Global Nuclear Power: Past, Present & Future

1. Global Nuclear Power: Past, Present & Future Dr John Walls

2. Introduction • At present there are over 440 nuclear power reactors operating in 30 countries. In total, they provide about 15% of the world’s electricity. • With 55 nuclear reactors currently under construction and many more ordered we frequently hear talk of a ‘‘Nuclear Renaissance’’. • Enthusiasm for new nuclear build at present is concentrated in Asia and Russia with relatively weaker enthusiasm in Europe and USA.

3. A Brief History of Nuclear Power • The first nuclear reactors were all designed to produce plutonium for their respective nuclear weapons programmes. • ‘‘The development of atomic energy for peaceful purposes and the development of atomic energy for bombs are in much of their course interchangeable and interdependent’’. (Acheson–Lilienthal • Report 1946)

4. A Brief History II • In the post war era, as Britain still had to import relatively expensive oil, policy makers thought that nuclear energy could be a cheap alternative. • The shift from military to peaceful uses of nuclear power gained traction in 1953 when President Eisenhower proposed his ‘‘Atoms for Peace’’ programme, suggested nuclear materials be used to provide ‘‘abundant electrical energy in the power-starved areas of the world’’. • This was beneficial to governments who were keen to develop their nuclear weapons programme away from the glare of public scrutiny.

5. A Brief History III • The optimism and almost euphoria about the possible manifold peaceful uses of the atom captured the imagination of writers and scientists, with claims we would see: ‘‘nuclear powered planes, ships, trains . . . nuclear energy would genetically modify crops and preserve grains and fish’’. (Scurlock 2007) • The cold war enabled nuclear power to be constructed as vital for national security, research into potential safety problems and risks were discouraged.

6. Expansion of Nuclear Power • The large scale use of nuclear power during the 1950s and 1960s was concentrated in the USA, UK, Russia and Canada. • The Euratom Treaty signed in 1957 is one of the founding treaties of the European Union: • ‘‘nuclear energy represents an essential resource for the development and invigoration of industry’’. • It was also touted as a solution to the urban pollution caused primarily by coal-fired power stations.

7. Expansion of Nuclear Power II • As a result, the federal government financed and built a number of demonstration reactors to prove to the Energy companies that nuclear was feasible. • A pamphlet published by the nuclear company Westinghouse in the 1960’s captures the prevailing optimism about the promise of nuclear power: • ‘‘It will give us all the power we need and more. That’s what it’s all about. Power seemingly without end. Power to do everything that man is destined to do. We have found what may be called perpetual youth’’.

8. Expansion of Nuclear Power • One event was to provide a huge boost to the fortunes of the nuclear industry: the OPEC oil crises of 1973–1974. Oil prices quadrupled overnight, making energy independence and energy security key policy issues worldwide. • The period following the oil crisis then witnessed the biggest increase in nuclear plant orders even seen in France, Belgium, Sweden, Japan and the USSR. • In this period of exponential growth a total of 423 nuclear reactors were built from 1966 to 1985 (IAEA 2008).

9. A Period of Decline • The nuclear industry thought the fourfold increase in oil would make nuclear more economic than coal. • Indeed, no new stations were ordered in America after 1978. From the mid 1970s to the mid 1980s 100 nuclear plants were cancelled in the US alone. • During the late 1970s protests against the construction of nuclear plants increased

11. Chernobyl

12. New Nuclear Build since Chernobyl: Possibilities and Challenges • The realisation of the scale of projected increased demand for electricity worldwide, particularly in developing countries. • A growing awareness of the importance of energy security and • The urgent need to encourage low carbon energy generation technologies to help mitigate the threat of dangerous climate change. ‘‘the life cycle GHG emissions per kWh from nuclear power plants are two orders of magnitude lower than fossil-fuelled electricity generation and comparable to most renewables’’. (IPCC)

13. A Nuclear Renaissance?

14. A Nuclear Renaissance? • Worldwide there are 60 new nuclear plants under construction with 131 more proposed, • The new build programme in Europe (excluding Russia) amounts to just six reactors in four countries: Finland, France Romania and Slovakia. • Plans in Europe and North America are overshadowed, however, by those in China, India, Japan and South Korea. • China alone plans a six-fold increase in nuclear power capacity by 2020, and has more than one hundred further large units proposed and backed by political determination and popular support.

