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REDRAWING THE CONSTITUENCY MAP – WITH A CHANGE OF RULES

REDRAWING THE CONSTITUENCY MAP – WITH A CHANGE OF RULES. Ron Johnston School of Geographical Sciences University of Bristol. THE GOVERNMENT’S PROPOSALS. Reduce the number of MPs by 7.7% (from 650 to 600 – was 585) - which necessitates

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REDRAWING THE CONSTITUENCY MAP – WITH A CHANGE OF RULES

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  1. REDRAWING THE CONSTITUENCY MAP – WITH A CHANGE OF RULES Ron Johnston School of Geographical Sciences University of Bristol

  2. THE GOVERNMENT’S PROPOSALS • Reduce the number of MPs by 7.7% (from 650 to 600 – was 585) - which necessitates • Producing a totally new map of constituencies to be in place for general election in May 2015 - for which • The rules will be altered to give primacy to electoral equality.

  3. WHAT HAPPENED BEFORE? Four Boundary Commissions Each must review all constituencies within the relevant ‘country’ every 8-12 years to ensure that there is a reasonable fit to the rules then in force (can conduct interim reviews for particular areas)

  4. THE PREVIOUS RULES - I • The total number of constituencies in Great Britain shall be not ‘substantially greater’ than 613 (currently 632) • The number of constituencies in Wales shall not be less than 35 (currently 40) • The number of constituencies in Northern Ireland shall by 17, unless the Boundary Commission for NI thinks it should be 16 or 18 (currently 18)

  5. THE PREVIOUS RULES - II • The number of constituencies in Scotland shall not be less than 71 until • The Scotland Act 1998, • The 71-seat guarantee removed; • The next (i.e. 2004) review to use the same quota as England (resulted in 59 seats); • Orkney and Shetland (current electorate 33,085) must not be combined with any other area

  6. THE PREVIOUS RULES – III So far as is practicable • In England and Wales no constituency shall cross a county or London borough boundary • In Scotland regard shall be had to local government areas • In Northern Ireland no ward shall be divided between constituencies [For Wales, the counties are the pre-1995 preserved counties’]

  7. THE PREVIOUS RULES – IV • The electorate of any constituency shall be as near the electoral quota as is practicable • Electoral quota is National electorate/constituencies at previous review • This rule can be used to override the county and borough boundary rule if ‘excessive disparity between electorates of neighbouring constituencies’ would emerge

  8. THE PREVIOUS RULES – V • The previous rules can be over-ridden if ‘special geographical considerations ... in particular the size, shape and accessibility of a constituency’ render that desirable • Commissions should not give full effect to all preceding rules but shall take into account, as far as they reasonably can, of • the inconveniences change may create • Any local ties that may be broken

  9. SO WHAT DID THE COMMISSIONS DO - 1? • Calculate the electoral quota • Determine the number of constituencies for each local government area (or combined areas) • Produce provisionally recommended constituencies for each area • Receive representations and, if necessary, hold a Public Inquiry

  10. SO WHAT DID THE COMMISSIONS DO - 2? 5. Receive a report from the Assistant Commissioner 6. Change provisional recommendations and re-consult 7.Maintain recommendations and report to Secretary of State

  11. AND HOW LONG DID IT TAKE? • Last review in England used electoral data for quota from 2000; reported in 2007 • These were used for the first time at the 2010 general election, so were 10 years out-of-date • Size variations 2010 Mean SD England 71,882 6,091 Scotland 65,498 9,987 Wales 56,545 6,501 Northern Ireland 63,101 7,159

  12. LARGE LOCAL VARIATIONS 2000 2010 • Islington (2000 entitlement 1.71 – quota 69,935) • Islington North 61,054 68,120 • Islington South 58,839 67,649 • Brent & Camden (2000 entitlement 4.22) • Hampstead/Kilburn 74,573 79,713 • Holborn/St Pancras 78,307 86,863

  13. WHY ARE THE CONSERVATIVES CONCERNED ABOUT THE SIZE VARIATIONS? Mean electorates in seats won by different parties 2001 2005 2010 Conservative 72,137 72,950 73,031 Labour 67,544 66,802 69,145 LibDem 69,584 69,430 69,610

