Abigail Rosenberg Range Management Marine Corps Air Station Yuma

1. Legacy Pre-Proposals #1 Development of a Drought Early Warning System#2 Forecasting precipitation using near real-time weather and remote sensing data with multi-objective optimization Abigail Rosenberg Range Management Marine Corps Air Station Yuma

2. Introduction • In 1990, Congress passed legislation establishing the Legacy Resource Management Program to provide financial assistance to the Department of Defense (DoD) efforts to preserve our natural and cultural heritage. • Call for projects that support the military’s mission while promoting long-term stewardship of its natural and cultural heritage. • It requires partnerships w/ other military installations (i.e., MCAS, Luke, and YPG)

3. Drought Early Warning System • The goal of this research project is to develop a real-time monitoring and forecasting system for rangeland productivity in areas critical for Sonoran pronghorn recovery.

4. The specific objectives are: • Develop a decision-support system that provides real-time estimates of biomass production and distribution for in critical habitat of Sonoran Pronghorns. • Produce continuous regional map of pronghorn forage biomass using spatially discrete weather data. • Develop a simple Internet Map Server that will be used to distribute pronghorn forage maps to managers.

5. Background

9. Approach • STEP 1 - Establish a system to automate the acquisition of regional weather data and place the data on the UA/USGS server. • STEP 2 - Identify vegetation monitoring sites which are spatially diverse and represent the major plant communities across the region. • STEP 3 - Calibrate the models using historical data from Organ Pipe Cactus National Monument. • STEP 4 -Develop, calibrate and refine the forecasting models on the pronghorn habitat.

10. Approach (Continued) • STEP 5 - Compare the performance of the two types of models against each other using various statistical measures. • STEP 6 - Using information from satellite imagery to interpolate the output from the models to fill spatial gaps and thus to produce regional vegetation maps. • STEP 7 - Develop a simple Internet Map Server that will be used to distribute pronghorn forage maps to managers.

11. Predictive models require near real-time data Few weather stations exist in the study area Data collected very infrequent 2nd proposal will focus on weather station data “Forecasting precipitation using near real-time weather and remote sensing data with multi-objective optimization” Weather Station Data??

12. Project Goal and Objectives • The overall goal of this project is to quantify and forecast precipitation in support of developing a drought early warning system • The specific objectives are: • Review and compare historical precipitation records from existing weather stations and NEXRAD. • Establish a network of weather stations to gather precipitation and other essential meteorological data. • Use the weather data, NEXRAD, satellite imagery to interpolate the output from the multi-objective optimization modeling to estimate precipitation within the areas of interest. • Use multi-objective analysis to determine the optimal number and location of weather stations to characterize precipitation

13. Partners • Luke Air Force Base, Arizona • Yuma Proving Ground, Yuma, Arizona • The University of Arizona, Tucson, Arizona • Sonoran Pronghorn Recovery Team • Arizona Game and Fish Department • U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service • Cabeza Prieta National Wildlife Refuge • Organ Pipe Cactus National Monument • Kofa National Wildlife Refuge • Imperial National Wildlife Refuge • Cibola National Wildlife Refuge • Tohono O'odham Nation