15. Why is China pushing new nuclear? • ‘‘blackouts rolled in and factory lights flickered; the grid sucked dry by a decade of breakneck industrialization. Oil and natural gas were running low’’.(Yi-Chong 2010 in 2002) • China’s electricity consumption quadrupled between 1980 and 2000. • Air pollution as a result of burning fossil fuels is estimated to kill 750 000 people a year and economic loss is put at 6% of GDP. Three coal-fired stations are coming online each week in China. • A recent study by BP suggests that ‘‘China can only continue at current rates of production for 38 years before its coal reserves are exhausted. That compares with 245 years in the USA and 105 years in India’’.

16. However Yet again…

17. Fukushima

18. Fukushima: Consequences • Germany will phase out its nuclear plants by 2020 • Italy has imposed a one year moratorium on the construction of nuclear power plants. • A small number content to proceed with new build proposals such as Slovakia with China announcing a pared back nuclear expansion programme. • A report from UBS suggests that at the very least around 30 nuclear plants may have to close as a result of Fukushima, in particular those in seismic zones or close to national boundaries

19. Six Challenges to the Nuclear Renaissance

20. 1. Uranium: A Sustainable Energy Source? • Central to assessing to what extent the current expansion of nuclear power is sustainable is an assessment of the given the reserves of uranium. • Known reserves of uranium are found in relatively stable industrialised countries (Australia 23%), Kazakhstan (15%), Russia (10%), Canada (8%), South Africa (8%) the USA (6%). • Current usage is about 68 000 tonnes of uranium per year, with current resources of uranium estimated at 5.4Mt. At current rates of consumption this will last 80 years. • The investment bank RBC Capital has recently said that the uranium market has moved from oversupply to undersupply in just a few months as China has begun to purchase long-term supplies for new reactors.

21. 2. Nuclear Power Economics • Nuclear power plants are very expensive to build relative to all other forms of electricity production, with a Front-loaded cost structure (high initial investment then relatively low running cost) • A recent MIT report argues that: • ‘‘The track record for the construction costs of nuclear plants completed in the USA during the 1980s and early 1990s was poor. Actual costs were far higher than had been projected . . . The first few US plants will be a critical test for all parties involved’’.

22. Why would you want to spend €3 billion on one of these?

23. Why would you want to spend €4 billion on one of these?

24. Why would you want to spend €5 billion on one of these?

25. Why would you want to spend €6 billion on one of these?

26. The sequence of events… 2011 Decide to build a nuclear station 2014 Get permission to go ahead 2015 Start building the station 2020 Start selling electricity 2080 Stop selling electricity 2081 Start paying for the clean-up

27. Nuclear Power Economics II • The last reactor to be built in the UK, Sizewell B, cost £1.8 billion as opposed to a projected £300 million, and the new EPR reactors being built in Finland and France are both over time and budget. • However, in China new nuclear plants are being built on time and on budget. Reported capital costs are in the range of $1296 – $1790kW–1

28. “Levelised costs” Data from Mott Macdonald 2010 Report to DECC, 2017 “n of a kind”, 10% interest rate

29. 3. Shortages in Skilled Labour and Materials • This includes a lack of skilled engineers, as well as a backlog in orders for machine parts and for reactors vessels. • Labour shortages may impact upon ambitious new build programmes. • Only one facility in the world (Mitsubishi Heavy Industries, Ltd) has the forging capability to manufacture large reactor vessels, which raises questions about the ability of the firm to meet the increasing global demand

30. 4. Nuclear Safety • During the fifty years that commercial power plants have operated worldwide, there have been three serious accidents. • All the serious reactor incidents (Windscale, Chernobyl, Fukushima) involved human error. • The safety record of existing nuclear reactors has improved over time as safety regulations have been upgraded.

31. Nuclear Safety II • There is no nuclear plant design that is totally risk free. • A recent MIT study based on probabilistic risk assessment (PRA), suggests one to expect four core damage accidents up to 2050 • They concluded that this was an unacceptably high number – it should be 1 or less, which is the current expected safety level.

32. Nuclear Safety III • The restructuring of electricity sectors around the world has motivated some operators to place profits before safety. • Undue solicitude for profits of the licensee has played a large role in explaining the mishaps that have occurred at nuclear power plants. • Nuclear power is least safe in environments where complacency and pressure to maximize profits are the greatest.