  14. AND Seats:Votes Ratios 2001 2005 2010 Conservative 50,625 44,516 35,028 Labour 26,111 26,921 33,468 LibDem 96,287 96,485 119,780 [BUT – that includes turnout variations too]

  15. HOW DISADVANTAGED ARE THE CONSERVATIVES? Bias and its Components 2005 2005E 2010 TOTAL 112 94 54 Electorate size 26 19 18 Between countries 6 6 9 Within countries 20 13 9 Abstentions 38 38 31 Third parties 9 8 4 Efficiency 35 34 0

  16. SO THE CONSERVATIVES WANT TO GET RID OF THE SIZE BIAS AGAINST THEM The new Bill proposes? • Fixed number of MPs (600) • Size the predominant criterion, with a 5%+/- variation only, with two exceptions

  17. HOW WILL IT WORK? • Allocate constituencies to the four countries • Allocate constituencies within countries • Delimit constituencies within countries, within the size constraint • Public consultation

  18. APPORTIONMENT AND ITS PROBLEMS Entitlements with 585 seats (2010 electorates) England 38,241,036 491.63 492 Northern Ireland 1,135,835 14.60 15 Scotland 3,864,416 49.69 50 Wales 2,261,816 29.08 29 TOTAL 45,503,103 585 586 Quota 77,783

  19. APPORTIONING 600 Current electorates England 38,241,036 504.24 504 N Ireland 1,135,835 14.98 15 Scotland 3,864,416 50.96 51 Wales 2,261,816 29.82 30 TOTAL 45,503,103 600 Quota 75,839

  20. WHO APPORTIONS, AND WHAT RULES? • D’Hondt or Sainte-Lague? With 585 • D’H E 492, NI 14, S 50, W 29 • S-L E 491, NI 15, S 50, W 29 • Who decides – the four Commissions together? The Electoral Commission?

  21. BUT Guaranteed seats for Orkney & Shetland (33,085) Western Isles (22,226) Should they be within Scotland’s allocation, which would mean 49 seats for 3,809,105, which would be an average electorate of 77,737 instead of 75,839 – should the 5% band be around that figure? (i.e. Scotland 73,851-81,623 and England 72,082-79,630)

  22. OR Should those two seats be outside the general allocation – reducing that to 598 seats, which would give England 503.17 503 N Ireland 14.95 15 Scotland 50.12 50 +2 Wales 29.76 30 598

  23. AND Guarantee that no seat will be larger than the largest now – refers to size not electorate; 13,000 sq km (or is it 30,000?!) Northern Scotland – other than two reserved areas Ross, Skye & Lochaber 51,836 Caithness, Sutherland & Easter Ross 47,257

  24. WHAT ABOUT THE ISLE OF WIGHT? Electorate 109,966 Should it be retained as a single, large constituency or should c.30,000 voters be allocated to a constituency in Hampshire?

  25. ALLOCATIONS WITHIN COUNTRIES Former procedure – counties etc considered separately save in some cases of major discrepancies (London and Mets) not feasible because of the 5% constraint Most units not close to the integer Cornwall 5.52 Devon 11.49 Somerset 5.31 Dorset 7.56 Wiltshire 6.54

  26. SO Commissions will probably have to operate ad hoc, finding groups of counties etc. that have entitlements so that all constituencies will be within the 5% constraint Should they publish these first? Could they be contested – alternative configurations?

  27. WOULD REGIONS WORK? England Northeast 25.78 Northwest 69.23 Yorkshire/Humber 50.40 East 56.19 East Midlands 44.06 West Midlands 53.97 London 69.43 Southeast 82.28 Southwest 52.90 • Poor fits in some cases • Too big to handle as one – need to be subdivided

  28. CREATING THE CONSTITUENCIES Wards always used as the building blocks, and Clegg said he wishes to retain that. BUT this may not be feasible in some (many?) areas because they are too large relative to the size constraint (i.e.+/- c.4000 around the quota)

  29. SCOTLAND AND NORTHERN IRELAND Local government wards large because multi- member (STV used in local elections) Scottish Commission had to break wards in a number of cases in recent redistribution of 73 Scottish Parliament constituencies (under old rules) – one constituency (Edinburgh Southern) comprises 6 part-wards only

  30. METROPOLITAN AREAS • Birmingham – electorate 741,286 in 40 wards, average 18,352 • Sheffield - electorate 383,989 in 28 wards, average (13,713) seat entitlement 5; but 3 with 6 wards each and 2 with 5 each would not fit into the 5% constraint; each constituency would need to be c5.5 wards!

