternative Measures) Percent Notes: FOMC projection is the central tendency for the Q4 levels, from the June 18, 2014 meeting. Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics & Board of Governors via Haver Analytics

  17. Personal Consumption Expenditure Price Index 12 Month % Change FOMC Projection 2% Longer-run Target July 1.6% Notes: FOMC projection is the central tendency for Q4/Q4 percent changes, from the June 18, 2014 meeting. Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis & Board of Governors via Haver Analytics

  18. Average Hourly Earnings 12 Month % Change August 2.1% Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics via Haver Analytics

  19. Commodity Price Indexes 12 Month % Change 12 Month % Change PPI Core Intermediate Goods (Left Axis) August Commodity Research Bureau Spot Commodity Price Index (Right Axis) Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics & Commodity Research Bureau via Haver Analytics

  20. Gauges of Inflation Notes: Core PCE Price Index includes expenditures on food services. Source: BEA, BLS, & Commodity Research Bureau via Haver Analytics

  21. Federal Reserve System Assets $, Billions Total: $4,459 Miscellaneous: $302 Agency Debt: $42 Agency MBS: $1,678 Total: $2,865 Miscellaneous: $282 Agency Debt: $87 Agency MBS: $844 Treasury Securities: $2,437 Treasury Securities: $1,652 Note: Numbers may not add up due to rounding. Source: Board of Governors via Haver Analytics

  22. TIPS Inflation Compensation Percent 5-Year 5 Years Ahead August 29th 5-Year Source: Board of Governors Research Series via Haver Analytics

  23. Capital Market Rates Percent Corporate BBB Bond Rate 30 Year Conventional Mortgage Rate September 5th 10-Yr. Treasury Bond Rate Corporate AAA Bond Rate Source: BofA Merrill Lynch & Board of Governors via Haver Analytics

  24. Comments/Questions

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