33. Nuclear Safety. Fukushima • In 2002, the company predicted that all of its seventeen plants might have to be shut down for inspection and repairs, because of falsified inspections and concealment of faults found in inspections that the government ordered; some of the faults were potentially catastrophic’. • As a result a top company official was charged with giving specific orders to hide large cracks in the “shrouds,” or steel casings around the reactor core, in two of the thirteen reactors at which false inspection reports had been filed. • The company ‘repeatedly missed safety checks over a 10-year period up to two weeks before the 11 March disaster, and allowed uranium fuel rods to pile up inside the 40-year-old facility. • This exposes the problem of cost cutting initiated by the chief executive, Masataka Shimizu, in that the company opted to save money by storing the spent fuel on site rather than invest in safer storage options

34. 5. Nuclear Waste Disposal and DecommissioningNuclear Plants

35. Nuclear Waste • Radioactive waste is created at all points in the nuclear fuel cycle: • from uranium mining, • fuel enrichment and • discharges from plants, to the • highly radioactive waste resulting from reprocessing spent fuel and • decommissioning contaminated sites.

36. Radioactive Wastes – the legacy that the UK must manage (UK material only, eventual projected volume at approximately 2120)

37. Nuclear Waste II • The IAEA did not hold its first meeting on decommissioning and permanent waste storage until 1973 – 20 years after the first reactor was built. • Waste slowly emerged as nuclear power’s ‘‘Achilles’ Heel’’. • Across a number of countries the failed attempt to find a site for the geological storage of nuclear waste initiated a period of reflection on the part of the nuclear industry from latefr 1980’s on

40. UK Case Study. Explosion of Public & Stakeholder Engagement Initiatives • Failure of top down technocratic model led to many new initiatives • The BNFL National Stakeholder Dialogue in 1997 was seen as a model for how to change relationships among stakeholders for the better. • Government created a new advisory committee, CoRWM, in 2003.

41. CoRWM Recommendations • Importance of CoRWM recommendations as an integrated package, with three cornerstones: • Geological disposal as end state for all major waste streams • Robust interim storage needed for 100 years or more • Implementation to be based on community willingness to participate, a partnership approach and improved community well being In addition, vital need for a continuing open and transparent process

42. 6. Proliferation

43. Nuclear Proliferation • The Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons (NPT) came into effect in 1968. It stated that those states that already possessed nuclear weapons should not transfer atomic weapons to ‘‘non nuclear weapons states’’. • The NPT is seen to have three pillars: (1) non proliferation, (2) disarmament, and (3) the right to peaceful nuclear technology. • Mohamed El Baradei, Director General of the IAEA, labels the enrichment and reprocessing capabilities of countries the ‘‘Achilles’ heel’’ of the non-proliferation regime, given that countries which possess such technologies have a virtual weapons programme. • This has led some to question the wisdom of a worldwide nuclear renaissance !

44. Nuclear Proliferation II • Countries which adopt the PUREX/MOX may neither have the infrastructure or funds to control its spread. • That said, there are real, though not insurmountable challenges for ‘‘rogue states’’ once they have acquired weapons grade material to actually develop nuclear weapons • One solution is for the USA and other nuclear supplier group countries to lease fuel to countries with small nuclear programmes. • ‘‘The somewhat frayed non-proliferation regime will require serious reexamination and strengthening to face the challenge of the global growth scenario, recognizing that fuel cycle associated proliferation would greatly reduce the attraction of expanded nuclear power as an option for addressing global energy and environmental challenges’’. (MIT 2003)

45. Concluding Comments

46. Concluding Comments • Nuclear power can be an important part of a green energy mix for industrialised countries moving forward • However, we have identified a range of economic, technical and political challenges that limit the speed and depth of any nuclear renaissance • The speed and scale at which the ‘‘nuclear renaissance’’ will occur depends on whether new reactors can demonstrate: • ‘‘better economics, improved safety, successful waste management, and low proliferation risk, and if public policies place a significant value on electricity production that does not produce CO2’’.

47. Walls, J (2011) ‘Nuclear Power Generation – Past, Present and Future’ in Hester, RE and Harrison, R (eds) Nuclear Power and the Environment. London: Royal Society of Chemistry