  31. SMALLER BUILDING BLOCKS? • Polling districts – subdivisions of wards for administrative purposes; variable in size etc; no statutory basis; no mapping; subject to change • Postcodes – administrative; no fit with wards; frequent change; errors; no mapping (except Scotland) • Census output areas – nest into wards; but population and dated • Parishes – not urban areas!

  32. A welsh example Lewis Baston and OwainLlyrap Gareth (for ERS Wales) attempted to define 30 constituencies using the new quota and +/-5% Eleven of them involved splitting council electoral divisions (i.e. wards) – including two of the three proposed Cardiff constituencies and both in Swansea

  33. SOLUTION? Commissions will have to take ad hoc decisions, perhaps not using any defined areas (as for Scottish Parliament, 2010) BUT What happens if in public consultation interested parties want to suggest other configurations with different splitting of wards? What data? What software? (Scottish example) Issue could become very difficult to control

  34. PUBLIC CONSULTATION Current rules: • Provisional recommendations published • Four weeks for representations (not Cabinet Office recommended 12) • If either 100 separate objections or one from an affected local authority – Public Inquiry • Assistant Commissioner’s report • Commission either maintain original recommendations or proposes alterations • Consultation again (could be second Inquiry) –even if only name changes

  35. TIME On average it took over a year from publication to final decisions being published in last English review – total time taken 18 months each? BUT Bill requires it all to be done within three years

  36. OPTIONS? • Eliminate public consultation?! • Eliminate Public Inquiries – give 12 weeks for written representations • Increase Commission staffs and (in England at least) number of Commissioners

  37. ISSUES FOR THE REPRESENTATIONS/INQUIRIES • If size is the predominant criterion that the Commissions have to apply, will any alternative scheme have to be at least as good on that criterion, or will it be acceptable if it fits within the size constraint? • What other criteria can be applied – • Local ties • Not changing unnecessarily • Special geographical considerations • Better fit with local authority areas and wards?

  38. FREQUENCY OF REVIEWS? If keeping within 5%+/- bounds predominant, then a redistribution every Parliament might be logical (if unpopular with MPs) – fixed-term Parliaments makes this feasible. Interim reviews of particular constituencies or areas hardly feasible – spillover effects and fixed number of MPs

  39. USE ELECTORAL FORECASTS? • Linked to frequency of reviews • Very difficult (LGBCE experience)

  40. WHAT DO THE COALITION (CONSERVATIVES) EXPECT? Labour will lose their advantage because no longer winning in smaller seats on average LibDems could lose out because some of their pockets of support small – larger could disadvantage them. But many contiguous pockets and increase in average constituency not that great

  41. AND WHAT WOULD BE THE IMPACT? 2010 Conservative 306 297 Labour 258 223 Liberal Democrat 57 53 Other (incl. NI) 29 27 650 600 Estimate that compared to what would happen if number of seats just reduced by 7.7% for each party, a further 15 seats change from Labour to Conservative; no change LibDems or other

  42. ADD IN AV??!? 2010 = AV? AV&= Con 306 297 283 261 276 Lab 258 223 248 229 214 LibDem 57 53 89 82 82 Other 29 27 30 28 28 650 600 650 600 600 BUT – what if preference allocations change at next election reflecting ‘success’ or ‘failure’ of coalition?

  43. KNOCK-ON EFFECTS • Welsh Assembly currently same number of FPTP constituencies as there are HoC constituencies, plus half that number in five regional lists, so will be reduced from current 60 AMs to 45. • Northern Ireland Assembly six members for every Parliamentary constituency – fall from 108 to 90. • Amending legislation?

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